南华期货铁矿石策略周报：钢厂增产，基本面坚韧

1027 2023 Z0012648 F03095899 107.8 111.4 113.9 -3.7 .5 -10 69.0 -104.0 -114.5 0 3. -107.5 57.5 60.5 5 7. 38.5 46.5 54.0 0 6. -5.5 193.5 199.5 0 3. 102.0 136.0 139.0 .5 -4 63.5 89.5 85.0 .8 -4 120.9 101.3 96.5 .6 -4 109.4 105.6 100.9 · · .0 7 6.0 16.0 23.0 .8 20 146.9 234.1 254.8 .0 5 138.0 95.0 100.0 .3 0 7.9 10.2 10.5 .6 1 18.8 24.3 25.8 5.0 -1 993.0 1020.0 1005.0 4.0 -2 778.0 846.0 822.0 9.0 -1 916.0 941.0 922.0 .8 -2 129.5 127.6 124.8 .5 -3 122.5 119.7 116.3 .9 -1 105.9 106.7 104.8 837.0 846.5 846.5 -9 .5 783.0 800.0 808.0 -17 .0 722.5 742.5 915.5 -20 .0 5.0 -5 -146.0 31.0 -24.0 .0 -8 35.0 -44.0 -52.0 5.0 -3 -32.0 -156.0 -191.0 .5 -6 42.9 30.7 24.2 0.0 -7 -286.3 -247.5 -317.5 7.4 -2 -219.5 -397.9 -425.2 9.2 -1 2716.9 2844.1 2824.8 wind · · .4 22 1152.3 967.6 990.0 8.6 -8 391.1 450.1 361.5 3.4 -7 516.0 579.4 506.0 .2 35 730.1 574.0 609.2 .5 62 708.2 524.3 586.8 3.8 -4 554.7 534.1 490.3 8.6 -8 391.1 450.1 361.5 5.1 10 993.6 714.7 819.8 9 1. 2943.0 2561.3 2563.2 1.9 -4 3497.7 3095.4 3053.5 1 4. 114.0 97.5 101.6 7 6. 154.3 149.5 156.2 6 9. 87.1 75.7 85.2 .5 15 306.9 300.2 315.7 .7 69 284.6 198.9 268.7 .4 -0 92.7 92.3 91.9 .2 -1 84.1 83.4 82.2 .1 -1 247.8 247.0 246.0 9 3. 323.8 339.1 343.0 64.164.066.0 39.139.040.4 50.150.051.5 54.666.272.3 2286.32311.22297.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -11.5 -24.9 wind 01 / 05 / 09 / 876.5 825.5 757.5 · 01 / 05 / 09 / PB / / / 819 62% / 65% / 58% / PB- / - / PB - / / · · 目前X值： 矿物自身品质（%） 品质升贴水 品牌升贴水 总升贴水 现货价格 折盘面价格 基差(交割亏损） 1.5 Fe SiO2 Al2O3 P S 水分 Fe SiO2 Al2O3 P S 总计 现货价格 干基价格 1月 5月 9月 PB粉 61.5 3.8 2.3 0.1 0.02 9 7.5 3.5 4 0 0 15 15 30 933 1025 995 325 178 284 纽曼粉 62.4 4.2 2.4 0.09 0.02 7.5 21 1.5 2 0 0 24.5 0 24.5 968 1046 1022 352 205 311 麦克粉 61 4.7 2.3 0.09 0.03 7.5 0 -2 4 0 0 2 0 2 921 996 994 324 177 283 金布巴粉 60.5 4.4 3 0.12 0.02 7.2 -7.5 0.5 -15 -20 0 -42 0 -42 899 969 1011 341 194 300 罗伊山粉 61 4.9 2.3 0.06 0.04 8.5 0 -4 4 0 -1 -1 0 -1 906 990 991 321 174 280 BRBF 62.5 5 1.7 0.07 0 8.5 22.5 -5 16 0 0 33.5 15 48.5 948 1036 988 318 171 277 超特粉 56.5 6.2 3.1 0.06 0.03 9 -120 -17 -18 0 0 -155 0 -155 819 900 1055 385 238 344 FMG混合粉 58.5 5.6 2.5 0.07 0.04 7.5 -60 -11 0 0 -1 -72 0 -72 870 941 1013 343 196 302 卡拉加斯粉 65 1.7 1.5 0.08 0 8.5 75 14 20 0 0 109 15 124 1016 1110 986 316 169 275 河钢精粉 66.5 6 0.5 0.01 0.01 0 112.5 -15 30 0 0 127.5 0 127.5 874 874 747 77 -71 36 鞍钢精粉 64.9 4.3 0.6 0.02 0.05 0 72.5 1 