热轧卷板市场周报：热卷产量及库存下滑，期价重心上移

热卷产量及库存下滑，期价重心上移「2022.9.23」作者：陈一兰期货投资咨询证号：Z0012698热轧卷板市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热轧卷板期价先抑后扬。上半周走势疲软，因市场预期美联储将维持激进加息，市场情绪受挫，投机采购持续性不足，但随着周三晚美联储加息落地，市场空头情绪得到释放，叠加本期热卷周度产量及库存均出现下滑，支撑期价止跌反弹。下周热卷期价或震荡偏强。供应端，热卷周度产量或维持在310万吨附近，产能利用率则维持在79%左右。需求端，下游需求有所回暖，且下周为国庆节前最后一周，备库体量或比本周表现更明显，去库幅度或有扩大。最后，国内稳经济增长政策或继续提振市场信心。技术上，HC2301合约日线MACD 指标显示DIFF与DEA低位反弹；BOLL指标显示上轨与下轨开口缩小，期价向上突破中轴。操作上建议，震荡偏多交易，注意盘面变化及风险控制。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格先抑后扬本周，HC2301合约先抑后扬。本周，HC2210合约走势弱于HC2301合约，23日价差为128元/吨，周环比-20元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0204060801001201401601802002022-01-202022-01-282022-02-142022-02-222022-03-022022-03-102022-03-182022-03-282022-04-072022-04-152022-04-252022-05-062022-05-162022-05-242022-06-012022-06-102022-06-202022-06-282022-07-062022-07-142022-07-222022-08-012022-08-092022-08-172022-08-252022-09-022022-09-132022-09-21HC2210-HC2301合约价差010000020000030000040000050000060000070000080000090000035003600370038003900400041004200430044002022-07-012022-07-052022-07-072022-07-112022-07-132022-07-152022-07-192022-07-212022-07-252022-07-272022-07-292022-08-022022-08-042022-08-082022-08-102022-08-122022-08-162022-08-182022-08-222022-08-242022-08-262022-08-302022-09-012022-09-052022-09-072022-09-092022-09-142022-09-162022-09-202022-09-22HC2301合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单减少，前20名持仓净空减少9月23日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为113790吨，周环比-5835吨。9月23日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空22308张，较上一周减少7175张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-022020-02-062020-03-042020-03-312020-04-282020-05-282020-06-242020-07-232020-08-192020-09-152020-10-202020-11-162020-12-112021-01-082021-02-042021-03-102021-04-072021-05-072021-06-032021-07-012021-07-282021-08-242021-09-222021-10-262021-11-222021-12-172022-01-142022-02-172022-03-162022-04-142022-05-162022-06-132022-07-082022-08-042022-08-31库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-140000-120000-100000-80000-60000-40000-20000020000400004000004500005000005500006000006500007000007500008000002021-12-232021-12-312022-01-112022-01-192022-01-272022-02-112022-02-212022-03-012022-03-092022-03-172022-03-252022-04-062022-04-142022-04-222022-05-052022-05-132022-05-232022-05-312022-06-092022-06-172022-06-272022-07-052022-07-132022-07-212022-07-292022-08-082022-08-162022-08-242022-09-012022-09-092022-09-20热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格上调9月23日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为3930元/吨，周环比+30元/吨；全国均价为4039元/吨，周环比+10元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格弱于期货价格，23日基差为111元/吨，周环比-31元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002022-01-042022-01-112022-01-182022-01-252022-01-302022-02-112022-02-182022-02-252022-03-042022-03-112022-03-182022-03-252022-04-012022-04-112022-04-182022-04-242022-04-292022-05-102022-05-172022-05-242022-05-312022-06-082022-06-152022-06-222022-06-292022-07-062022-07-132022-07-202022-07-272022-08-032022-08-102022-08-172022-08-242022-08-312022-09-072022-09-152022-09-22全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-200-10001002003004005006007003000350040004500500055006000650070002021-01-042021-01-222021-02-182021-03-102021-03-302021-04-202021-05-132021-06-022021-06-232021-07-132021-08-022021-08-202021-09-092021-10-082021-10-282021-11-172021-12-072021-12-272022-01-172022-02-112022-03-032022-03-232022-04-142022-05-092022-05-272022-06-172022-07-072022-07-272022-08-162022-09-05HC2301合约期现基差1月基差期货收盘价(1月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调，焦炭现货价格持平9月23日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报812元/干吨，周环比+2元/干吨。9月23日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2810元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院1000150020002500300035004000450050002020-01-022020-02-072020-03-092020-04-082020-05-122020-06-102020-07-102020-08-102020-09-082020-10-132020-11-112020-12-102021-01-112021-02-082021-03-162021-04-152021-05-192021-06-182021-07-192021-08-172021-09-152021-10-252021-11-232021-12-222022-01-212022-02-242022-03-252022-04-272022-05-302022-06-292022-07-282022-08-26天津港一级冶金焦85105125145165185205225245500700900110013001500170019002021-01-042021-01-272021-02-262021-03-232021-04-162021-05-142021-06-082021-07-022021-07-272021-08-192021-09-132021-10-152021-11-092021-12-022021-12-272022-01-202022-02-212022-03-162022-04-122022-05-102022-06-022022-06-282022-07-212022-08-152022-09-07青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量增加据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2541.8万吨，环比增加167.7万吨。9月12日-9月18日中国47港到港总量2519.2万吨，环比增加172.0万吨；中国45港到港总量2359.6万吨，环比增加121.6万吨；北方六港到港总量为1417.1万吨，环比增加389.4万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-172019-03-312019-05-122019-06-232019-08-042019-09-152019-10-272019-12-082020-01-192020-03-012020-04-122020-05-242020-07-052020-08-162020-09-272020-11-082020-12-202021-01-312021-03-142021-04-252021-06-062021-07-182021-08-292021-10-102021-11-212022-01-02202