3Q 预览 ： rev ／ adj 息税折旧及摊销前利润 + 20% ／ 36%

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Samsonite (1910 HK) is expected to report strong 3Q results, with revenue and adj EBITDA of US$950 and US$180mn, respectively, up 20% and 36% YoY. This growth is driven by robust global travel demand during the summer holiday, leading to strong sell-through of luggage and bags. Revenue is expected to grow by 7%, 35%, and 20% YoY in North America, Europe, and APAC, respectively. TUMI is expected to continue to outperform Samsonite and American Tourister, with a persistent mix upgrade likely to sustain a 59% GPM for the quarter. Advertising expense ratio is expected to remain stable, and the cost curve is likely to exhibit fixed cost savings. Samsonite is on track to financially grow beyond the pre-pandemic year in 2019, and valuation is expected to catch up and revert from currently 13.0x 1-year forward P/E to ~20.0 pre-pandemic. The company is rated Buy. For 2024E, low-teen revenue growth is expected as the pent-up travel demand from the pandemic lockdown has yet to fully digest, particularly in Asia.