2023四季度集运展望：欲渡黄河冰塞川

818Contango 8 11 121112 -20111290 Z0003508fxiaoyan@nawaa.com0571-87839259 F03100647yjc@nawaa.com 1.2023.....................................................................1 1.1.............................................................................................11.2....................................................................................................11.3................................................................................................1 2.2023............................................................................2 2.1..............................................................................22.2.................................................32.3..............................................................................52.3.1....................................................................................................52.3.2.............................................................................................82.4...........................................102.4.1..................................................................................................102.4.2............................................................................142.4.3..................................................................................................17 3....................................................................................19 3.1...........................................................................................193.2...........................................................................................20 4........................................................................................24 5...............................................................................................26 2.12023SCFIS925....................................................22.22023SCFIS925....................................................22.32023922...................................32.4922................................................32.5...............................................42.6.....................................................................52.7.....................................................................52.3.18............................................62.3.2....................................62.3.3.......................................................62.3.48..............................72.3.58..................82.3.6HICP......................................................................82.3.7................................................................................92.3.8:PMISCFIS:..................................................92.4.120212023926.........102.4.2201520238.....................................112.4.3..................................................................................112.4.4.............................................122.4.5.......................................................................132.4.6...................................................................132.4.7..........................................................................14 2.4.8................................................................152.4.9...................................................................152.4.1926.........................162.4.10.....................................................................172.4.11.....................................................................172.4.12::-.....................183.1.1(NCFI).............................................193.1.2.......................................................................203.2.1PPI............................................................213.2.2OECD..................................................................223.2.327.................................................................223.2.4.................................................234.1........................................................244.2...................................................................255.1ETS.......................................26 1.2023 1.1 11118 120.50% 1.2 1.3 2.2023 2.1 2023SCFIS71110.0225.33%925SCFIS9.7%704.629SCFIS79.01% 7461.98724.71NCFI56.87%922NCFI375.744002016618.74%8811SCFINCFI712.00%16.67%1043.54754.84922SCFI NCFI812.63%20.93%911.71596.83 iFinD iFinD 2.2 818EC240417.47%916.312099 34EC2406EC2408 EC2410EC2412936.01209953426926 1609171230Contango969269649.75%7%9266849.99%773.70.16810.00%10.01%829.8880.69.7%11557 2.3 2.3.1 3814.50%19.58%10.72% iFinD HS82246.67%10%7.85%17.22%57.10%;;22.58% 8.01%20.60% 8845.97%8.75%19.69%24.91%29.10%836.94%57.10%8116.78% 20221-820%33.6% 2.3.2 HICPHICP5%5.20% PMI114.5093.30PMI58.2%43.4%PMISCFIS 2.4 2.4.1 99266.75%65.96%34.68%487677TEU8268.41%9105.63% 7817226TEU26.45 9202.2%0 7464283TEU3.31%9454412TEU3.22%7892.90%96.37%32 408~93.86%739~4338%Sea Intelligence Maritime Analysis2017~2019 17,000TEU195406TEU15%48TEU-8590TEU113%-2/3- 12~17,0