Eric Wallerstein2023年6月8日万亿美元美国国债发售洪流恐打破市场平静cn.wsj.com/articles/万亿美元美国国债发售洪流恐打破市场平静-6cb4d6e1在达成债务上限协议后，美国财政部正在迅速充实财政收入。图片来源：Nathan Howard/Bloomberg NewsInvestors are bracing for a flood of more than $1 trillion of Treasurybills in the wake of the debt-ceiling fight, potentially sparking a newbout of volatility in financial markets. 美国债务上限之争过后，投资者正准备应对超过1万亿美元的美国国债发售洪流，这可能会引发金融市场的新一轮波动。Some on Wall Street fear that roughly $850 billion in bond issuancethat was shelved until a debt-ceiling deal was passed—sales expected between now and the end of September, accordingto JPMorgan analysts—will overwhelm buyers, jolting markets andraising short-term borrowing costs. 华尔街的一些人担心，在债务上限协议通过之前被搁置的大约8,500亿美元债券发售将让买家难以招架，导致市场震荡并推高短期借款成本。据摩根大通(JPMorgan)的分析师称，这部分债券预计会在目前到9月底之间发售。Few expect major upheaval, but many worry about the potential forunforeseen problems in the financial plumbing—where trillions ofdollars worth of transactions occur daily—that could send tremorsthroughout markets. Many remember how money-market ratesskyrocketed in 2019 during a period of low liquidity, necessitatingintervention by the Federal Reserve. 几乎没有人预计会出现严重动荡，但许多人担心，这一每天进行数万亿美元交易的金融管道可能会出现无法预见的问题，这可能会在各个市场掀起波澜。很多人还记得2019年流动性低迷时期货币市场利率飙升迫使美联储进行干预的情景。“When you dump a tremendous amount of debt into the market, itcauses dislocation,” said Jon Maier, chief investment officer ofGlobal X, an exchange-traded fund provider. “Investors areunderestimating that.”“当你在市场大量发售债券时，会造成混乱，”Global X的首席投资官Jon Maier说。“投资者目前低估了这一点。”Global X是一家ETF公司。In recent months, markets have been relatively placid. The S&P 500has gained 11% this year, buttressed by a resilient labor market, theAI-led tech stock rally, and signs that the Federal Reserve is enteringthe final stages of its interest-rate campaign. The Cboe VolatilityIndex, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge because it measures theprice of options that investors often use to protect against stockdeclines, is now hovering at multiyear lows. 近几个月来，市场一直相对平静。标普500指数今年已经上涨了11%，这得益于劳动力市场充满韧性、AI引领科技股反弹，并且有迹象显示美联储正步入加息行动的最后阶段。CBOE波动率指数目前徘徊在多年低点，其衡量的是投资者经常用来对冲股票下跌的期权价格，因此被称为华尔街恐慌指数。The calm comes even as short-term bond yields have alreadyjumped in recent weeks, lifted by expectations for the Fed to holdrates higher for longer. The two-year yield finishedWednesday at 4.548%, up more than 0.8 point from its year-to-datelows seen a month ago. The 10-year ended at 3.782%.由于预期美联储将在更长时间里保持利率在更高水平，短期债券收益率在最近几周已经跳升，但即便如此，市场仍是相对平静。两年期美国国债收益率周三收于4.548%，较一个月前触及的年内低点上升了逾0.8个点。10年期美国国债收益率周三收于3.782%。 Now the Treasury Department is rapidly replenishing its coffers. Aweaker-than-expected tax season, coupled with “extraordinarymeasures” enacted during the debt-ceiling fight to keep paying thegovernment’s bills, has drained its checking account held at the Fedto below $50 billion as of the end of May. Officials last said it wastargeting a balance of $600 billion for what’s known as the TreasuryGeneral Account, or TGA.现在美国财政部正在迅速充实财政收入。鉴于这个税收季的收入低于预期，并且在债务上限之争期间为继续支付政府账单而采取了“非常措施”，截至5月底，财政部在美联储开设的账户里的资金已消耗至500亿美元以下。官员们最近说，目标是让财政部在美联储的一般账户(TGA)余额达到6,000亿美元。That could weigh on the large banks that are required to bid forTreasurys at auction through an agreement with the government asthe so-called primary dealers could be effectively forced to financethe replenishment of the TGA. At the same time, regulators areseeking to boost banks’ cash buffers to avoid another banking crisis.Further draining liquidity from markets, the Fed is allowing itsbalance sheet to shrink. 这或许会让一些得按照一项与政府的协议在拍卖会上投标美国国债的大银行承压，此类所谓一级交易商可能实际上要被迫为财政部补充TGA而提供资金支持。与此同时，监管机构正寻求提升银行的现金缓冲，以避免另一场银行危机。进一步从市场抽走流动性的美联储正允许自己的资产负债表收缩。 But even if banks pulled back from short-term funding markets,history suggests Fed officials would quickly extinguish any fires. InSeptember 2019, the central bank unveiled a facility to providebanks with cash even though the rate spike’s cause was unclear.That facility, which brought down rates almost immediately, nowexists as a permanent safeguard to help maintain the Fed’s rein onrates. 不过，即使银行从短期融资市场撤出，从历史经验看，美联储官员也会迅速灭火。2019年9月，美联储推出了一项为银行提供现金的安排，尽管当时利率飙升的原因并未明确。这项安排几乎是立即压低了利率，现在作为一项长期保障措施存在，以帮助美联储维系对利率的控制。 “It’s that unintended, unexamined, event that causes a clogging upof the financial plumbing,” said Joseph Brusuelas, principal and chiefeconomist at RSM US. “That doesn’t mean the doomsayers are right—if a hiccup occurs, the Fed will step in.”"那种未经核实的意外事件导致金融管道堵塞，"RSM US的首席经济学家Joseph Brusuelas说。“这并不意味着末日论者是正确的。如果发生堵塞，美联储将介入。”The latest program for at-risk banks, created during the Marchregional banking panic, reiterated the Fed’s willingness to come tothe banking system’s aid, some analysts said. 一些分析人士称，在3月份地区性银行业恐慌中针对有风险的银行制定的最新计划，重申了美联储向银行系统施以援手的意愿。Primary dealers told the Treasury Department in April that “there isample scope to expeditiously increase the supply of bills,” citingmoney-market fund assets and the Fed’s overnight reverserepurchase facility, known as reverse repo, as shock-absorbers. ATreasury spokesperson said the agency has r