2021年7月信用债市场运行报告：一级市场净融资仍未改善，二级市场信用利差收窄

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2021年8月13日 一级市场净融资仍未改善，二级市场信用利差收窄 ——2021年7月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：陈浩川 简奖平 李云霞 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，7月信用债发行规模较上月基本持平，共发行10666.56亿元。同时，本月取消或推迟发行的债券金额为154.89亿元。 净融资方面，7月份信用债共实现净融资2364.28亿元，较上月减少；净融资的增加主要集中于建筑装饰和综合行业，分别实现净融资1139.79亿元和713.96亿元；AAA级主体信用债净融资最多，实现净融资1047.13亿元，占比41.61%；城投企业净融资占所有信用债净融资比重为51.76%，较上月有所减少。 到期压力方面，未来6个月将有40046.25亿元信用债到期，未来到期压力显著低于过去12个月平均水平，并呈环比下降趋势。分行业来看，仅计算机行业未来到期压力显著高于过去12个月平均水平；建筑装饰、计算机和医药生物行业未来到期压力环比小幅上行，其余行业未来到期压力均环比下行。分企业性质来看，民营企业债券未来到期压力显著低于过去12个月平均水平，环比小幅下降。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债未来到期压力小幅低于过去12个月平均水平，环比变化不显著；非城投企业所发行债券到期压力显著低于过去12个月平均水平，且环比明显下降。 到期收益率方面，7月中短期票据到期收益率明显下行，下行幅度均在20BP以上。城投债到期收益率明显下行，下行幅度大多在30BP左右。 信用利差方面，7月各期限低等级（AA级）煤炭行业和短期限（1年期）低等级（AA级）钢铁行业产业债信用利差依然处于历史高位，但总体呈边际收窄趋势。弱资质短期限城投债信用利差处于历史高位，且呈边际走阔态势。 展望未来，地方政府债或将在未来几个月提速发行，叠加城投公司融资政策收紧等因素对信用债发行产生的影响，未来信用债一级市场发行仍面临不小压力；信用债收益率或将受具体行业或领域基本面、生产性物价未来走势以及利率债收益率走势等因素影响。 相关研究报告： 1.《2021年6月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.7.15 2.《2021年6月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.7.15 3.《2021年5月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.6.15 4.《2021年5月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.6.15 5.《2021年4月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.5.14 6.《2021年4月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.5.13 7.《2021年3月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.4.15 8.《2021年3月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.4.14 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets August 13th, 2021 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, the scale of China's corporate bond issuances was roughly equivalent to that of last month, which was about 1.067 trillion yuan. At the same time, the amount of canceled or postponed bond issuances was 15.489 billion yuan in July. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bond issuances was 236.428 billion yuan in July, which was less than that of last month. The increase of net financing concentrated in construction industry and comprehensive industry, which were 113.979 billion yuan and 71.396 billion yuan respectively. The increase in net financing of AAA-rated corporate bonds was the largest, which was 104.713 billion yuan and accounted for 41.61% of the increase in total net financing of corporate bonds in July. The increase in net financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds accounted for 51.76% of entire corporate bonds net financing, which was less than that of last month. In terms of maturing pressure, 4004.625 billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months. The overall maturity pressure of corporate bond market dropped apparently compared with the average pressure of the previous 12 months, and showed a downward trend month on month. From the perspective of industries, only the computer industry’s bond maturity pressure was significantly higher than the average pressure of the previous 12 months. Bond maturity pressures in the real estate, computer, and pharmaceutical and biological industries have all increased slightly compared to last month, while bond maturity pressures in other industries have declined month on month. From the perspective of enterprise ownership, the maturing pressure faced by private-owned enterprise bond issuers was significantly lower than the average pressure of the previous 12 months, and decreased slightly month on month. From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds, the maturing pressure of LGFV bonds was lower than the average pressure of the previous 12 months, but had no significant change compared to last month; the maturing pressure of non-LGFV bonds was apparently lower than the average level of the previous 12 months and declined sharply month on month. In terms of yield to maturity, in July, the yields of short- and medium-term notes decreased by over 20 BP, and most LGFV bonds decreased by 30 BP. In terms of credit spread, in July, the credit spreads of AA rated coal industry bonds and short-term AA-rated steel industry bonds were at a historical high, while most credit spreads of bonds showed marginal narrowing trend. The credit spreads of AA minus rated short-term LGFV bonds were at historical high with marginal broadening trend. Net financing in the primary market has not improved, credit spreads in the secondary market narrowed ——July 2021 China's corporate bond market operation report Author: Chen Haochuan, Jian Jiangping, Li Yunxia E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets August 13th, 2021 In the future, given that the issuance of local government bonds may be accelerated in the next few months, and the financing polices of LGFV bonds was tightened, the issuance of corporate bonds in the primary market still faces considerable pressure in the future. The trend of corporate bond yields will be affected by fundamentals of var