聚烯烃日报：原油价格回落，成本支撑减弱

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议暂观望。聚烯烃现货再度下行，盘面窄幅波动。油价下行，成本下滑对聚烯烃价格支撑减弱，原油制LL至盈亏平衡附近，原油制PP与PDH仍亏损。石化库存高位，上游企业库存压力较大，去化速率偏慢。下游终端工厂尚未完全复工，需求恢复缓慢，市场成交有限。LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭，PP出口窗口打开。预计短期维持震荡走势，仍需关注需求端复工情况。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存96.5万吨，较上一日去库0.5万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差在-70元/吨，PP华东基差在-80元/吨。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际油价回落，原油制LL至盈亏平衡附近，原油制PP与PDH仍亏损。上海石化5PE装置停车，预计停车一天。茂名石化30 PP装置重启、东莞巨正源30 PP装置停车检修。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭，PP出口窗口打开。 ■策略 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨..........................