下游采购积极性不佳，PVC价格偏弱震荡

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 上周PVC周度价格偏弱震荡。PVC装置开工维持高位，而下游制品企业需求处于恢复之中。后续因春检临近行业开工负荷率或有小幅下降预期，此外行业利润承压，不排除超预期检修的可能或对价格有所支撑。但目前下游刚需仍然偏弱，高库存仍然延续。周内出口虽有所放量，但后续持续性有待观察；宏观方面预期依旧向好，但鉴于对地产并不积极的预期以及市场货源并不紧张的局面下预计内需依旧乏力。整体而言PVC基本面目前仍旧偏弱，从目前供给端情况以及需求情况看上行驱动不足，而宏观继续向好且PVC面临春检，下行空间同样有限，维持观望建议。 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 联系人 电石开工率：截至3月7日，周度平均开工负荷率在72.16%，环比上周下降1.49个百分点。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com PVC产量及开工率：截至3月7日，整体开工负荷79.01%，环比下降0.46个百分点。其中电石法PVC开工负荷78.63%，环比下降0.26个百分点；乙烯法PVC开工负荷80.13%，环比下降1.05个百分点。 从业资格号：F03119179 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC检修：截至3月7日，停车及检修造成的损失量在4.491万吨，较上周增加0.588万吨。预计下周检修损失量略增。 PVC库存：截至3月7日，总库存54.66万吨，较上一期增加1.17%，同比增19.16%。 需求：国内下游制品企业开工仍在提升过程中，但原料采购对高价抵触，出口方面本周略有转弱。 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨.....................