铅月报：原料未有实质改善 铅价震荡蓄势待涨

原料未有实质改善 铅价震荡蓄势待涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 宏观面看，中美制造业复苏放缓，引发担忧，市场风险偏好回落，且美联储降息预期陷入摇摆旋涡，市场情绪仍有反复。 供应端看，海外铅矿供应缓慢恢复，进口补充有限。铅锭新国标微量元素要求趋严，炼厂或增加向铅矿需求倾斜，铅矿供需偏紧格局短期难扭转。废旧电瓶“反向开票”政策落地仍需时间叠加电池报废料季节性淡季下，价格易涨难跌，成本支撑较稳固。6月原生铅及再生铅炼厂减复产并存，供应增量预期较有限。 李婷021-68556855li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾021-68556855huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看，原料价格向需求传导并不顺畅，然6月铅蓄电池消费进入淡旺季过渡期，消费存边际改善预期，中长期看，终端消费受汽车及电动车高保有量及储能电池逐步发展支撑下保持稳健。 高慧021-68556855gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体看，宏观风险偏好降温，原料铅矿及废旧电瓶供不应求给与铅价刚性支撑，且消费逐步步入旺季，供需有望边际好转，但也需关若铅锭进口窗口开启带来阶段性累库压力，预期6月铅价震荡 调 整 后 重 心 再 上 移 ， 主 要 运 行 区 间18300-19500元/吨。 王工建021-68556855wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 策略建议：区间操作 风险因素：宏观情绪转向，供应超预期增加 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1海内外铅矿产量缓慢恢复.................................................42.1.2内外铅矿加工费降无可降，铅矿进口短暂开启..............................62.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................72.2.1海外炼厂复产，供应边际改善............................................72.2.2原生铅炼厂检修复产并存，原料限制增量..................................72.2.3反向开票助推废旧电瓶价格上涨，再生铅生产存扰动........................82.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................102.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................102.3.2铅蓄电池出口预期下滑且处消费淡季，企业开工或下滑.....................102.3.2 .1沪伦比价延续走强，精炼铅及电池出口均受拖累.........................112.3.2 .2终端消费有韧性.....................................................122.4海外库存高位回落，国内库存先涨后跌......................................13 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2 2024年海外铅矿产量变化（万吨）............................................................................5图表3全球铅矿月度产量情况.................................................................................................5图表4国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................5图表5内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................6图表6铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................6图表7铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................6图表8银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................6图表9全球精炼铅月度产量....................................................................................................7图表10 2024年海外炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）..................................................................7图表11原生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................8图表12原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................8图表13 2024年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）..................................................................8图表14再生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................9图表15再生铅企业开工率......................................................................................................9图表16废电池价格加速上涨......................................................................................................9图表17再生铅企业利润情况..................................................................................................9图表18全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................10图表19全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................10图表20美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................10图表21欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................10图表22铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................11图表23铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................11图表24精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................11图表25精炼铅出口盈亏情况................................................................................................11图表26铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................13图表27汽车产量情况............................................................................................................13图表28汽车保有量................................................................................................................13图表29电动自行车保有量....................................................................................................13图表30电动车产量情况....................................................