香港金融發展局2023/24年報

主席獻辭CHAIRMAN’S MESSAGE 李律仁資深大律師Laurence Li, SC主席Chairman A Chart Speaks a Thousand Words I like charts. They can show wide perspectives and long-term trends.A chart can speak a thousand words. So, let me start this messagewith one. 30GDP The chart below shows the annual GDP growth of Mainland China(the red line), the United States (the purple line), and the OECDmember countries (the green line) for the last 30 years. In the broadest terms, these lines reflect a familiar story. MainlandChina has achieved rapid growth, at far higher rates than for thedeveloped economies. Moreover, it has done this year after year,over a sustained period of time. We in Hong Kong know this story well. We have been part of it andhave benefited greatly from it. 主席獻辭CHAIRMAN’S MESSAGE China: From Rapid to Sustained Growth 2001200714.2% It may be worth reminding ourselves of a few key points in time.China joined the WTO in 2001. As the chart shows, the country wenton a spectacular streak. Growth accelerated, climbing to a peak of14.2% annual growth in 2007. 200720099%2.6%3.4% From 2007 to 2009, the world experienced what economists dubbedthe“Great Recession”. China’s growth slowed to 9%, whilst the US’swent down to minus 2.6% and OECD member countries’as a wholedropped to as low as minus 3.4%. This rather reflects the resilience of the Chinese economy (and somesmart policies too). But it is just impossible for anyone to keeprunning fast, forever. 20106% By 2010, China had overtaken Japan to become the second largesteconomy in the world. It continued to grow over the next decade,gradually settling at slightly above 6% per annum. Considering thesize of the base, this was still amazing. 201920202.2%2.8%4.2%202120222023 In 2019/2020, COVID hit. China’s growth slowed to 2.2%; the US’swent down to minus 2.8%; OECD countries’to minus 4.2%. Asrestrictions subsequently eased, we experience a yoyo: everyonerebounded in 2021, then went down again in 2022, and up again in2023. 2023GDP5.2%2.6%1.6%2024 Present consensus says we have more or less settled at normallevels now. Mainland China’s GDP grew 5.2% in 2023, the US’s2.6%, and OECD countries’1.6%. All are poised to achieve aroundthe same figures for 2024. In short, Mainland China continues todevelop at a pace significantly faster than all other major economiesin the world. Hong Kong: From Bridging to Connecting The above is the overall story. Charts are useful in showing more thanthe overall story. Let us look closer. 10% The gap between the lines is important. For a long time, China wasgrowing many percentage points faster than the developed world. Attimes, it outgrew the US and the OECD countries by more than 10%. When the difference was that big, everyone was interested in China.The potential gain from participating in its growth overtopped anydiscount for unfamiliarity, geographic distance or perceptions of legaland political risks. Going to China was a“no-brainer”. This generateda lot of flows—of people, of capital, and of goods. Hong Kong was the obvious bridge for these flows. So, we chargedtoll fees. Making money was not a“no-brainer”. But it was natural forthe city including the financial services sector. 5.2%2.6%2.6% Now, the gap between the lines is much smaller. Whilst MainlandChina’s 5.2% is twice the US’s 2.6%, the two are only 2.6% apart.Adverse factors could easily net out that difference. — Hong Kong must adapt to this new trend. We need to go from beinga bridge, a more passive role, to being a connector, indeed aproactive super-connector. We cannot wait for flows to come to us;we must go find them and channel them. Five Ways to Super-Connect There are, of course, as many opportunities as our efforts andingenuity shall find for us. For ease of discussion, I would group themunder five headings. First, we shall go out, and go global.In the past, when we spokeof being an“international”financial centre, we tended to have in mindconnections to the West. Now we must go truly global: North, East,South, West, all around the compass. In the last year, the FSDC visited multiple cities in Asia, Europe, andthe Middle East. We entered into new cooperations withorganizations in Luxembourg, Mainland China, Saudi Arabia, andQatar. Going forward, we will cement these relationships and lookeven further to, for example, Eastern Europe and Latin America. The FSDC is also keen to bring visitors from all over the world toHong Kong. Last year we hosted and attended a record number ofconferences, forums, and meetings. Details of both our outboundand inbound activities can be found in the“Market Promotion”section of this annual report. 主席獻辭CHAIRMAN’S MESSAGE Second, we will participate in new ways in China’s continueddevelopment.Decision-makers in Mainland China have longanticipated what my chart now shows. They therefore emphasize“Dual Circulation”, with domestic consumption and investment risingto become a powerful engine of growth. They are also steering theec