2021年11月信用债市场运行报告：房地产净融资15个月来首次转正，二级市场信用利差收窄

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2021年12月15日 房地产净融资15个月来首次转正，二级市场信用利差收窄 ——2021年11月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：陈浩川 简奖平 顾沈蓉 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，11月信用债发行规模较环比大幅增加，共发行11783.04亿元。同时，本月取消或推迟发行的债券金额为187亿元，环比有所减少。 净融资方面，11月份信用债共实现净融资3053.5亿元，环比大幅增加；建筑装饰行业实现净融资最多，共实现净融资1360.66亿元；房地产行业净融资15个月以来首次转正；AAA级主体信用债净融资占比小幅增加，AA级主体信用债净融资占比小幅降低；民营企业净融资仍为负，且降幅扩大；城投企业净融资环比大幅增加，非城投企业净融资小幅上升，本月信用债净融资的增加仍主要由城投债贡献。 到期压力方面，截至11月末，未来6个月将有39398.01亿元信用债到期，未来到期压力显著低于过去12个月平均水平，但环比变化不大。非银金融行业未来到期压力小幅高于过去12个月平均水平；非银金融和公用事业行业未来到期压力环比小幅上行。分企业性质来看，民营企业债券未来到期压力显著低于过去12个月平均水平，但环比变化不大。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债未来到期压力低于过去12个月平均水平，并环比小幅下降。 到期收益率方面，或受到利率债到期收益率走势影响，11月中短期票据到期收益率和城投债到期收益率均明显下行。 信用利差方面，11月各行业不同评级产业债信用利差总体边际收窄，AA+级房地产和化工行业产业债信用利差收窄较为显著；除化工行业外，各行业产业债信用利差均处于历史中等或较低水平。值得关注的是，从国内信用利差数据来看，截至11月底，近期多起地产行业信用风险事件并没有给房地产行业债券带来显著负面冲击。城投债信用利差整体收窄；弱资质城投债信用利差收窄相对更为显著，但仍处于历史较高水平。 展望未来，地方政府专项债供给压力已经基本完全释放，或会为信用债一级市场发行营造良好环境。此外，可密切关注利率债收益率后续走势、Omicron变异株传播后续情况、物价未来走势、地产行业信用风险事件化解进程以及各行业基本面等因素可能对信用债二级市场收益率产生的影响。 相关研究报告： 1.《2021年10月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.11.15 2.《2021年10月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.11.15 3.《2021年9月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.10.15 4.《2021年9月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.10.15 5.《2021年8月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.9.15 6.《2021年8月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.9.15 7.《2021年7月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.8.13 8.《2021年7月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.8.13 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets December 15th, 2021 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, the scale of China's corporate bond issuances increased significantly compared to the previous month in November, which was about 1.1783 trillion yuan. At the same time, the amount of canceled or postponed bond issuance was 18.7 billion yuan in November, which was less than that of the previous month. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bond issuances increased significantly to 305.35 billion yuan in November. The increase in net financing of the construction industry was the largest, which was 136.066 billion yuan. The net financing of the real estate industry turned positive for the first time in 15 months. The proportion of net financing of AAA-rated issuers increased slightly, while the proportion of net financing of the AA-rated issuers decreased slightly. The increase in net financing of private-owned enterprises was still negative, and the decrease of which widened. The net financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds increased significantly, while the net financing of non-LGFV bonds increased slightly. The net financing of corporate bonds was still mainly contributed by LGFV bonds. In terms of maturing pressure, 3.9398 trillion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months at the end of November. The overall maturity pressure of the corporate bond market was lower than the average maturity pressure of the previous 12 months and is close to that of the end of the previous month. From the perspective of industries, the non-bank financial industry’s bond maturity pressure was slightly higher than the average pressure of the previous 12 months; the non-bank financial and utilities industry’s bond maturity pressure was higher than that of the end of October. From the perspective of enterprise ownership, the maturing pressure faced by private-owned enterprise bond issuers was significantly lower than the average pressure of the previous 12 months and remained stable month on month. From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds, the maturing pressure of LGFV bonds was lower than the average pressure of the previous 12 months and decreased slightly compared to last month. In terms of yield to maturity, affected by the movement of the yields of China’s government bonds, the yields of short and medium-term notes and LGFV bonds fell obviously in November. In terms of credit spreads, the overall credit spreads of all rated industry bonds were marginally narrowed in November, while the credit spreads of AA plus-rated real estate and coal industry bonds were narrowed obviously. Except for the chemical industry, the credit spreads of all other industries were at a historically medium or low level. From the perspective of the domestic credit spread of the real estate industry, multiple recent credit risk incidents in the real estate industry have not brought a large negative impact on the real estate industry bonds till the end of November. The credit spreads of LGFV bonds The net financing of real estate industry turned positive for the first time in 15 months, the credit spreads in secondary market narrowed ——November 2021 China's corporate bond market operation report Author: Chen Haochuan, Jian Jiangping, Gu Shenrong E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正