粤港澳大湾区气候协同的空气质量改善战略研究报告

改善战略研究报告 Air Quality ImprovementStrategies for Climate Synergy inthe Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area 北京大学 !"# "#$%&'()*+,-.%/01234562789! ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This report is a product ofPekingUniversityand is funded by Energy Foundation China. !" I目录.............................................................................................................................................I第一章粤港澳大湾区污染物浓度水平与减排空间分析.......................................................11.1研究背景......................................................................................................................11.2方法与数据..................................................................................................................21.2.1数据来源............................................................................................................21.2.2背景浓度计算方法............................................................................................21.3污染物历史减排效果分析..........................................................................................31.3.1 CO减排效果分析..............................................................................................31.3.2 NO2减排效果分析.............................................................................................41.3.3 PM2.5浓度削减效果分析...................................................................................51.3.4 O3浓度削减效果分析.......................................................................................51.4粤港澳大湾区未来一次污染物减排空间预测..........................................................61.5粤港澳大湾区臭氧背景浓度分析..............................................................................7第二章粤港澳大湾区CO2及污染物排放分析.....................................................................122.1大湾区一次污染物排放总量变化趋势....................................................................122.2大湾区大气污染物和温室气体减排源贡献结构分析............................................172.3大湾区大气污染物和温室气体减排协同效应分析................................................212.3.1 SO2和CO2减排协同效应分析.......................................................................212.3.2NOx和CO2减排协同效应分析......................................................................222.3.3 PM10和CO2减排协同效应分析.....................................................................232.3.4 PM2.5和CO2减排协同效应分析....................................................................242.3.5 VOCs和CO2减排协同效应分析...................................................................252.3.6 CO和CO2减排协同效应分析.......................................................................25第三章粤港澳大湾区未来温度目标减排情景构建.............................................................273.1引言............................................................................................................................273.2方法与数据................................................................................................................283.2.1能源经济模型：IMED|CGE...........................................................................283.2.2碳减排驱动因素分解：LDMI与SPA分解..................................................293.2.3空气污染物减排边际效应分析：回归模型..................................................313.2.4情景设置与数据..............................................................................................323.3未来温度目标减排情景模拟....................................................................................343.3.1能源消费和碳排放趋势..................................................................................343.3.2产业结构变化与经济影响..............................................................................353.3.3碳减排关键驱动因素分解..............................................................................37 3.3.4气候政策对于大气污染物的影响..................................................................393.3.5讨论与政策建议..............................................................................................44第四章粤港澳大湾区未来多情景下排放及O3浓度路径分析...........................................464.1未来多种情景下大湾区排放及O3浓度变化路径..................................................464.2空气质量模型对大湾区O3浓度模拟的改善与实验设置......................................474.3未来情景下大湾区分部门排放变化........................................................................524.4未来情景下大湾区臭氧及颗粒物浓度变化路径....................................................554.4.1 O3浓度变化路径.............................................................................................554.4.2 PM2.5浓度变化路径.........................................................................................574.4.3空气质量模拟路径不确定性分析..................................................................594.5未来情景下大湾区臭氧对前体物的敏感性变化....................................................60第五章粤港澳大湾区未来大气氧化性与温室气体变化分析.............................................645.1研究方法....................................................................................................................645.2排放控制与大气氧化性............................................................................................645.3减排路径与EKMA分析.........................................................................................