铅月报：铅价高位震荡 消费成色待验证

铅价高位震荡 消费成色待验证 核心观点及策略 宏观面看，内外宏观重要会议均落地，市场情绪偏暖，风险偏好抬升，利多铅价。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 供应端，全球铅矿供应缓慢增加，新增项目较少，偏紧格局暂难改变。8月国产铅矿TC环比低位下行，进口TC低位持稳，原料紧张限制原生铅炼厂爬产，预计8月电解铅月度增量2万吨。再生铅方面，铅价反弹带动炼厂利润修复，但原料废旧电瓶供不应求，产量爬升进度偏慢，预计8月产量环比小增。 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾021-68555105huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看，海外经济衰退担忧淡化，需求韧性较强，下滑速度缓慢。比价回升后，铅锭及铅蓄电池出口预期回落，外销增速下滑。但国内即将进入动力铅蓄电池传统消费旺季，叠加政策支持汽车板块消费，有望带动后期启动电池消费，下半年需求端保有较好预期。 高慧021-68555105gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，8月存供需双增预期，原料端偏紧，抬升企业成本，同时需求旺季预期支撑铅价。但终端对高价铅承接缓慢，价格传导不畅限制铅价高度。多空因素交织下，预计铅价维持高位运行，预计沪铅主要运行区间在15500-16200元/吨。 策略建议：高抛低吸 风险因素：挤仓风险，需求远低于预期 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1全球铅矿供应恢复较慢，原料维持紧张格局.................................42.1.2内外加工费偏弱，原料替代增多..........................................52.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................62.2.1全球精炼铅供应逐步回升，下半年海外增量或有体现........................62.2.2炼厂复产电解铅产量小增，铅锭出口缓解淡季累库压力......................72.2.3原料价格易涨难跌，再生铅产量缓慢增加..................................92.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................102.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................102.3.2铅蓄电池消费旺季存较好期待...........................................112.3.2 .1铅蓄电池出口窗口关闭，出口量或环比回落.............................112.3.2 .2终端消费有韧性，但难有强增长预期...................................112.4内外库存同步增加........................................................13 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2全球铅矿月度产量........................................................................................................5图表3国内铅矿产量................................................................................................................5图表4铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................6图表5铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................6图表6银矿砂进口情况............................................................................................................6图表7内外铅矿月度加工费.....................................................................................................6图表8全球精炼铅月度产量....................................................................................................7图表9电解铅产量情况............................................................................................................8图表10原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................8图表11精炼铅出口情况..........................................................................................................8图表12精炼铅出口盈亏情况..................................................................................................8图表13 2022-2023年部分原生铅炼厂电解铅产能变动情况（万吨）.................................8图表14再生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................9图表15再生铅企业开工率......................................................................................................9图表16废电池价格延续回落..................................................................................................9图表17再生铅企业利润情况...................................................................................................9图表18全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................10图表19全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................10图表20美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................10图表21欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................10图表22铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................11图表23铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................11图表24汽车及新能源汽车产量情况....................................................................................12图表25两轮电动车销量情况................................................................................................12图表26汽车及新能源汽车产量情况....................................................................................13图表27移动通信基站产量情况............................................................................................13图表28 LME铅延续增加.......................................................................................................13图表29上期所库存低位回升................................................................................................13图表30交易所仓单维持低位................................................................................................14图表31社会库存淡季累库.........................