煤化工策略日报
能源化工团队 摘要 作者：夏聪聪从业资格证号：F3012139投资咨询证号：Z0012870联系方式：010-68578010 ●甲醇 【市场逻辑】成本端支撑乏力，供应稳中有升，下游需求旺季效应不明显，甲醇市场延续累库态势。 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号成文时间：2024年09月12日星期四 【交易策略】商品市场情绪略好转，甲醇期货暂时止跌，但上行依旧承压，前期空单可适量减持，压力位关注2400-2430附近。 ●PVC 【市场逻辑】成本端企稳回升，PVC供应端预期增加，而需求跟进乏力，社会库存消化速度依旧缓慢。 【交易策略】节前市场资金博弈，PVC期货震荡洗盘，重心依附于五日均线波动，下方支撑关注5280-5300附近。 ●尿素 【市场逻辑】尿素日产达到高位，加之产能投放，货源供应充裕，而下游采购偏理性，后期秋季肥启动后，市场或有所好转。 【交易策略】短期内，尿素期价低位运行，前期空单可适量减持，上方压力关注1830-1850附近。 ●烧碱 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 【市场逻辑】装置检修计划不多，烧碱供应预期回升，下游需求提升缓慢，厂区库存小幅增加。 【交易策略】烧碱期货维持区间震荡走势，重心在2430-2580区间内运行，短期关注能否企稳。 目录 第一部分品种策略观点...........................................................................................................................1第二部分期货行情回顾...........................................................................................................................1第三部分现货市场走势...........................................................................................................................2第四部分期现基差变动...........................................................................................................................4第五部分行业开工水平...........................................................................................................................6第六部分库存数据跟踪...........................................................................................................................7第七部分市场供需现状...........................................................................................................................9 图目录 图1：甲醇收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................1图2：PVC收盘价......................................................................................................................................................................................1图3：尿素收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................2图4：烧碱收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................2图5：甲醇现货市场价...........................................................................................................................................................................2图6：电石法PVC市场价.........................................................................................................................................................................3图7：小颗粒尿素出厂均价..................................................................................................................................................................3图8：32%离子膜碱市场价.....................................................................................................................................................................4图9：甲醇基差.........................................................................................................................................................................................4图10：PVC基差.........................................................................................................................................................................................5图11：尿素基差......................................................................................................................................................................................5图12：烧碱基差......................................................................................................................................................................................5图13：甲醇开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................6图14：PVC开工率....................................................................................................................................................................................6图15：尿素开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................6图16：烧碱开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................7图17：甲醇港口库存.............................................................................................................................................................................7图18：PVC社会库存................................................................................................................................................................................8图19：尿素企业库存.........................................................................................................
