波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那国家经济备忘录

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Macroeconomics,Trade & Investment Acknowledgments The Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Economic Memorandum has been preparedby a broad multi-sectoral team of World Bank experts led by Tihomir (Tish) Stuč-ka (Senior Economist, Task Team Leader) and Sandra Hlivnjak (Senior Economist,Task Team Leader). On Chapter 1, the team included Zuhra Osmanović-Pašić (Se-nior Governance Specialist), Jane Hwang (Senior Financial Sector Specialist), RuvejdaAliefendić (Senior Private Sector Specialist), Meliha Kozarić Fanning (Labor MarketConsultant), Steven Pennings (Senior Economist), Guido Damonte (Consultant), Fed-erico Fiuratti (Consultant), Amra Mujabašić (Consultant) and Srđan Kujundžić (Con-sultant). On Chapter 2, the team included Nicolo Dalvit (Economist) and Besart Avdiu(Senior Economist). Finally, on Chapter 3, the team included Rachel Bernice Perks(Senior Mining Specialist), Dzenan Malović (Senior Energy Specialist), Justine MorvenSylvester (Land Tenure Specialist), Efstratios Tavoulareas (Energy Consultant), andUlrike Lehr (Senior Economist). The report was designed by Vigan Kada. The team is highly indebted to Shireen Mahdi (Lead Economist) and Harshit Agrawal(Senior Gas Specialist), who acted as peer reviewers for this report. The team is grateful to Xiaoqing Yu (World Bank Regional Director for the WesternBalkans), Christopher Sheldon (World Bank Country Manager for Bosnia and Herze-govina), Jasmin Chakeri (Practice Manager), Richard Record (Lead Economist), Chris-tos Kostopoulos (Lead Economist) and the Western Balkans Country ManagementTeam for their guidance and support throughout this task. The Bosnia and Herzegovina CEM benefited from the close cooperation with thePrime Ministers’ Offices in the Federation BiH and Republika Srpska, the Ministry ofFinance in the Federation BiH and Republika Srpska, the Ministry of Energy in Repub-lika Srpska, and Republika Srpska APIF. The Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Economic Memorandum was in part supportedby the Umbrella Facility for Gender Equality (UFGE). The UFGE is a multi-donor trustfund administered by the World Bank to advance gender equality and women’s em-powerment through innovation and knowledge creation to help governments andthe private sector focus policy and programs on scalable solutions with sustainableoutcomes. The UFGE is supported with generous contributions from Australia, Can-ada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, the Netherlands, Norway,Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, the Bill and MelindaGates Foundation, and the Wellspring Philanthropic Fund. © This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not neces-sarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map inthis work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning thelegal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encour- ages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or inpart, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attri-bution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressedto World Bank Publications, TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design, layout design and typesetting:Vigan Kada Abbreviations Table of Contents Introduction and Summary9 I.Macroeconomic context in BiH22 I.1.BiH’s growth story24 I.1.1.BiH’s transition through middle income status24I.1.2.Long-term output growth developments in BiH27 I.2.Drivers of output growth30 I.2.1.Expenditure approach30I.2.2.Production approach35I.2.3.Capital, labor, and TFP37I.2.4.Growth from the entities’ perspective Output growth developments40 I.3.Labor market developments50 I.4.Output growth simulations going forward and structural reforms54 I.5.Conclusions and policy options58 II.Private Sector Productivity and Dynamism60 II.1.Aggregate Productivity Trends63 II.1.1.Drivers of Productivity Growth65 II.2.Business Dynamism in BiH66 II.2.1.Business demography, density, and firm size in BiH66II.2.2.Market distortions in BiH68 II.3.Firm-level analysis in RS71 II.3.1.Productivity in RS71II.3.2.Business Dynamism in RS73II.3.3.Signs of misallocation in RS75II.3.4.SOEs in the RS economy77 II.4.Conclusions and Policy Options79 III.Energy transition in BiH80 III.1.BiH’s legal obligations84III.2.BiH’s power supply85III.2.1.Coal89III.3.CBAM: design and regional developments90III.3.1.Background90III.3.2.Legislative carbon pricing dev