30 0 -2 101.5 0 101.5 913.9 914 812 142 -5 101 杨迪粉 57 6 1.65 0.05 0.01 9.5 -105 -15 17 0 0 -103 0 -103 901 996 1099 429 282 388 卡拉拉精粉 65.5 7 1 0.1 0.1 9.5 87.5 -27.5 30 0 -7 83 0 83 1098 1213 1130 460 313 419 IOC6 61.5 7.2 1.7 0.07 0 9.5 7.5 -30.5 16 0 0 -7 0 -7 897 991 998 328 181 287 KUMBA 63.2 6 1.8 0.06 0.01 2.35 33 -15 14 0 0 32 0 32 1018 1042 1010 340 193 299 乌克兰精粉 65.9 8 0.2 0.1 0 10.06 97.5 -42.5 30 0 0 85 0 85 1063 1182 1097 427 280 386 本钢精粉 67.5 6 0.2 0.02 0.02 0 137.5 -15 30 0 0 152.5 0 152.5 1020 1020 868 198 51 157 马钢精粉 65.48 4.79 1.52 0.0019 0.0545 0 230.36 -2.9 19.6 0 -2.45 244.61 0 244.61 1120 1120 875 205 58 164 太钢精粉 65.5 4 1 0.035 0.02 0 231.5 2.5 30 0 0 264 0 264 1015 1015 751 81 -66 40 五矿标准粉 61.5 6 2.2 0.07 0.02 8.9 23.5 -15 6 0 0 14.5 0 14.5 945 1037 1023 353 206 312 SP10粉 58.5 4.45 2.35 0.07 0.025 9 -140 0.25 3 0 0 -136.75 0 -136.75 855 940 1076 406 259 365 wind 09 PB-09 / 1809 1909 2009 2109 2209 2309 01 PB-01 / 05 PB-05 / 1801190120012101220123012401 01-05 / 1801-18051901-19052001-20052101-2105 05-09 / 2201-22052301-23052401-2405 09-01 / 1709-18011809-19011909-20012009-2101 2109-22012209-23012309-24012409-2501 / / 827.5 920.5 8761.5 994325..00 91047.50 856.5 863.5 853.5 843.5 840.5 825.5 808.5 810.5 791.0 793.0 775.5776723..00 757.5 747.0 742.5 112.7574110.89 110.60110089..7068 107.03105.501 107.36105.87 2023-10-262023-10-19 2017 2021 2018 2022 2019 2023 2020 2024 62.5%/ 2017201820192020 20212022202320 % 65% / 20172018201920202021202220232024 % 38 202220232024 2017201820192020202120222023 20222023 · 332 · 186 % 126 201920202021202220232024201920202021202220232024201920202021202220232024 186 30 · 201920202021202220232024202220232024 · · · · 20202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023 · · 201920202021202220232020202120222023 · · BHP · FMG · 201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023 Vale · · 201920202021202220232020202120222023 → / → / VLFSO / · · 20202021202220232024 20172018201920202021202220232024 - *10 2017201920202021202220232024 · 2017201820192020 201720182019202020212022202320242021202220232024 % % 2017201820192020 2021202220232024 2017201820192020 2021202220232024 · · · · · · 2017201820192020202120222023202420172018201920202021202220232024 % % % % % · % · 2017201820192020202120222023202420172018201920202021202220232024 · 20172018201920202021202220232024201720182019202020212022202320242017201820192020202120222023202