南华宏观研究团队周度报告：四季度可能的政策探讨

2023924 GDPGDP3.9%3.9%GDP3.9%5%GDP4.39%5% 2023924 i 1. ..................................................................................... 1 2. .................................................................................. 4 3. ............................................................................................. 7 4. ............................................................................................. 8 2023924 ii 1.1GDP .................................................... 1 1.220222023GDP% ........... 1 1.3GDP ......................................... 2 1.4GDP .................................. 3 2.1........................................................................................... 4 2.2........................................................................................... 5 3.1 ..................................................................................................... 7 3.2 .............................................................................................. 7 3.3 .............................................................................................. 7 4.1 ................................................................................... 8 2023924 1 1. GDPGDP3.9%3.9%GDP3.9%5%GDP4.39%5% 1 GDP 20235%2022GDP113.215%2023GDP118.872023GDP55.58GDP63.29 GDP2016-20202021-2022GDP2023GDP1.1 1.25%GDPGDP3.9%GDP5.2%GDP5% 1.1GDP 2016-2020 2021-2022 47.4% 47.7% 47.5% 52.6% 52.3% 52.5% 100% 100% 100% 1.220222023GDP% 2022 2023 257286.1 268991.8 4.5% 269674.4 286755.5 6.3% 289504.9 300758.1* 3.9%* 2023924 2 1.220222023GDP% 2022 2023 315588.5 332151.1* 5.2%* 1132053.8 1188656.5* 5.0%* “*” 2 GDP GDP4%-4.9%GDP5%5%-5.6%GDP4.39% GDP4.39%GDP30.225%GDP33.074.8% 1.3GDP 4.90% - - 5.40% - 5.50% 4.80% 5.60% 4.70% - 3.4%-4% - 4%-4.4% - 4.30% - 4% 4.80% - 5.50% - 5.30% 4.50% - 5.3% 5.2% 3 2023924 3 2018-2022GDP55.3%5.2% 1GDPGDP3.9%5.2%5%GDPGDP3.9%3.9%GDP3.9%5% 2GDP4.39%GDP4.8%GDP5%55% 1.4GDP 2018 6.7% 6.5% 2019 5.9% 5.8% 2020 4.8% 6.4% 2021 5.2% 4.3% 2022 3.9% 2.9% 5.3% 5.2% GDP 2023924 4 2. 2.1 2.1 1 2 3 4 5 925 6 1 2023924 5 2 2.2 97 2.2 1 91818337821813671.112569 2 3 5.25%-5.5%501130%94.76% 2023924 6 4 5 1 91620.1128 2 8404410407 3 9MarkitPMI48.948847.9847PMI50.250.6850.5851PMI50.150.4850.2850.4 1 9 2 1 9PMI43.444843.59PMI48.447.7847.99PMI47.146.5846.7 2023924 7 3. 3.1 iFinD 3.2 iFinD 3.3 iFinD 2023.09.22 2023924 8 4. 4.1 / 926 22:00 () 714K 700K 20:00 () 1.443M 1.543M 927 04:30 API() -5.250M 928 20:30 201K 217K 22:00 (%) 0.9 0.3 20:30 GDP(%) 2.0 2.2 929 20:30 PCE(%) 4.2 3.9 20:30 PCE(%) 0.2 0.2 22:00 67.7 67.7 17:00 CPI(%) 5.2 4.6 17:00 CPI(%) 0.5 17:00 CPI(%) 5.3 4.9 09:45 PMI 51.8 09:45 PMI 51.0 09:45 PMI 51.7 930 09:30 PMI 51.0 09:30 PMI 49.7 09:30 PMI 51.3 101 09:45 PMI 51.8 09:45 PMI 51.0 ifind 2023924 / 136 310008 400 8888 910 www.nanhua.net 603093