PVC日报：采购积极性依旧不佳，PVC偏弱运行

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 截至3月25日，PVC偏弱运行；因春检缘故，供应存在减少预期；社会库存处于高位；下游制品企业订单不佳；电石价格稳定，出货顺畅；终端采购积极性不佳，整体成交一般。 核心观点 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 PVC偏弱运行。PVC基本面暂平静。装置检修预期下，PVC供应端或有减量，出口方面存在一定提振，但国内需求跟进滞缓，社会库存无法有效去化，市场面临压力犹存。从基本面看利好驱动有限，或难以形成持续性上涨行情。但现货方面因受春检预期及宏观预期支撑，价格相对坚挺，后续PVC运行或仍处于震荡区间中，维持观望。 联系人 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com ■策略 中性。 从业资格号：F03119179 ■风险 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................6图25:PVC社会库存（卓创）丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图26:PVC社会库存（V风）丨单位：万吨.......................................