请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 -60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%000300.SH857352.SL投资要点 ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ 2 一、组件是光伏系统中的重要环节，需求随光伏装机高增 ............................................................ 4 1.光伏组件是太阳能发电系统中的重要组成部分............................................................................................ 4 2.组件投资强度小、建设周期短，产能属性弱 ............................................................................................... 5 3.光伏行业快速发展，组件需求也随之保持高速增长 .................................................................................... 6 二、品牌、渠道、成本管控能力为三大核心壁垒 .......................................................................... 7 1.组件使用期长，客户重视品牌背书 .............................................................................................................. 7 2.海外市场需求爆发，提前布局可享有渠道溢价............................................................................................ 8 3.受原材料价格波动影响大，成本管控能力要求高 ........................................................................................ 9 三、大尺寸、叠片、双面助力降本增效，一体化持续推进 .......................................................... 11 1.大尺寸硅片可有效摊薄单瓦非硅成本，硅片大尺寸趋势不可逆 ................................................................ 11 2.高效封装技术百花齐放，助力组件降本增效 ............................................................................................. 11 3.平抑产业链价格波动，一体化降本持续 .................................................................................................... 13 四、投资建议 ............................................................................................................................. 15 五、风险提示 ............................................................................................................................. 16 ............................................................................................................................................... 4 ................................................................................................................................................... 4 ........................................................................................................................................ 5 ...................................................................................... 6 .......................................................................................................................... 6 ......................................................................................................... 7 ................................................................................................................................ 8 ........................................................................................................... 8 ........................................................................................................................................ 9 ................................................................................................ 9 ............................................................................................................................................. 9 ...................................................................................................................... 10 ........................................................................................................................................... 10 ................................................................................................................................ 10 ......................................................................................................................... 10 .................................................................................................................................... 11 ............................................................................................................................ 12 .................................................................................................................................... 12 ................................................................................................................................ 13 3 ................................................................................................................................ 13 ......................................................................................................... 14 ........................................................................................ 14 ................................................................................................................................. 6 4 5 6 00.511.522.533.544.55硅料硅片电池片组件0510152025硅料硅片电池片组件 7 100%100%100%96%93%86%82%82%79%79%0%0%0%4%7%14%18%18%21%21%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%有融资性价值无融资性价值&没听说 8 8696117181239322461116144172268369508730010020030040050060070080020192020202120222023E2024E2025E国外光伏新增全球光伏新增0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45印度美国欧洲澳洲 9 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2018201920202021