期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 黄金：FOMC会议继释放鹰派信号 ............................................................................................................................................. 3 白银：2024年降息预期调降 ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 铜：海外持续累库，压制价格 ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 铝：日盘坚挺，隔夜略承压 ........................................................................................................................................................... 7 氧化铝：窄幅横盘 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 7 锌：高位盘整 ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 铅：短期回调，中期仍需关注成本 ........................................................................................................................................... 11 镍：弱势预期兑现，库存延续累增 ........................................................................................................................................... 13 不锈钢：供需弹性施压，关注下方成本 .................................................................................................................................. 13 锡：震荡回落 .................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 工业硅：震荡偏弱，关注库存演变 ........................................................................................................................................... 17 碳酸锂：止跌反弹 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 19 铁矿石：高位震荡 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 21 螺纹钢：供需双弱，震荡思路 .................................................................................................................................................... 23 热轧卷板：库存压力仍存，偏弱震荡 ...................................................................................................................................... 23 硅铁：产业驱动不足，高位承压 ............................................................................................................................................... 25 锰硅：顶部压力渐显，弱势震荡 ............................................................................................................................................... 25 焦炭：高位震荡 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 27 焦煤：高位震荡 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 27 动力煤：供应扰动延续，高位震荡 ........................................................................................................................................... 29 集运指数（欧线）：需求疲软，弱势运行 ............................................................................................................................... 31 玻璃：市场逐步走弱 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 33 PTA：多LU空PTA .......................................................................................................................................................................... 34 MEG：压力边际改善，正套，多MEG空PTA ...................................................................................................................... 34 对二甲苯：短期估值高，多LU空PX ...................................................................................................................................... 37 橡胶：震荡偏弱 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 38 合成橡胶：现货高价成交乏力，偏弱运行 ............................................................................................................................. 40 沥青：去库延续，估值乏力 ......................................................................................................................................................... 42 LLDPE：回调整理 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 44 PP: 短线不追空 中期调整未结束 ..........