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2022年报点评:营收持续高增,静待成本传导

金力永磁,3007482023-03-31邓轲中航证券立***
2022年报点评:营收持续高增,静待成本传导

1 指标2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E营业收入(百万元)4,0807,1657,54510,02812,015增速(%)68.78%75.61%5.30%32.92%19.81%归母净利润(百万元)4537038441,2131,532增速(%)85.32%55.09%20.12%43.67%26.33%每股收益(元)0.540.841.011.451.83市盈率(倍)52.1233.6027.9819.4715.41 12.917.024.240.871.741.3%31.6%42.5%68.8%75.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.020182019202020212022营业总收入(亿元)增速1.471.572.444.537.035.6%6.6%55.8%85.3%55.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%01234567820182019202020212022归母净利润(亿元)增速22.7%21.6%23.8%22.4%16.2%11.4%9.2%10.1%11.1%9.8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%20182019202020212022销售毛利率销售净利率49.1%31.1%12.2%4.3%3.3%新能源汽车及汽车零部件变频空调风电机器人及工业伺服电机3C020406080100120140160Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23镨钕金属现货均价(含税)镨钕氧化物现货均价(含税)02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800050100150200250300350Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23氧化镝(Dy2O3/TREO 99.5-99.9%) 现货均价(含税)氧化铽(Tb4O7/TREO 99.95-99.99%) 现货均价(含税) (右轴) iFinD 2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q42021Q32021Q22021Q1营业收入(百万元)1952191017951509116211091015793营业成本(百万元)1761161914091216914887775589销售费用率0.5%0.3%0.8%0.4%0.7%0.4%0.4%1.1%管理费用率1.6%1.5%2.8%2.4%1.8%3.9%4.2%4.8%财务费用率0.3%-2.4%-6.6%0.4%4.5%-0.1%1.0%2.6%研发费用率6.0%4.2%4.6%3.9%5.0%2.2%4.5%4.1%资产减值损失(百万元)-3.4 -2.7 -1.3 -2.9 -3.2 -0.9 -2.6 -0.6 利润总额(百万元)24220340183112153136112所得税费用(百万元)6.9-3.5 39.918.810.621.416.79.8净利润(百万元)17224300164102131119102EPS(元)0.020.270.360.200.140.190.170.23毛利率9.8%15.2%21.5%19.4%21.3%20.0%23.7%25.7%期间费用率8.3%3.6%1.6%7.1%12.0%6.3%10.1%12.6%所得税率29.3%-1.6%11.7%10.3%9.4%14.0%12.3%8.8%净利润率0.9%11.7%16.7%10.9%8.8%11.8%11.7%12.8%资产负债表利润表会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025E会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025E货币资金756.751499.514130.253480.133848.644738.11营业收入2417.354080.077165.197544.9810028.4712015.11应收票据及账款988.811630.652838.012811.283626.734279.36营业成本1842.793165.136006.165981.667922.239454.40预付账款56.7134.9936.7241.3454.9565.84税金及附加9.1414.6424.7727.0635.9743.10其他应收款14.722.8410.1810.3413.7416.46销售费用17.2324.9736.1145.2755.1660.08存货924.991324.201931.141884.632387.522590.25管理费用95.16145.09147.71188.62220.63240.30其他流动资产17.8272.77180.6685.45110.28130.15研发费用103.18160.16337.48347.07441.25504.63流动资产总计2759.784564.969126.968313.1710041.8611820.16财务费用77.3381.46-153.96 17.29-2.78 -4.98 长期股权投资10.773.505.1426.6448.1469.64资产减值损失-5.44 -7.30 -10.28 -15.09 -20.06 -24.03 固定资产514.59690.251322.131229.521185.911189.49信用减值损失-6.95 -0.88 -11.94 -7.54 -10.03 -12.02 