2023年11月信用债市场运行报告：城投债净融资持续下降，二级市场信用利差整体收窄

城投债净融资持续下降，二级市场信用利差整体收窄 ——2023年11月信用债市场运行报告 摘要 发行方面，11月份信用债共发行9,921.07亿元，发行规模环比增加。其中，发行量最大的为短期融资券、公司债和中期票据，分别发行3,505.78亿元、3,414.27亿元和2,625.63亿元。当月取消或推迟发行的信用债有29只，涉及金额228.76亿元，较上月减少124.47亿元。 相关研究报告： 净融资方面，11月份信用债净融资为483.59亿元，净融资规模环比下降。10个重点行业中石油石化行业贡献最多净融资，共实现净融资210.40亿元；AAA、AA+和AA级主体净融资分别为676.62亿元、132.11亿元和-247.63亿元；国有企业和非国有企业净融资分别为398.82亿元和84.77亿元；城投债和非城投债净融资分别为-694.69亿元和1,178.27亿元。近期城投债净融资持续下滑，或与本轮特殊再融资债发行、证监会条线公司债券发行新规等因素有关。 1.《2023年10月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.11.14 到期压力方面，截至11月末，未来6个月将有45,087.16亿元信用债到期，到期压力迁移系数为0.75，较上月末减少0.02。分行业看，多数重点行业信用债到期压力环比下降。分企业性质看，国有企业信用债到期压力环比下降，非国有企业信用债到期压力环比上升。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债到期压力环比下降，非城投债到期压力环比持平。 到期收益率方面，11月份，中短期票据到期收益率整体先降后升；除3年期AAA级城投债到期收益率小幅上行外，其余期限与评级的城投债到期收益率整体下行。其中，低等级城投债到期收益率下行幅度较大，或是由于本轮特殊再融资债显示出政府偿债意愿，对贵州、云南等弱资质地区城投平台风险能起到一定缓释作用，进而估值得到有效改善。 信用利差方面，11月份各期限与评级的产业债和城投债信用利差整体收窄。1年期AA-级城投债信用利差收窄幅度最大，收窄了53.21BP。产业债和城投债信用利差均处于自2015年以来的历史中低水平。 展望未来，需继续关注低评级房地产企业和城投企业信用风险。地产债方面，近期六大行及多家股份制银行密集召开房企融资座谈会，积极对接房企信贷、债券等渠道融资需求。但在销售端暂未企稳背景下，弱资质房企现金流缓解仍较为困难，行业仍将继续存在出清风险。城投债方面，在地方政府发行特殊再融资债等“一揽子化债方案”背景下，城投债信用利差普遍收窄。但一些尾部城投企业再融资难度或将加大，在市场化转型中可能退出历史舞台，需注意防范相关风险。 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, a total of992.107billion yuan of corporate bonds were issued inNovember, and the issuance scaleincreased month-on-month. Among them, theshort-term financing bills,corporate bonds,andmedium-term noteswith the largest issuance volume were350.578billion yuan,341.427billion yuan,and262.563billionyuan respectively. There were29corporate bondscancelledor postponed this month, involving an amount of22.876billionyuan,adecrease of12.447billion yuan from the previous month. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bonds inNovemberwas48.359billion yuan,and the scaleof net financingdecreased month-on-month.Among the10key industries,the petroleum and petrochemicalindustrycontributed the most net financing, achieving a total net financing of21.040billion yuan.The net financing of AAA, AA+,and AA level entities was67.662billion yuan,13.211billion yuan,and-24.763billion yuan respectively. The net financingof state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises was39.882billion yuan and8.477billion yuan respectively. Thenet financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds and non-LGFV bonds was-69.469billion yuan and117.827billion yuan respectively.The recent decline in net financing of LGFV bonds may be related to factors such as thisround of special refinancing bond issuance andthe new regulations on the issuance of corporate bonds by the CSRC. In terms ofmaturity pressure, as of the end ofNovember,4,508.716billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature inthe next six months, and thematurity pressure migration coefficient was 0.75,down 0.02 from the end oftheprevious month.From the perspective of industries, the maturity pressure of10key industriesdecreasedmonth-on-month.From theperspective of enterprise ownership, thematurity pressure of state-owned companies’ bonds decreased month-on-month andthe maturity pressure of non-state-owned companies’ bonds increased month-on-month. From the perspective of LGFV bondsand non-LGFV bonds, the maturity pressure of LGFV bonds decreased month-on-month,and the maturity pressure of non-LGFV bonds increased month-on-month. In terms of yield to maturity, inNovember,the overall yield to maturity of shortand medium-term bills first fell and thenrose; except fortheyield to maturity of 3-year AAALGFVbondsrisingslightly, the yield to maturity ofLGFVbonds withother maturities and ratingsfelloverall.Among them, the yield to maturity of low-gradeLGFVbonds dropped significantly,or because this round of special refinancing bonds shows the government's willingness to repay debt, it can alleviate the risksofLGFVsin weakly qualified areas such as Guizhou and Yunnan, and thus the valuationwas effectively improved. In terms of credit spreads, the credit spreads of industrial bonds andLGFVbonds of various maturities and ratings inNovembernarrowedoverall.The credit spread of 1-year AA-ratedLGFVbonds narrowed the most, narrowing by 53.21BP.The credit spreads of industrial bonds andLGFVbondswereat mid-to-low historical levels since 2015. Lookingforward,it is necessaryto continue to pay attention to the credit risks of low-rated real estate companies andLGFVs.In terms of real estate bonds,manybanks have recently held intensive financing symposiums for real estate companies toactively meettheirfinancing needs through credit, bonds,and other channels. However, in the context that the sales side hasnot yet stabilized, it is still difficult to alleviate the cash flow of weakly qualified real estate companies, and the industry willcontinue to clear risks. In terms ofLGFVbonds, under the background ofthe"debt resolution packageprogram" such as theissuance of special refinancing bonds by local governments, the credit spreads ofLGFVbonds have generally narrowed.However, it may become more difficult for some tail-endLGFVst