南华宏观研究团队周度报告：内生动能持续修复

20231110 PMI 10CPICPI10PMIPPI10PPIPPIPPI 20231110 i 1. .................................................................................................... 1 2. .................................................................................. 4 3. ............................................................................................. 9 4. ........................................................................................... 10 20231110 ii 1.1........................................................................................... 1 1.2PMI ....................................................................... 2 1.3CPI............................................................................................... 3 1.4PPI ............................................................................................... 3 2.1........................................................................................... 4 2.2........................................................................................... 6 3.1 ..................................................................................................... 9 3.2 .............................................................................................. 9 3.3 .............................................................................................. 9 4.1 ................................................................................. 10 20231110 1 1. 1 104931.32.5%6.4%3%565.330.8% 1.1 Wind PMI-60-1040901402018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10出口金额:当月同比进口金额:当月同比 20231110 2 1.2PMI Wind 2CPI 40.0045.0050.0055.0060.0065.0070.002005-012005-112006-092007-072008-052009-032010-012010-112011-092012-072013-052014-032015-012015-112016-092017-072018-052019-032020-012020-112021-092022-072023-05PMIPMI:PMI: 20231110 3 1.3CPI 1.4PPI Wind Wind 10CPICPI10PMIPPI10PPIPPIPPI -6.00-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.008.0010.00-2.00-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.002020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08CPI非食品消费品服务项目食品 20231110 4 2. 2.1 2.1 1 2 3200 3 4 7 1 1 2 3 20231110 5 4 5 6 7 8 3 9 (2023) 10 1 104931.32.5%6.4%3%565.330.8% 2 1010.2%1076.737.5% 3 100.2%0.1% 20231110 6 2.2 2.2 1 8-10 2 Q3 3 4 FOMC3%2%Q310 5 630 20231110 7 6 562% 7 1 10156188910.13.9%202213.8%120%67 2 92.2%202210.8%1.80% 3 1834 4 119 1 2 20231110 8 1 10PMI47.83210PMI46.535 1 11300 2 11126 3 -1-2MQ-9 20231110 9 3. 3.1 iFinD 3.2 iFinD 3.3 iFinD 2023.11.10 20231110 10 4. 4.1 ifindwind 20231110 / 136 310008 400 8888 910 www.nanhua.net 603093