纸浆周报：上游林业整体改善，欧洲木浆平衡紧缩

2024年2月18日 上游林业整体改善，欧洲木浆平衡紧缩 商品宏观：未来的种子深埋于过去 上游林业整体改善。2月至今，CME木材期货主力合约均价报收557点，同比上涨+28.9%，连续10个月边际上涨。1月，俄罗斯木制品商业信心指数上涨报收-1点，连续9个月边际改善。 研究员： 潘盛杰期货从业证号：F3035353投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607手机号：166-2162-2706邮箱：panshengjie_qh@chinastock.com.cn微博： 1月，欧洲木胶平衡继续紧缩：欧洲漂针木浆消费量增量报收27.1万吨，本色木浆消费量增量报收1.1万吨，合计28.2万吨，同比增量+460.6%，连续3个月边际增量；欧洲漂针木浆库存量去库报收23.4万吨，本色木浆库存量持平报收0.9万吨，合计24.3万吨，同比去库-9.3%，连续4个月边际去库。需关注的是，德国1月商业信心指数仍在走弱。 海运费继续回升。2月至今，波罗的海干散货指数下跌报收1451点，同比上涨+120.4%，前值为+77.9%，连续4个月边际上涨。2月至今，国内集装箱出口运价指数美东航线上涨报收1312点，同比上涨+12.1%，连续5个月边际上涨。 国内台湾地区造纸业改善。1月，台湾木浆及回收纸制品进口指数上涨报收94.5点，同比减少-1.4%，前值为-2.3%，连续5个月边际增量。1月，台湾造纸及印刷机械出口金额减量报收0.61万美元，同比增量+10.3%，连续6个月边际增量。 基本面改善。 目录 一、说明.....................................................................................................................................6 1、综合指数...........................................................................................................................10 三、宏观供应.........................................................................................................................11 1、海外数据...........................................................................................................................11 A.美国新屋开工.............................................................................................................11 四、微观供应|木材端............................................................................................................12 1、海外数据...........................................................................................................................12 A.CME木材期货...........................................................................................................12B.俄罗斯木材业.............................................................................................................13C.南非锯木业销售.........................................................................................................15 2、国内数据...........................................................................................................................15 A.进口量-锯材...............................................................................................................15 五、贸易流通|纸浆端............................................................................................................17 1、绝对价格...........................................................................................................................17 2、相对价差...........................................................................................................................18 A.交割利润：人民币针叶浆基差季节性..................................................................18B.交割利润：美元针叶浆（银星）基差季节性......................................................22C.跨品种价差：非标基差&加工利润.....................................................................26 3、海外数据...........................................................................................................................30 A.波罗的海干散货指数................................................................................................30B.进口金额-美国纸浆及废纸......................................................................................31C.加拿大交通运输.........................................................................................................32 D.欧洲纸浆库存&消费.................................................................................................32E.日本纸浆......................................................................................................................34F.韩国贸易顺差-回收纸...............................................................................................36 4、国内数据...........................................................................................................................36 A.进口量-纸浆...............................................................................................................36B.纸浆产量.....................................................................................................................38C.纸浆库存.....................................................................................................................39D.沿海货物吞吐总量....................................................................................................40E.进出口总额.................................................................................................................41F.CCFI出口集装箱运价-美东航线.............................................................................41 1、海外数据...........................................................................................................................43 A.美国造纸业.................................................................................................................43B.纸制品CPI..................................................................................................................45C.纸制品销售金额.........................................................................................................48D.泰国造纸业劳动成本...........................