2023美国资本市场报告英文版

C&W’s baseline glide path suggests a recession with 2.5 million job losses in the labor market and property values adjusting by 25-50%. The credit markets are starting to thaw and flow, but the capital markets are still experiencing adjustments. The Fed is expected to pivot and start a rate cutting cycle, with core inflation improving to 3%. Consumer and business confidence are gradually improving, but CRE demand formation is slowing across OFC, IND, RET, MF sectors. The supply pipeline is subsiding, and wage growth is starting to cool. The 10Y trends towards 4.0% (high 3s% thereafter). Values are expected to start rebounding. The key takeaways are that inflation remains stubborn and the path to the Fed’s target will take more time to achieve, continuing to strain credit conditions.

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