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Xtep International Holdings Limited (1368.HK) reported strong 3Q23 retail sales growth of over 10% YoY, in line with CMBI estimates. The company's offline sales outperformed online sales, with growth of over 30% in the Kids category and over 25% in the Running category. Retail discounts were in the range of 25-30%, consistent with management's comments in August 2023. The inventory-to-sales ratio was stable at 4.5-5 months. 4Q23E guidance is impressive, and FY24E outlook is positive. Retail sales trends are strong, and 4Q23E guidance is achievable. Management expects growth of over 30% YoY, in line with CMBI estimates. Retail discounts are expected to remain high in 4Q23, but the inventory-to-sales ratio is expected to normalize to around 4 months.假设第四季度销售通过率正常，FY24E指导好于预期。管理层预计，由于强劲的需求，零售销售增长和上市水平的销售增长在FY24E都将达到20%以上。这比我们预期的15%+要好。我们认为，增长的驱动力应该是每家店销售额增长10%以上(主要是销量和小ASP增长，7-8%SSSG，以及9家门店的30万元销售额th- genstore vs人民币19万元的平均商店)，3%以上的商店数量增长(大约1000个开业和大约800个关闭)，以及20%以上的儿童和电子商务销售增长。新品牌指导保持不变，但Saucony继续表现良好。Saucony的每家商店的销售额现在可以达到约30万元人民币，规模较小，仅为110平方米(而Xtep的平均面积为140平方米)。在FY23E，商店数量将达到约100家，大约20家将是分销商的商店。在这种情况下，FY23E可能会实现盈亏平衡。维持买入和TP 11.41港元，基于23倍的FY23E市盈率不变。Xtep目前的估值并不高，为FY23E市盈率14倍，PEG为0.6，尤其是当数据(销售增长和利润率)可能触底时。
