CNBC / NRF 零售监视器 ， 由 Affinity Solutions 提供支持 ， 2024 年 8 月报告

CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Overview

Key Findings:

• Monthly and Annual Growth: The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, leveraging Affinity Solutions' data from over 140 million credit and debit card transactions, measures the monthly and annual change in U.S. retail sales.
• Seasonal Adjustments: Metrics include both monthly growth, seasonally adjusted, and yearly growth, not seasonally adjusted.
• Industry-Specific Insights: The report provides detailed insights across various sectors including building & garden supplies, clothing & accessories, electronics & appliances, food services & drinking places, furniture & home furnishings, general merchandise, grocery & beverage, health & personal care, non-store retailers, and sporting goods stores.

Methodology:

• Data Source: Utilizes transaction data from more than 140 million credit and debit cards, encompassing nearly nine billion transactions totaling over $500 billion in annual spending.
• Seasonality Adjustment: Applies similar seasonalization approaches as the U.S. Census Bureau to ensure accuracy and consistency.
• Accuracy and Correlation: Highly correlated with the U.S. Census Bureau's revised retail sales figures, without undergoing revisions after initial release.
• Collaboration: Developed in partnership with CNBC, the National Retail Federation (NRF), and Affinity Solutions, incorporating expertise from leading economists and retail specialists.

Comparisons with U.S. Census Bureau’s MRTS:

• Survey vs. Transaction Data: Unlike the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) which relies on surveys of businesses, the Retail Monitor utilizes transaction data for greater scale, accuracy, and reliability.
• Real-Time Insights: Offers near real-time views of retail sales, bypassing the revision process typical of survey-based tools.
• Relevance in Evolving Retail Landscape: Addresses the evolving nature of retail by incorporating high-frequency transaction data, suitable for tracking changes in traditional and emerging retail channels.

Calculation Process:

• Anonymized Aggregation: All data processed through Affinity Solutions is anonymized and aggregated, ensuring no personal identifiable information is included.
• Seasonal Alignment: Seasonal adjustments align with established U.S. Census Bureau methodologies, ensuring consistency and reliability in reporting.

This report serves as a critical tool for understanding the health and trends within the U.S. retail sector, offering insights that are both timely and reflective of actual consumer spending patterns.