PVC日报：政策利好频现，PVC偏强反弹

请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明策略摘要截止11.24日，PVC期货价格偏强反弹；美联储会议纪要显示多数官员支持放慢加息步伐；国常会发布适时降准消息；央行、银保监会正式发文全面支持房地产企业融资；山东信发40万吨新装置开始试车；PVC行业整体有所减亏；电石出厂价小部分地区上调；期现基差走弱。核心观点■市场分析期货市场：截止11.24日PVC主力收盘6017元/吨（+3.53%）；前二十位主力多头持仓：374171（+9954）空头持仓：353575（-1080）；净多持仓：20595（+18649）。现货：截至11..24日华东（电石法）报价：5930元/吨（+80）；华南（电石法）报价：6060元/吨（+60）。兰炭：截止11.24日陕西1534元/吨（0）。电石：截止11.24日华北3990元/吨（0）。观点：PVC处于“预期向好现实承压”矛盾之中，一方面国常会降准预期叠加“地产16条”政策给地产市场注入重大利好；另一方面PVC孱弱的基本面尚无重大变化，依旧处于高企的库存以及低迷的需求当中，且短期内恐难改变。新政的传导以及政策落地尚需时间。近期PVC期货走势易受宏观面冲击，反弹高度有待观察，建议投资者暂回避。■策略中性；预期向好现实承压，观望。■风险人民币汇率变化；原油走势以及地产数据情况。期货研究报告|PVC日报2022-11-25政策利好频现，PVC偏强反弹研究院能源化工组研究员潘翔0755-82767160panxiang@htfc.com从业资格号：F3023104投资咨询号：Z0013188陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616康远宁0755-23991175kangyuanning@htfc.com从业资格号：F3049404投资咨询号：Z0015842联系人裴紫叶15801022486peiziye@htfc.com从业资格号：F03100446投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC日报丨2022/11/25请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明目录策略摘要..............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点..............................................................................................................................................................................................1图表图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................4图11:西北自有电石综合氯碱利润丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................4图12:山东外购电石综合氯碱利润丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%......................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%......................................................................................................................................................5图15:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................5图16:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................5图17:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%..........................................................................................................................................5图18:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%..........................................................................................................................................5图19:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%..........................................................................................................................................6图20:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨..........................................................................................................................................6图21:PVC社会库存（卓创）丨单位：万吨...................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC社会库存（V风）丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC上游库存丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................