地产 ： 每周亮点 ： 希望 + ve 政策基调和较好的交易情绪助力基本面复苏

Weekly highlight:hope +ve policy tone and bettertrading sentiment to help fundamental recovery China’sPolitburo meeting called for research on destocking measures, a topicthathas notbeen mentioned on this level’s meeting since 2016.TheMinistry ofNaturalResource(MNR)requested cities with high inventory to suspendresidential land supply. Chengdu fully removed its home purchase limit despite itis the top performer on both property sales and home price among major cities.Beijing tookanother small step on loosening. These information were interpretedas a big reverse on policy tone.Stocks in the propertysector rallied 44% (50 majornames) after Chengdu’s relaxation and trading sentiment was largelyboosted. Weexpect the positive policy tone and better trading sentiment on propertystockstobring some improvement in industry fundamentals.High-frequency datashowedthat both primary and secondary markets narrowed its decline in Apr mainly dueto lower basement, but it further proved that marginaldemand generated from thesmall stop relaxation may not largely boost sales but could prevent a sharp dropfrompeak season asAprinlast year.For stocks, we prefer PM companies likeCR MixC, COPH, Poly Services, Yuexiu Service and Onewo, property agentsBEKE, and PJM company Greentown Mgmt. For developers, we recommend CRLand with LT value. China Property Sector Miao ZHANG(852) 3761 8910zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hk Nika MA(852) 3900 0805nikama@cmbi.com.hk Related Reports1.Weekly highlight: +ve progress on policyimplementation,noremarkable recovery on sales 2.Property-NBS 1Q24: weaknesswaswell expected,expectingmore financing-side policies3.Weeklyhighlight:WoWsalesrecoveryinterrupted by publicholiday;further observation isneeded4.Weeklyhighlight:Strong WoWrecoveryatMarend,policyrelaxation continued5.New Hope Services (3658 HK)-12%dividend yield with cashbalance > mkt cap;Maintain BUY6.Weeklyhighlight:Tier-1 citiesshowedWoWrecovery,YoYdecline remains deep7.GreentownManagement(9979HK)-FY23 results in-line: >30%NP and 100% pay-out8.2M24NBSdata:Pilingupinventorywith poor sales,hopelies in Mar9.Property-Sales show recoverysign, banks may help semi-SOE10.China Property–Weekly highlight:whichprojects in whitelist aremore likely to obtain incrementalloans? Whatis new?1)Politburo meeting called for comprehensive studymeasures for digesting housing stocks.This isthe first timethatdestocking-related descriptionshave beenmentioned in meetings at thislevel since2016. It was interpreted as a policy tone shift.We thinkthis signals the centralgovernmentis granting local government with more authority to deviseinnovative policies. Recently, c.37 citiesand districtshaveintroduced “trade-in old for new” policies to liquidize the stock with approach of “SOE platformsacquiring old houses” being widely watched. While we think the challengesliein the evaluation of the acquisition price and the local government’sfinancial capacityfor payment as we illustrated in previousreport.2)MNRisalso contributing on destocking by requesting cities with commercial housinginventory month exceeded 36 months to suspend the residential land supply.According to data from E-house, 41 out of 100 sample cities crossed the linewith many of them being Tier 3/4 cities.3)Chengduhas fully removed housepurchase limit that sparked the sector rally of avg. 44% for 50 major namesthe next trading day (Apr 29)given the city is one of the top property salesperformers(YTD decline of 35%vs. industryof-42%) and has the leasthousing price decline among major higher tier cities (-8% from peak point inAug-2021 vs.-15%forother 9 major cities)(Figure 3).More importantlysuch move was decided autonomously by city level department withoutsubmitting for approval to the central MOHURD (Ministry of Housing andUrban-Rural Development), this has largely lifted the market’s expectation onbig relaxation in Tier-1 cities. 3)Beijing also took a further step towardloosening purchase restrictions in non-core areas (details inFigure 2) whilethe incremental demandmaybe limited in our view.Propertysales–YoY decline narrowed in Apr.As of 30Apr,new home sales in 30 major citieswent up 29%/-12% WoW/MoM,andclosed thewhole Apr at a decline of-39% YoY, slightlynarrowed from-47% YoY inMar. YTD decline narrowed 1ppt to-42% YoY. GFA sold inTier-1&2citiesrecorded 31%/-11% WoW/MoM growth, better than 24%/-15% in tier-3cities.Secondary home sales in 17citiesincreased 8%/9%WoW/MoMwiththe YTD decline narrowed 1ppt to-15% YoY.The decline of the full Aprlargely narrowed to-9% YoY from-31% in Mar.Transactionwatch in tier-1 cities.During the 17thweek of 2024 (22-28 Apr),unitsof new homessoldinSHsurged102% WoW driven by supplyincrease (GZ +4%, BJ +14%, SZ +7%). YoY decline for all 4 cities were stilldeep at 31-53%.Unitsof secondary homessoldin BJ went up 12% WoWahead of other 3cities (SZ-1%, GZ-2%, SH-3%). Source:Fang.com,CMBIGM Source:Municipal bureaus ofMOHURD,CMBIGM Source:Municipal bureaus ofMOHURD,CMBIGM Disclosures& Disc