请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2023年5月19日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：梅芷菁 申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：4月份30大中城市商品房成交面积环比下降24.84%，同比上涨28.37%，与过去10年均值水平相比下降25.60%。十大城市商品房库存去化周期继续缩短。百城新建住宅平均价格环比上涨0.02%，同比下跌0.07%，主要 受到三线城市住宅价格下跌影响。 新开工面积：4月全国房屋新开工面积为7099万m2，同比下降28.30%，降幅 较2022年全年39.40%的跌幅 收窄。长期来看，新开工面积仍处低位。 政策：国税 总局表示要延续实施首套及第二套改善性住房契税减免政策；银保监会鼓励金融机构为进城农民及农村居民住房消费提供金融支持；最高法做出《关于商品房消费者权利保护问题的批复》。地方层面，淮安、马鞍山、衢州、驻马店、宝鸡、常州、沈阳、赣州、兰州等9个城市下调首套房贷利率，各地继续积极出台购房支持政策，包括放松限购、放宽公积金提取及贷款条件、提高公积金提取及贷款额度、降低房贷首付比例、提供购房补贴、推行房票安置等。 重点房企：4月份TOP100房企销售总额同比增长29.9%；迪马股份、金地集团、中南建设、滨江集团为子公司提供担保；中南建设公布A股定增申报稿。 债券发行与到期：4月份房地产行业共发行债券624.68亿元，偿还债券1099.33亿元， 通过债市净融资-474.66亿元。 信用事件与利差：4月份有1只债券违约，6只债券展期。无主体和债券的信用级别被下调。 总结与展望：需求方面，房地产市场需求复苏放缓，各地继续积极出台购房支持政策。供给方面，新开工面积处于低位或将影响未来一到两年的市场供给量。未来房地产市场供需两端政策有望持续优化，一二线城市房地产市场回暖态势有望保持，不同能级城市分化将继续加剧。预期未来优质房企信用将较为稳定 ，同时仍需关注尾部房企的违约风险。 相关研究报告： 1. 《商品房销售明显复苏，境内债发行持续回温——2023年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.4.23 2. 《商品房销售有所复苏，债券发行继续回温——2023年2月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.3.20 3. 《2023年1月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：行业支持政策持续推出，债券发行量开始回温》，2023.2.20 商品房销售复苏放缓，各线城市分化加剧 ——2023年4月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China May 19th, 2023 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has decreased by 24.84% month-on-month, increased by 28.37% year-on-year in April, decreased by 25.60% compared to the average level of the past 10 years. The destocking cycle of commercial housing in the ten major cities continued to shorten. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has decreased by 0.07% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline of prices in third-tier cities. In terms of new construction area, the national new housing construction area in April was 70.99 million m², and declined by 28.30% year-on-year, remaining at a low level. In terms of policies, the State Taxation Administration said it would continue to implement the first and second home improvement deed tax deduction policy. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission encouraged financial institutions to provide financial support for housing consumption of rural residents and farmers in cities. The Supreme Court issued the Reply on the Protection of Consumer Rights of Commercial Housing. At the local level, nine cities lowered interest rates on first-home mortgages. The support policies for housing purchases have been constantly introduced in various regions, including providing subsidies for housing purchases, relaxing purchase restrictions, reducing the down payment ratio of housing loans, increasing the amount of housing loans, relaxing the restrictions on the qualification of housing loans, adjust housing provident fund policies, etc. In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies in April has increased by 29.9% year-on-year. Dima Holdings, Gemdale Group, Zhongnan Construction and Binjiang Real Estate provided guarantees for their subsidiaries; Zhongnan Construction announced A-share placement application draft. In terms of bond issuance and maturity, the real estate industry has issued 62.468 billion yuan bonds, repaid 109.933 billion yuan bonds in April and has received -47.466 billion yuan of net financing through bond market. In terms of credit events and spreads, 1 bond has defaulted and 6 bonds have been extended in April. No credit ratings for entities and bonds were downgraded. Looking ahead, on the demand side, the recovery of real estate market demand slowed down, and local governments continue to actively introduce housing support policies. On the supply side, the low level of new construction area may affect the market supply in the next one to two years. Preventing and defusing risks will remain an important task for the real estate The recovery of commercialized building sales slows down, as the differentiation among cities intensifies ——April 2023 real estate industry observation and bond market operation report Author: Mei Zhijing, Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China May 19th, 2023 industry. In the future, the policies on both ends of supply and demand of the real estate market will continue to be optimized, the recovery of the re