LPG期货周报：供应预期转松，后续关注需求端恢复情况

2024-01-07LPG期货周报本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。广发期货APP微信公众号作者：张晓珍联系人：欧楚晗联系方式：020-88818025张晓珍从业资格：F0288167投资咨询资格：Z0003135供应预期转松，后续关注需求端恢复情况 主要观点本周策略LPG中东地缘扰动仍存，利比亚油田关闭，油价随着利多消息的消化也逐渐回温。圣诞周成品油消费表现疲弱，市场风险偏好下滑。宏观情绪压制下，关注OPEC+新一轮挺价预期以及降息预期再度回温。LPG基本面来看，本周到港量较上周变化不大，港口库存连续七周下降后首度反弹。红海扰动仍存，运输船只转为选择巴拿马运河，拥堵天数上升。下游烷基化以及MTBE开工率均有回升，PDH利润仍位于低位，但开工率小幅反弹，下周若浙江某PDH装置重启成功，则开工率会进一步上涨。总的来说，随着到港量的恢复，供应预期偏松，后续持续关注下游需求的修复程度是否能再次对盘面有所提振。区间震荡，建议离场观望。区间震荡，建议离场观望 目录行情回顾LPG相关价格及价差LPG供需情况010203 一、行情回顾 走势回顾LPG盘面价格在节后第一天拉涨而后下跌 华南现货情况山东现货情况醚后碳四现货情况华东现货情况数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、Wind、彭博、广发期货发展研究中心一月CP高开，且节后下游补货回归市场，多地价格回弹0.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01华南现货价格20212022202320240.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01山东现货价格20212022202320242000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01华东现货价格20212022202320240.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01醚后碳四现货价格2021202220232024 LPG广州基差情况LPG山东基差情况醚后碳四基差LPG华东基差情况数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、Wind、彭博、广发期货发展研究中心现货价格坚挺略有上涨，期货价格快速拉升后震荡下滑，各地区基差走强-1500.00-1000.00-500.000.00500.001000.001500.002000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01广州基差2021202220232024-1000.00-500.000.00500.001000.001500.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01山东基差2021202220232024-1500.00-1000.00-500.000.00500.001000.001500.002000.002500.003000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01醚后碳四基差2021202220232024-1500.00-1000.00-500.000.00500.001000.001500.002000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01华东基差2021202220232024 LPG02-03（单位：元/吨）LPG03-04（单位：元/吨）LPG04-05（单位：元/吨）LPG注册仓单数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、Wind、彭博、广发期货发展研究中心LPG月差情况0200040006000800010000120001400001-0203-0205-0207-0209-0211-02LPG注册仓单2021202220232024-200-100010020030040050005-1106-1107-1108-1109-1110-1111-1112-11lpg02-03价差PG2402-2403PG2302-2303PG2202-2203PG2102-2103-800-600-400-200020040005-1006-1007-1008-1009-1010-1011-1012-10lpg03-04价差PG2403-2404PG2303-2304PG2203-2204PG2103-2104-100010020030040050010-1010-2411-0711-2112-0512-1901-0201-16lpg04-05价差PG2404-2405PG2304-2305PG2204-2205PG2104-2105 CP M1FEI M1CP M1-M2FEI M1-M2数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心外盘价格回落，但仍相对高位40140240340440540640740840940#N/ARequestingData...11/15/20239/26/20238/2/20236/13/20234/24/20233/2/2023FEI M1-40-200204060801001201/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1FEI(M1-M2)2021202220232024-60-40-200204060801001202022/8/92022/11/92023/2/92023/5/92023/8/92023/11/9CP(M1-M2)01002003004005006007008009002023/1/192023/3/192023/5/192023/7/192023/9/192023/11/19CP M1 PG-FEI FEI-CPMB-FEIMB-CP数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心内盘价格仍然偏弱，FEI-CP价差走强-2000-1500-1000-500050010001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PG-FEI2021202220232024-100-500501001502001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1FEI-CPFEI-CP M1 2021FEI-CP M1 2022FEI-CP M1 2023FEI-CP M1 2024-500-400-300-200-10001/42/43/44/45/46/47/48/49/410/411/412/4MB-FEI2021202220232024-350-300-250-200-150-100-5001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1MB-CP2021202220232024 FEI/BRENT MB/BRENTCP/BRENT数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心本周原油价格反弹，丙烷与原油比值回落024681012141/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1FEI/BRENT20212022202320240123456789101/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1MB/BRENT2021202220232024024681012141/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1CP/BRENT202220232024 二、LPG供需情况 美国原油产量（单位：千桶/天）美国汽油表观消费量（单位：千桶/天）美国商业库存（单位：百万桶）美国炼厂开工率（单位：%）数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心美国原油产量位于高位，开工率有所回升600070008000900010000110001200013000140001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美国原油产量20202021202220234000500060007000800090001000011000120001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美国汽油表观消费量20202021202220234000004200004400004600004800005000005200005400005600001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美国商业原油库存20202021202220234050607080901001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美国炼厂开工率2020202120222023 中东至远东运费（单位：美元/吨）美国运费（经巴拿马）（单位：美元/吨）美国运费（经好望角）（单位：美元/吨）数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、Wind、彭博、广发期货发展研究中心本周红海事件影响消退，运费无明显变化0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00200.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01中东至远东运费20212022202320240.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01美国至远东运费（经好望角）20212022202320240.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01美国至远东运费（经巴拿马）2021202220232024 日本液化气库存（单位：吨）日本液化气进口（单位：吨）日本液化气需求（单位：百万桶）日本液化气产量（单位：千吨）数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心日本液化气进口量和产量均有下滑800000100000012000001400000160000018000002000000220000024000001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1日本液化气库存202020212022202302000004000006000008000001000000120000014000001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1日本液化气进口量20202021202220230200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800002000001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1日本液化气需求20202021202220230501001502002503003501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1日本液化气产量2020202120222023 韩国丙烷库存（单位：千桶）韩国丁烷库存（单位：千桶）韩国液化气库存（单位：千桶）韩国液化气产量（单位：千桶）数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心韩国液化气库存位于高位05001000150020002500300035001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1韩国液化气产量20