聚烯烃日报：成本支撑走弱，聚烯烃偏弱运行

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 宏观强预期，需求弱现实，建议暂观望。油价连续下跌，油制聚烯烃成本端支撑减弱，聚烯烃偏弱运行，油制LL生产利润修复，回升至盈亏平衡线之上，油制PP生产利润亦修复。多套装置停车检修，聚烯烃开工率再次走低。丙烷维持强势，PDH制PP大幅亏损。PE下游农膜需求接近最高点，双十一亦带动部分下游恢复，但下游维持刚需采购。上中游库存库存压力不大。内外盘价差走弱，PE进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 库存方面，石化库存64万吨，与前一日持平。 基差方面，LL华东基差在-10元/吨，PP华东基差在-90元/吨，基差变化不大。 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际原油连续下跌，油制LL生产利润修复，回升至盈亏平衡线之上，油制PP生产利润修复，成本端支撑减弱。丙烷维持强势，PDH制PP生产利润亏损较大。 东明石化40HD装置、镇海炼化30PE装置停车，四川石化30HD装置、延安能源30PP装置开车，聚烯烃装置开工负荷再度下调。 进出口方面，内外盘价差走弱，PE进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：暂观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 宏观政策力度，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润