请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2022年4月18日 非城投企业净融资大幅减少，城投债信用利差大幅收窄 ——2022年3月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：申学峰 简奖平 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，3月份信用债共发行7296.17亿元，发行规模创去年5月以来新高。同时，当月取消或推迟发行的债券金额为322.30亿元，环比上升62.80亿元。其中，发行量最大的为短期融资券和公司债。 净融资方面，3月份信用债共实现净融资2574.59亿元，净融资规模环比有所下降。重点行业中建筑装饰行业实现净融资最多，共实现净融资1185.55亿元；AAA级主体信用债净融资额环比下降，AA级主体净融资额环比上升；国有企业和非国有企业净融资均环比减少；非城投企业净融资额下降1883.85亿元至594.37亿元，非城投债净融资大幅下滑。 到期压力方面，截至3月末，未来6个月将有46045.59亿元信用债到期，到期压力迁移系数为0.91，较上月末上升0.02。分行业来看，大部分重点行业未来到期压力环比有所上升。分企业性质来看，国有企业债券未来到期压力环比上升，非国有企业债券未来到期压力环比变动不大。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债未来6个月到期压力与过去12个月相近，非城投债未来6个月到期压力略低于过去12个月平均水平。 到期收益率方面，3月份中短期票据和城投债二级市场到期收益率均上行。其中，3年期各评级中短期票据到期收益率上行10.70至19.70个BP，3年期各评级城投债收益率上行12.59至21.59个BP。 信用利差方面，3月份不同行业、不同评级产业债信用利差走势分化，医药生物AA+级债券信用利差大幅下降50.47BP，化工AA+级债券的信用利差大幅上升28.25BP。除化工行业AA+债项外，各行业不同评级产业债信用利差均处于历史中等或较低水平。城投债平均信用利差大幅收窄，其中AA级城投债信用利差收窄73.98BP。此外，3月份有10家企业主体评级被下调，其中4家为建筑装饰企业。 展望未来，稳经济增长、稳房地产以及央行降准等因素预计会对债券融资有一定促进作用，国有企业、城投企业债券发行将稳中有增。当前经济增速放缓，疫情继续影响实体经济，部分行业经营环境不确定性增加，需要关注高负债主体的信用风险。未来主体信用级别下调数量或将增加，部分中低等级主体可能会信用恶化甚至违约。 相关研究报告： 1.《2022年2月利率债市场运行报告》，2022.03.15 2.《2022年2月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.03.16 3.《2022年1月利率债市场运行报告》，2022.02.15 4.《2022年1月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.02.16 5.《2021年12月利率债市场运行报告》，2022.01.19 6.《2021年12月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.01.17 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets April 18th, 2022 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, a total of 729.62 billion yuan of corporate bonds were issued in March, and the issuance scale hit a new high since May last year. At the same time, the amount of canceled or postponed bond issuance was 32.23 billion yuan in March, which increased by 6.28 billion yuan month-on-month. Among them, short-term financing bills and corporate bonds were the most issued. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bond was 257.46 billion yuan in March, which decreased month-on-month. Among the key industries, the net financing of the building decoration industry was the largest, which was 118.56 billion yuan. The net financing of AAA issuers decreased month-on-month, and the net financing of AA issuers increased month-on-month. Both state-owned and non-state-owned companies' net financing decreased from the previous month. The net financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds decreased by 188.39 billion yuan to 59.44 billion yuan, which was a sharp decline. In terms of maturity pressure, 4.60 trillion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months at the end of March, and the maturity pressure migration coefficient was 0.91, an increase of 0.02 from the end of the previous month. From the perspective of industries, the maturity pressure of most key industries increased month-on-month. From the perspective of enterprise ownership, the maturity pressure of state-owned enterprise bonds increased month-on-month, while the maturity pressure of non-state-owned enterprise bonds did not change much month-on-month. From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds, the maturity pressure of LGFV bonds in the next 6 months was similar to that in the average level of past 12 months, and the maturity pressure of non-LGFV bonds in the next 6 months was slightly lower than the average level of the past 12 months. In terms of yield to maturity, the yields to maturity of short and medium-term notes and LGFV bonds both increased in March, among which the yield to maturity of the 3-year short-term and medium-term notes of various credit ratings increased by 10.70BP to 19.70BP, and the yield to maturity of the 3-year LGFV bonds of various credit ratings increased by 12.59BP to 21.59BP. In terms of credit spreads, the trend of credit spreads of bonds in different industries and ratings was different March. The credit spreads of AA+ pharmaceuticals and biotechnology industry bonds decreased by 50.47BP, and the credit spreads of AA+ chemical industry bonds rose by 28.25BP. Except for AA+ chemical industry bonds, the credit spreads of different ratings and industries were at a historically medium or low level. The average credit spreads of LGFV bonds narrowed The net financing of LGFV decreased significanty, and the credit spreads of LGFV bonds narrowed significantly ——March 2022 China's corporate bond market operation report Author: Shen Xuefeng, Jian Jiangping E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets April 18th,