在建工程47.98354.62394.76468.97499.84474.05其他经营损益0.00-0.00 -0.00 0.000.000.00无形资产83.50197.23217.68195.98187.20174.84投资收益3.9614.53-10.60 4.004.004.00长期待摊费用16.7025.746.003.000.000.00公允价值变动损益0.724.57-10.45 2.002.002.00其他非流动资产87.04214.47147.78152.50154.00155.50资产处置收益-0.37 -0.82 0.740.500.600.70非流动资产合计760.591485.822093.492076.602075.092063.51其他收益17.0813.9544.3920.0020.0020.00资产总计3520.376050.7811220.4610389.7712116.9513883.67营业利润281.53512.67768.81941.871352.521708.25短期借款266.861128.35945.500.000.000.00营业外收入1.112.350.081.001.001.00应付票据及账款621.331017.662603.492130.452821.623367.32营业外支出3.952.712.192.502.502.50其他流动负债382.75422.02562.31571.36754.24897.76其他非经营损益0.000.000.000.000.000.00流动负债合计1270.942568.024111.302701.813575.864265.08利润总额278.68512.31766.69940.371351.021706.75长期借款611.02416.44207.07207.07207.07207.07所得税34.0058.4962.1194.04135.10170.67其他非流动负债70.7899.97114.32100.00101.00102.00净利润244.68453.82704.58846.341215.921536.07非流动负债合计681.80516.41321.39307.07308.07309.07少数股东损益0.200.751.902.293.284.15负债合计1952.743084.434432.683008.883883.924574.15归属母公司股东净利润244.48453.07702.69844.051212.641531.92股本415.98710.97837.96837.96837.96837.96EBITDA412.31670.75721.661228.271659.262065.84资本公积472.451291.964474.714474.714474.714474.71NOPLAT315.07522.98574.91861.001212.431530.51留存收益679.03962.471472.182063.022911.863984.21EPS(元)0.290.540.841.011.451.83归属母公司权益1567.462965.406784.857375.698224.539296.88少数股东权益0.180.952.925.218.4912.64主要财务比率股东权益合计1567.632966.356787.777380.908233.029309.52会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025E负债和股东权益合计3520.376050.7811220.4610389.7712116.9513883.67成长能力营收增长率42.46% 68.78% 75.61% 5.30% 32.92% 19.81% 现金流量表营业利润增长率57.66% 82.10% 49.96% 22.51% 43.60% 26.30% 会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025EEBIT增长率65.32% 66.78% 3.19% 56.29% 40.78% 26.22% 税后经营利润244.68453.82704.58823.841193.331513.39EBITDA增长率57.23% 62.68% 7.59% 70.20% 35.09% 24.50% 折旧与摊销56.3076.98108.93270.61311.02364.08归母净利润增长率55.84% 85.32% 55.09% 20.12% 43.67% 26.33% 财务费用77.3381.46-153.96 17.29-2.78 -4.98 经营现金流增长率263.85% -35.73% 206.13% 128.14% 47.77% 63.59% 投资损失-3.96 -14.53 10.60-4.00 -4.00 -4.00 盈利能力营运资金变动-252.51 -520.75 -503.73 -430.57 -486.14 -199.59 毛利率23.77% 22.42% 16.18% 20.72% 21.00% 21.31% 其他经营现金流34.0323.20140.2722.5022.5022.50净利率10.12% 11.12% 9.83% 11.22% 12.12% 12.78% 经营性现金净流量155.87100.18306.68699.661033.931691.39营业利润率11.65% 12.57% 10.73% 12.48% 13.49% 14.22% 资本支出165.71646.65568.13259.32287.00330.00ROE15.60% 15.28% 10.36% 11.44% 14.74% 16.48% 长期投资-0.01 4.08-172.89 -22.50 -22.50 -22.50 ROA6.94% 7.49% 6.26% 8.12% 10.01% 11.03% 其他投资现金流-42.42 -9.98 -13.31 148.034.094.18ROIC19.82% 27.13% 16.85% 19.69% 24.99% 27.41% 投资性现金净流量-208.14 -652.54 -754.33 -133.78 -