请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2021年6月15日 一级市场净融资由正转负，信用利差收窄显著 ——2021年5月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：陈浩川 简奖平 卢胜娇 杨帆 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，受“补年报”和公司债券发行上市审核政策收紧等因素综合影响，5月信用债发行规模大幅回落，共发行5426.74亿元。同时，本月取消或推迟发行的债券金额亦大幅减少，仅为24亿元。 净融资方面，5月份信用债净融资由正转负，共实现净融资-1827.63亿元，净融资的减少主要集中于房地产、综合和交通运输行业；高等级信用债净融资减少尤为显著（占比80.62%）；或因城投公司债券融资政策收紧，城投债净融资12个月以来首现负值，共实现净融资-508.79亿元。 到期压力方面，未来6个月将有39555.18亿元信用债到期，整体到期压力与之前相比进一步下行。房地产、交通运输、商业贸易、医药生物、公用事业和化工行业债券到期压力均呈现明显下降；民营企业债券到期压力减小相对更为显著；城投债到期压力下降幅度较小，非城投企业所发行债券到期压力下降相对更为明显。 到期收益率方面，5月信用债收益率明显下行，降幅均在10BP以上；各评级不同期限城投债收益率发生了不同程度的下行，5年期AA+级和AA级城投债收益率下行幅度近20BP。 信用利差方面，6个重点行业除煤炭行业外，信用利差在5月整体呈显著收窄态势，且多处于历史低位，未来不排除可能有调整；中长期限低等级煤炭行业产业债信用利差处于历史高位，且呈边际扩大趋势。弱资质中短期限城投债信用利差虽然处于历史高位，但呈边际收窄的态势，弱资质长期限城投债信用利差也居于历史高位，且边际走阔。 展望未来，政策收紧带来的影响短期内可能仍会延续，信用债一级市场修复仍有待时日；信用债二级市场到期收益率走势还将受利率债收益率走势影响。此外，也需继续关注生产性物价未来走势对各行业基本面和货币政策的影响。 相关研究报告： 1.《2021年5月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.6.15 2.《2021年4月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.5.14 3.《2021年4月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.5.13 4.《2021年3月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.4.15 5.《2021年3月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.4.14 6.《2021年2月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.3.13 7.《2021年2月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.3.12 8.《2021年1月份债券市场运行报告》，2021.02.11 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets June 15th, 2021 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, affected by factors such as the "replacement of annual financial report" and the tightening of the corporate bond issuance and listing policy, the scale of China's corporate bond issuances fell significantly in May, which was about 542.674 billion yuan. At the same time, the amount of canceled or postponed bond issuances was 2.4 billion yuan in May. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bond issuances turned to negative in May, which was -182.763 billion yuan. The decrease of net financing concentrated in real estate, comprehensive and transportation industries. The decrease in net financing of high-rated corporate bonds was particularly significant, which accounted for 80.62% of the decrease in total net financing of corporate bonds in May. Due to the tightening of bond financing policy for Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) in May, the net financing of LGFV bonds turned to negative for the first time in the last 12 months, which was -50.879 billion yuan. In terms of maturing pressure, 3955.518 billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months. The overall maturity pressure of corporate bond market dropped apparently compared with that of the previous 6 months. Bond maturity pressures in the real estate, transportation, commercial trade, pharmaceutical and biological, utilities, and chemical industries have all declined significantly. The maturing pressure faced by private-owned enterprise bond issuers decreased more obviously. The maturing pressure of LGFV bonds fell slightly, while the maturing pressure of non-LGFV bonds decreased more significantly. In terms of yield to maturity, the yields of China’s corporate bonds fell evidently by at least 10BP in May. The yields of LGFV bonds with different ratings and maturities declined to varying degrees. The yields of 5-year AA plus-rated and AA-rated LGFV bonds declined by nearly 20BP. In terms of credit spread, the credit spreads of most of the 6 crucial industries bonds (except for coal industry bonds) narrowed down significantly in May, most of which were at historical low, and have the possibility to fluctuate upward in the future. The credit spreads of medium and long-term low-rated coal industry bonds were at a historical high with marginal broadening trend. The credit spreads of low-rated medium- and short-term LGFV bonds were at a historical high, while it showed marginal narrowing trend. The credit spreads of low-rated long-term LGFV bonds were also at a historical high with marginal broadening trend. Net financing in the primary market turned to negative, and credit spreads narrowed significantly ——May 2021 China's corporate bond market operation report Author: Chen Haochuan, Jian Jiangping, Lu Shengjiao, Yang Fan E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets June 15th, 2021 In the future, the impact of policy tightening may continue in the short term, and it will take time for the primary market of corporate bonds to recover. The trend of corporate bond yields will also be affected by the trend of government bond yields. At the same time, the fundamentals of various industries and monetary policy may be affected by the future trends in producer prices, which are also worthy of attention. 1 / 18 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2021年6月15日 目录 一、信用