热轧卷板市场周报：热卷库存继续下滑，期价重心上移

热卷库存继续下滑，期价重心上移「2022.9.9」作者：陈一兰期货投资咨询证号：Z0012698热轧卷板市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热轧卷板期价震荡上行。发改委表示，接续政策从供需两端协同发力，着力扩大有效需求，继续提振市场信心，热卷期货盘面回涨，现货价格跟随上调，市场情绪继续改善。周四和周五则进一步走高，因稳经济增长政策暖风再吹，同时炉料走高及热卷库存再度下滑。下周热卷期价或震荡偏强。供应端，在限电和限产影响程度逐步减弱后，钢厂复产积极性将提升，热卷周度产量或继续回升。需求端，下游需求或随着高温逐渐退去，叠加政策性利好支撑需求回暖。最后，国常会再吹稳经济暖风也将一定程度上提振市场信心。技术上，HC2301合约日线MACD 指标显示DIFF与DEA运行于0轴下方；BOLL指标显示上轨与下轨开口缩小，期价测试中轴压力。操作上建议，震荡偏多交易，注意风险控制。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格震荡上行本周，HC2301合约震荡上行。本周，HC2210合约走势弱于HC2301合约，9日价差为121元/吨，周环比-53元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0204060801001201401601802002022-01-202022-01-272022-02-102022-02-172022-02-242022-03-032022-03-102022-03-172022-03-242022-03-312022-04-112022-04-182022-04-252022-05-052022-05-122022-05-192022-05-262022-06-022022-06-102022-06-172022-06-242022-07-012022-07-082022-07-152022-07-222022-07-292022-08-052022-08-122022-08-192022-08-262022-09-022022-09-09HC2210-HC2301合约价差01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000003500360037003800390040004100420043004400HC2301合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单增加，前20名持仓净空增加9月9日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为44060吨，周环比+30179吨。9月9日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空49296张，较上一周+16032张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-022020-02-062020-03-042020-03-312020-04-282020-05-282020-06-242020-07-232020-08-192020-09-152020-10-202020-11-162020-12-112021-01-082021-02-042021-03-102021-04-072021-05-072021-06-032021-07-012021-07-282021-08-242021-09-222021-10-262021-11-222021-12-172022-01-142022-02-172022-03-162022-04-142022-05-162022-06-132022-07-082022-08-042022-08-31库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-140000-120000-100000-80000-60000-40000-20000020000400004000004500005000005500006000006500007000007500008000002021-12-232021-12-302022-01-072022-01-142022-01-212022-01-282022-02-112022-02-182022-02-252022-03-042022-03-112022-03-182022-03-252022-04-012022-04-122022-04-192022-04-262022-05-062022-05-132022-05-202022-05-272022-06-062022-06-132022-06-202022-06-272022-07-042022-07-112022-07-182022-07-252022-08-012022-08-082022-08-152022-08-222022-08-292022-09-05热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格上调9月9日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为3940元/吨，周环比+80元/吨；全国均价为4045元/吨，周环比+47元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格弱于期货价格，9日基差为102元/吨，周环比-58元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350040004500500055006000650070002021-01-042021-01-182021-02-012021-02-192021-03-042021-03-182021-04-012021-04-162021-04-292021-05-172021-05-312021-06-152021-06-292021-07-132021-07-272021-08-102021-08-242021-09-072021-09-222021-10-112021-10-252021-11-082021-11-222021-12-062021-12-202022-01-042022-01-182022-01-302022-02-182022-03-042022-03-182022-04-012022-04-182022-04-292022-05-172022-05-312022-06-152022-06-292022-07-132022-07-272022-08-102022-08-242022-09-07全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-200-10001002003004005006007003000350040004500500055006000650070002021-01-042021-01-212021-02-092021-03-052021-03-242021-04-132021-04-302021-05-242021-06-102021-06-302021-07-192021-08-052021-08-242021-09-102021-10-082021-10-272021-11-152021-12-022021-12-212022-01-102022-01-272022-02-222022-03-112022-03-302022-04-202022-05-122022-05-312022-06-202022-07-072022-07-262022-08-122022-08-31HC2301合约期现基差1月基差期货收盘价(1月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调，焦炭现货价格下调9月9日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报803元/干吨，周环比+34元/干吨。9月9日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2810元/吨，周环比-100元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院1000150020002500300035004000450050002020-01-022020-02-072020-03-092020-04-082020-05-122020-06-102020-07-102020-08-102020-09-082020-10-132020-11-112020-12-102021-01-112021-02-082021-03-162021-04-152021-05-192021-06-182021-07-192021-08-172021-09-152021-10-252021-11-232021-12-222022-01-212022-02-242022-03-252022-04-272022-05-302022-06-292022-07-282022-08-26天津港一级冶金焦85105125145165185205225245500700900110013001500170019002021-01-042021-01-262021-02-242021-03-182021-04-122021-05-072021-05-312021-06-232021-07-152021-08-062021-08-302021-09-232021-10-222021-11-152021-12-072021-12-292022-01-212022-02-212022-03-152022-04-082022-05-052022-05-272022-06-212022-07-132022-08-042022-08-26青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量增加据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2600.0万吨，环比增加46.7万吨。8月29日-9月4日中国47港到港总量1893.6万吨，环比减少501.6万吨；中国45港到港总量1824.4万吨，环比减少492.7万吨；北方六港到港总量为1104.4万吨，环比增加4.0万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-172019-03-312019-05-122019-06-232019-08-042019-09-152019-10-272019-12-082020-01-192020-03-012020-04-122020-05-242020-07-052020-08-162020-09-272020-11-082020-12-202021-01-312021-03-142021-04-252021-06-062021-07-182021-08-292021-10-102021-11-212022-01-022022-02-132022-03-272022-05-082022-06-192022-07-31澳巴铁矿石发货总量增减澳巴总量-1000-800-600-400-20002004006008001500170019002100230025002700290031002021/1/32021/1/242021/