库存仍待去化，钢价偏弱运行

主要观点： 报告日期：2024-03-09 ⚫钢材市场：需求逐步复苏，市场稳定运行。 高频数据： 1）钢材价格：Myspic综合钢价指数-1.99%，其中长材、扁平板分别-2.46%、-1.42%。螺纹钢价格为3690元/吨，环比-2.46%；热轧板卷价格3960元/吨，环比-1%。原材料成本：铁矿石价格为877元/吨，环比+0.63%；焦炭价格为2292元/吨，环比-2.94%；焦煤价格为1729.5元/吨，环比-2.86%。 执业证书号：S0010523120003邮箱：wangjz@hazq.com联系人：黄玺 执业证书号：S0010122060011邮箱：huangxi@hazq.com 2）产量：冷轧、热轧、线材、中厚板、螺纹产量分别为86.45（+0.3%）/310.88（+3.53%）/82.1（+4.72%）/147.82（+1.78%）/220.46（+4.84%）万吨。开工率：高炉产能利用率83.11%，环比-0.23pct；高炉开工率75.6%，环比+0.41pct；电炉产能利用率49.09%，环比+10.6pct；电炉开工率58.33%，环比+13.46pct。库存：总社库1764.18万吨，环比+2.3%；总厂库723.35万吨，环比+1.91%；螺纹社库946.03万吨，环比+2.3%；螺纹厂库372.62万吨，环比+5.76%。 ⚫投资建议 制造业需求复苏，钢铁行业盈利逻辑得以重构，钢企在周期轮动中进一步受益，我们长期仍然看好钢铁板块，推荐华菱钢铁，建议关注南钢股份、中信特钢；产品创新推动钢铁在新兴领域应用，建议关注高端产品持续放量的久立特材、冷轧不锈钢领域的高成长性标的甬金股份。 1.寒潮影响下游开工，关注节后复产进度2024-02-252.看好钢铁板块低估值央国企投资机会2024-01-283.整体需求仍然偏弱，节前市场预期保持平稳2024-01-21 ⚫风险提示 原材料价格大幅波动；地产用钢需求大幅下滑；钢材去库存化进程受阻。 正文目录 1.1本周钢铁板块走势...............................................................................................................................................................41.2各钢铁板块走势...................................................................................................................................................................4 2.1个股周涨跌幅.......................................................................................................................................................................52.2公司公告...............................................................................................................................................................................5 图表目录 图表1本周钢铁板块涨幅（%）...................................................................................................................................................4图表2本周钢铁子板块涨跌幅（%）...........................................................................................................................................4图表3本周涨幅前五名（%）........................................................................................................................................................5图表4本周跌幅前五名（%）.......................................................................................................................................................5图表5公司公告概览......................................................................................................................................................................5图表6MYSPIC普钢指数（点）.......................................................................................................................................................6图表7螺纹钢期现价格（元/吨）.................................................................................................................................................6图表8板材价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................................................................6图表9铁矿石及两焦合约价（元/吨）........................................................................................................................................7图表10铁矿石期现价格（元/吨）..............................................................................................................................................7图表11焦炭期现价格（元/吨）...................................................................................................................................................7图表12焦煤期现价格（元/吨）...................................................................................................................................................7图表13焦炭库存：国内247家钢厂（万吨）............................................................................................................................7图表14港口焦炭库存（万吨）....................................................................................................................................................7图表15各品种钢材钢厂库存监控................................................................................................................................................8图表16钢材社会库存：合计（万吨）........................................................................................................................................8图表17钢材社会库存：分类（万吨）........................................................................................................................................8图表18全国钢厂高炉产能利用率（%）.....................................................................................................................................9图表19全国高炉开工率（247家）（%）....................................................................................................................................9图表20样本钢厂电炉产能利用率：全国（%）.........................................................................................................................9图表21全国电炉开工率（%）.....................................................................................................................................................9图表22全国冷轧板卷钢厂实际周产量（万吨）...............................................