请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2022年5月10日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：4月份30大中城市商品房成交面积同比减少54.24%，成交量仍明显低于往年同期。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨1.51%，涨幅较上月回落0.21个百分点。 房地产开发投资：3月份房地产开发企业土地购置费为4435.79亿元，较上年同期的4731.41亿元下降6.25%。 政策：4月份政治局会议定调支持各地从当地实际情况出发完善房地产政策。全国多个城市适度放松房地产调控政策，内容包括放宽限购资格、降低首付比例等。金融管理部门提出加大对房企融资支持，要求金融机构不盲目抽贷、断贷、压贷。 重点房企：4月份百强房企销售操盘金额同比下降58.6%；新希望地产并购雅居乐旗下项目；招商蛇口拟与佳兆业就资产转让开展合作；金科股份、绿地控股为旗下多家公司新增提供担保，累积担保余额占净资产比例较高。 债券发行与到期：4月份房地产行业共发行债券602.24亿元，通过债市净融资-306.99亿元。2020年9月至2022年4月，国内房地产行业债券存量规模压降了约3695.74亿元。 信用事件与利差：4月份有5只债券违约、4只债券展期。无主体和债券的信用级别被下调。4月下旬兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）明显下降，4月末较上月末下降了14.23BP。 总结与展望：近期商品房销量一直低于往年同期，房企土地购置费支出也同步减少，当前行业可能已经步入开发投资、销售双降的新常态。近期房地产企业在出清资产和负债，以适应行业新常态。在负债出清后，行业整体的债务风险也随之下降。展望未来，各地销售、限购政策会进一步放宽甚至取消，利好房地产企业销售回款。此外，并购债券、并购贷款等纾困资金也利于房企风险化解，预计不会再出现大面积违约情况。但疫情封控可能会阻碍房企在部分区域的销售回款。 相关研究报告： 1.《2022年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交面积下滑，房企债券融资继续净流出》，2021.04.11 2.《2022年2月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交面积下降，4家主体信用级别下调》，2022.03.10 3.《2022年1月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交面积下降，房企债市融资持续净流出》，2021.02.16 房地产开发投资与销售双降，行业步入新常态 ——2022年4月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China May 10th, 2022 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has declined by 54.24% year-on-year in April, which was still significantly lower than in the same period of previous years. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has increased by 1.51% month-on-month, and the increase was down 0.21 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of real estate development investment, the land purchase cost of real estate development enterprises in April was 443.579 billion yuan, down 6.25% from 473.141 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year. In terms of policies, the Politburo meeting in April set the tone to support local governments in improving real estate policies based on local conditions. Many cities have moderately relaxed real estate control policies, including relaxing purchase restrictions and lowering the down payment ratio. The financial management department proposed to increase financing support for real estate companies, requiring financial institutions not to blindly withdraw, cut off, or suppress loans. In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies in April has decreased by 58.6% year-on-year. Newhope Real Estate acquired the projects of Agile. China Merchants Shekou plans to cooperate with Kaisa Group on asset transfer. Jinke Property and Greenland Holdings provided new guarantees for many of its subsidiaries, and the accumulated guarantee balance accounts for a relatively high proportion of their net assets. In terms of bond issuance and maturity, the real estate industry has issued 60.224 billion yuan bonds in April, and has received -30.699 billion yuan of net financing through bond market. From September 2020 to April 2022, the bond balance of thedomestic real estate industry has dropped by about 369.574 billion yuan. In terms of credit events and spreads, 5 bonds have defaulted and 4 bonds have been rolled over in April. No credit ratings for entities and bonds were downgraded. The bond credit spread (median) of real estate industry dropped significantly in late April, with a decrease of 14.23BP at the end of April compared with the end of the previous month. Looking ahead, the sales volume of commercialized buildings has been lower than the same period of previous years recently, and the land purchase expenses of real estate companies have also decreased simultaneously. The current industry may have entered a new normal of double decline in development investment and sales. Recently, real estate companies are clearing their assets and liabilities to adapt to the new normal of the industry. After the debt is cleared, the overall debt risk of the industry also decreases. In the future, the sales and purchase restriction policies in various regions will be further relaxed or Real estate development investment and sales both dropped, and the industry entered a new normal ——April 2022 real estate industry observation and bond market operation report Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China May 10th, 2022 even cancelled, which will benefit real estate companies' sales receipts. In addition, rescue funds such as M&A bonds and M&A loans are also conducive to risk mitigation for real estate companies, and it is expected that there will be no more large-scale defaults. However, the epidemic control may hinder the sales collection