油脂日报：市场等待USDA报告指引，油脂弱势震荡

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2501合约7840元/吨，环比下跌58元，跌幅0.73%；昨日收盘豆油2501合约7670元/吨，环比下跌36元，跌幅0.47%；昨日收盘菜油2501合约8735元/吨，环比下跌57元，跌幅0.65%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8010元/吨，环比上涨150元，涨幅1.91%，现货基差P01+170，环比上涨208元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7770元/吨，环比下跌50元/吨，跌幅0.64%，现货基差Y01+100，环比下跌14元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格8770元/吨，环比下跌50元，跌幅0.57%，现货基差OI01+35，环比上涨7元。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：据国家粮油信息中心，近期国内油粕价格回升，油厂压榨利润好转，加上下游“买涨”心理较强，豆粕采购及提货增多，预计9月份油厂开机率继续维持高位，月度大豆压榨量在900万吨左右，去年同期为840万吨，过去三年均值为816万吨。彭博公布对USDA 9月供需报告中美国农作物产量的数据预测，分析师平均预计，美国2024/25年度大豆产量为45.96亿蒲式耳，预估区间介于44.77-47.4亿蒲式耳，美国2024/25年度大豆单产为53.3蒲式耳/英亩，预估区间介于52-54.9蒲式耳/英亩。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 昨日三大油脂价格持续震荡，油脂供需方面支撑相对较弱，市场等待USDA月报的数据，油脂弱势震荡。棕榈油方面，国内因豆棕价差倒挂仍使棕榈油性价比降低，下游采购维持刚需，虽然处于双节备货期间，但是成交没起色，而且近期宏观偏弱，原油回调，给了棕榈油压力，棕榈油现货基差近期也下跌较多，豆棕价差预计也有回归的需求，行情震荡运行。 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 中性 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析....................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷.................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.........................