2024年2季度港股市场投资展望：养精蓄锐

2024年2季度港股市场投资展望：养精蓄锐赵文利姜越邹炜2024年3月28日 核心要点一季度港股先跌后反弹，恒指短期在17000点附近仍面临较强阻力，未来需要更多政策利好及基本面的支持才能打开上行空间。随着1月下旬恒指守稳前期低点（2022年10月低点）后反弹，港股熊市尾声的共识正在形成，2月以来南下资金净买入力度不断增强，外资交易型资金也阶段性回流中港股市，港股韧性不断增强。二季度美联储有可能逐步放缓量化紧缩节奏，为年中减息做铺垫，但后续减息路径仍存不确定性。近期美元强势、非美货币承压，令短期流动性偏紧。港股面临的上行催化剂主要包括：港股已陆续确认估值底、政策底、经济底、盈利底和流动性底，安全边际基本锁定；美联储的减息预期逐步强化，有望带来流动性改善；日本央行退出负利率，短期不会触发套息交易平仓潮；中国未来增量政策及经济表现有望超预期。港股面临的下行风险主要包括：下半年美国大选临近，排华情绪容易带来地缘政治和贸易摩擦；美联储降息节奏可能与市场预期出现偏差，如降息间歇期拉长；高利率维持更久的环境下，造成环球商业房地产的进一步恶化；降息之后流动性改善的红利惠及港股的力度可能不及预期，资产配置角度，环球债市和外围新兴市场股票对于外资吸引力可能很高；美股集中度处于历史高位，一旦高位回调会对香港市场造成短期负面冲击；6月开始的欧洲议会选举，极右势力抬头，贸易保护主义风险将显著上升。综合考虑内外环境，预计港股在二季度大致呈现区间震荡的W型走势、前低后高，恒生指数波动区间介于16000-18000点，国企指数波动区间介于5500-6100点，科技指数介于3300-3900点。投资建议：建议二季度维持区间交易和哑铃型配置策略，一方面继续持有高股息蓝筹，另一方面可精选互联网、科技、消费及制造业出海龙头。主题可关注：人工智能+、新质生产力、制造业出海、设备更新改造、以旧换新、消费复苏等。2 Executive SummaryHongKongstocksinitiallyfellbutthenreboundedinthefirstquarter.Meanwhile,theHangSengIndexisstillfacingstrongresistancenear17000pointsintheshortterm.Morefavourablepoliciesandfundamentalsupportwillbeneededtogenerategreaterupside.InlateJanuary,theHangSengIndexfelltoalevelclosetoitsOctober2022low,beforestabilisingwithoutfurtherdeclinesthengraduallyrecovering,leadingtoagrowingconsensusthatHongKongstockshaveemergedfromthebearmarket.SinceFebruary,netbuyingofsouthboundfundscontinuedtostrengthen.ForeigntradingfundsalsoreturnedtotheHongKongandChinastockmarkets.SignsarethatHongKongstockresiliencecontinuestostrengthen.Inthesecondquarter,theUSFederalReserveislikelytograduallyslowthepaceofquantitativetightening,pavingthewayforinterestratecutsinthemiddleoftheyear.Thesubsequentpathforratecutsremainsuncertain.RecentstrengthintheUSdollarandpressureonnon-UScurrencieshavetightenedshort-termliquidity.UpsidecatalystsforHongKongequitiesinclude:HongKongstocksmovingawayfromtheirdarkesthour(thevaluationbottom,policybottom,economicbottom,earningsbottom,andliquiditybottom);limiteddownsideriskgoingforward;theexpectationofFedinterestratecutsstrengthening,possiblyleadingtoliquidityimprovement;theremotelikelihoodtheBankofJapan'sexitfromnegativeinterestrateswillsparkglobalmargincallsonyencarrytrade;andthelikelihoodChina'sfuturepotentialpolicyandeconomicperformancewillexceedexpectations.ThemaindownsideriskstoHongKongequitiesincludetheapproachoftheUSelectioninNovember,anti-Chinasentimentcausinggeopoliticalandtradefrictions;theFed'spaceofinterestratecutsdeviatingfrommarketexpectations(e.g.interestratecutintervalsbeingextended);higher-for-longerinterestratesresultinginfurtherdeteriorationintheglobalcommercialrealestatemarket;liquidityimprovementafterratecutsthatisnotassupportiveasexpectedfortheHongKongstockmarketgiventhatforeigninvestorsmaypreferglobalbondsandotheremergingmarketequities;theall-time-highconcentrationofUSequities,whichwillhaveashort-termnegativeeffectontheHongKongmarketintheeventofapullback;EuropeanParliamentaryelectionstobeheldinJuneleadingtoasharpswingtothepoliticalright,andtheassociatedriskofafar-rightEUandtradeprotectionism.Afterathoroughreviewoftheinternalandexternalenvironment,weexpecttheHongKongstockmarkettofollowaW-shapedpatterninthesecondquarter,startingfromalowandthenrising,withtheHangSengIndexfluctuatingbetween16000and18000points,theHangSengChinaEnterprisesIndexfluctuatingbetween5500and6100points,andtheHangSengTECHIndexfluctuatingbetween3300and3900points.Ourassetallocationrecommendation:Werecommendinvestorsengageinrangetradingfollowingadumbbellallocationstrategyintheequitymarketinthesecondquarter.Wealsorecommendcontinuingtoholdblue-chipstockswithhighdividends,andselectingleadersintheinternet,technology,consumerandoverseasmanufacturingsectors.Finally,werecommendfocusingonthefollowinginvestmentthemes:AI+,newqualityproductiveforces,China'soverseasmanufacturing,equipmentupgradesandtrade-ins,andtheconsumerrecovery.3 港股熊市尾声的共识正在形成数据来源: 彭博、建银国际；数据截至2024-3-19*恒指自1969年对外公开发布，以1964年7月31日为基数日，基数点100点，到1967年8月31日仅有58.61点恒指按月度下跌基本不超过37个月，且在下跌的后半段多呈现波动走高的类似“W”型筑底走势大部分剧烈下跌发生在周期的前半段，而周期的中后段通常是震荡筑底和估值修复阶段，继续大幅下行的空间有限我们此前预测2024年可以看到本轮熊市的末尾，随着1月下旬恒指守稳前期低点（2022年10月低点）后反弹，港股熊市尾声的共识正在形成，韧性不断增强。6008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0001981-061981-081981-101981-121982-021982-041982-061982-081982-101982-121983-021983-041983-061983-081983-101983-121984-021984-041984-061984-081984-101981年7月至1984年7月(36个月)36个月1,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5001986-101986-121987-021987-041987-061987-081987-101987-121988-021988-041988-061988-081988-101988-121989-021989-041989-061989-081989-101989-121990-021990-041990-061990-081990-101990-121991-021991-041991-061991-081987年10月至1990年9月(35个月)35个月8,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,0001999-081999-101999-122000-022000-042000-062000-082000-102000-122001-022001-042001-062001-082001-102001-122002-022002-042002-062002-082002-102002-122003-022003-042003-062003-082003-102003-122004-022004-042000年3月至2003年4月(37个月)37个月12,00016,00020,00024,00028,00032,0002019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-06202