稀土行业2024年中期策略：供需格局重塑，底已明待花开

供需格局重塑，底已明待花开 ——稀土行业2024年中期策略 请参阅附注免责声明1       请参阅附注免责声明2 请参阅附注免责声明3 请参阅附注免责声明4 2020-2023 2020-2023 2020 295%327% 451%336%  2020-2021 2019-2021 2020-2021 2020 7%( )2021 23% 15% 72% 2020H1 20207202135 27% 7-9 / 20216 20222  2022-2024 2022 2022/2023 20223 2 28%/21% 202% 4.2/4.5 20223 20232  2023 3 30% 22 2023 / 42.25/737 / 80%/68% 请参阅附注免责声明5 Wind 2020 12 2020-2023 请参阅附注免责声明6 请参阅附注免责声明7  USGS 1.1 4400 40% 20% 19.1% 9.1% 80% USGS 2023 35 REO 24 69% 2023 40% 24REO 美国,1.6%格林兰岛, 加拿大,0.8%其他, 80% 坦桑尼南非,0.7% 69% 澳大利亚, 5.2% 1.4% 0.0% 亚,0.8% 中国美国澳大利亚 其他中国占比 印度,6.3% 俄罗斯,9.1% 巴西,19.1% 越南,20.0% ,40.0% 400000 其他,20% 中国,80% 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 201820192020202120222023 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% USGS 请参阅附注免责声明8  2009 1201120112 2 2012-2019 32020 2020-2021 2022 / Wind 请参阅附注免责声明9 2021  2011 12 5+1”2015 2022 2023 98%2024  2019 112850 2023 96% 19150 2208505 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 北方稀土开采指标占比中国稀土集团开采指标占比 300000 54% 53% 60% 67% 70% 70% 29% 25% 21% 28% 42% 30% 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 轻稀土（吨）中重稀土（吨） 19150 19150 19150 19150 19150 1 2 112850 1 1 90850 20850 48850 20850 20192020202120222023 请参阅附注免责声明10  2024 202426 135000/127000 12.5%/10.4% 6.5/7.9 2024 10140 -7.3% 124860 +14.5% 7.6 24%/76% :2024 23 24 23 24 23 24 28114 30280 90943 94580 109057 124860 yoy -3% 8% 51% 4% 22% 14% 8977 10140 0 0 10943 10140 yoy -5% 13% - - -4.8% -7.3% 37091 40420 90943 94580 120000 135000 yoy -4% 9% 51% 4% 19% 13% 39341 38990 73403 88010 115000 127000 yoy -4% -1% 36% 20% 18% 10% :2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 60310 4730013010 615104850013010 622107021040420492005720030280130101301010140 100%/0% 2700 2700 2700 2700 - 3440344034403440- ()7355010035014165017865094580 14000168000210000255000135000 1208501488501908502358501248601915019150191501915010140 请参阅附注免责声明11  / 2023 6600 2200 60% 30% 21001000 分离稀土氧化物 请参阅附注免责声明12 MoutainPassLynas 11 31% 4.3 12% 1.8 5% MoutainPassLynasUSGS2023MoutainPassLynas20235.8 MoutainPassLynasREO MoutionPass产量Lynas产量 15761 15970 16780 14562 19737 38367 42413 42499 41557 26821 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 MtPass Lynas 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 请参阅附注免责声明13 2023 2023 2023 2023316 2023 3 203010%40%15% 65% 20236202362720238 7 202371820302050 2023 21120302-6 (REO)2050REO4-8 20231024 2023 10 2023 12 2024 1 3 20231215 2024182200 202435.5 Lynas2026 20 30 2024 2024411IREL 4 400%20325000 1.3 请参阅附注免责声明14  2-3 PEA PFSDFS % 2-3 2-3 2-3 Yanggibana Hastings DFS 2025 2167 1.17 NolansBore Arafura DFS - 5600 2.6 BrownsRange NoethernMinerals DFS - 924 0.67 Ngualla PeakResources BFS - 2130 4.75 Lofdal NamibiaCritica PEA 2025 616 0.29 Coola PensanaRareEarth BFS - - 2.6 RoundTop TexasMineralResources PEA 2025 - - BokanMoutain Ucore PEA 2025 522.82 0.653 BearLodge RareElementResource PFS - 1800 3.05 Nechalacho AvalonRareMetals PFS 2025-2026 9474 1.464 NorraKarr LeadingEdgeMaterials PEA 2024-2025 11000 0.5 Kvanefjeld GreenlandMinerals OFS - 101000 1.1 请参阅附注免责声明15 请参阅附注免责声明16 35%  35% 91% 35% 91% 26% / / Wind 请参阅附注免责声明17 2020 19.8% 29.1%  15.0% 2025 2022 消费类电子 2025 节能电器,8.4% 变频空调,9.0% 消费电子,9.1% 其他,3.3% , 37.5% 产品,2.4%,4.6% E 传统汽车,7.5% 工业机器人,12.9% 节能电梯,13.0% , 29.1% ,10.0% , 10.9% , 11.8% , 15.2% ,15.3% 请参阅附注免责声明18  IEA (42% 29.5 15% 2021-20232020 110kw 8.21% 2% 其他 8% 商业和公共 服务业 22% 工业 41% 居民 27% IEACNKI 交通 请参阅附注免责声明 19 2026 1.4  2026 2023-2026 31%2021 2021-20232023 20% 2020-2021300GW5%2023-2026 1.4 30%/35%40%/45%(5pct)2024-2026122/146/172GW GW 200 2026 32%/35%/38%/41% 1.4 2023-2026CAGR31% 2026 1.4 2023-2026CAGR31% - 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E GW 3000 3315 3646 3993 4358 4741 GW 300 315 331 347 365 383 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% GW 60 79 99 122 146 172 20% 30% 32% 35% 38% 41% GW) 12 24 32 43 55 71 GW 200 200 200 200 200 200 2400 4725 6350 8509 11085 14128 97% 34% 34% 30% 27% 480 945 1270 1702 2217 2826 2880 5670 7620 12758 23699 29530 CNKI 请参阅附注免责声明20 31 223 2024 327 2023 12 2024 2 2024 1 2024 2 2024 3 2024 3 2024 3 2024 4 5 202790%75% 2023 25% 5000 1.75% 1 / / 2023 2024 请参阅附注免责声明21 2024-2027 3.7  2024-2027 3.7 2023 2021 30 13 8 80% 2023 1040GW 2024-2027 10%/30%/40%/20%2024-2027104/342/341/268GW35%/40%/45%/50%( 5pct)35%/38%/41%/44%(3pct)2024-2027 0.25/1.04/1.26/1.183.7 2024-20270.25/1.04/1.26/1.18 - 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E GW 3993 4358 4741 5143 GW 347 365 383 402 GW 1140 1136 894 653 GW 104 342 341 268 12% 15% 18% 22% GW 13 52 63 59 GW 200 200 200 200 2548 10397 12576 11801 CNKI 请参阅附注免责声明22 2026 2.95 2026 2.95  2026 2.95 -2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2548 10397 12576 2400 4725 6350 8509 11085 14128 97% 34% 34% 30% 27% 480 945 1270 1702 2217 2826 2880 5670 7620 12758 23699 29530 97% 34% 67% 86% 25% CNKI 请参阅附注免责声明23 2021  ES8 EQC ModelYModel3 U8 e-tron P7 27% 2026 7.8