您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[远东资信]:2022年7月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态:土地销售市场热度双降,行业债券信用利差收窄 - 发现报告
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2022年7月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态:土地销售市场热度双降,行业债券信用利差收窄

房地产2022-08-11曹晓婧远东资信孙***
2022年7月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态:土地销售市场热度双降,行业债券信用利差收窄

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明2022年8月11日远东研究·行业研究摘要作者:曹晓婧邮箱:research@fecr.com.cn商品房量价:7月份30大中城市商品房成交面积环比减少30.05%,同比减少33.73%。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨0.52%,涨幅较上月回落0.36个百分点。房企土地购置:6月份房企土地成交价款及土地购置面积同比分别减少65.13%、52.81%,土地平均购置价格同比下跌26.10%。房企新土地项目投资明显放缓。政策:7月份银保监会就“停贷”事件作出回应,中央政治局会议首次提出“保交楼”、再次强调支持刚性及改善性住房需求。全国多个城市出台房地产放松政策,主要包括放宽公积金贷款、放宽购房条件、提供购房补贴、缓解房企压力等。重点房企:7月份百强房企销售操盘金额环比降低28.6%,同比降低39.7%;云南城投、蓝光发展、阳光城对外提供担保,担保余额占净资产比例较高;天誉置业触发所有境外债务交叉违约,提出清盘呈请;富力地产境外全资子公司10只美元债豁免违约及展期获通过;华南城出售物业资产。债券发行与到期:7月份房地产行业共发行债券1011.69亿元,通过债市净融资-181.08亿元。2020年9月至2022年7月国内房地产行业债券存量规模压降了3870.49亿元。信用事件与利差:7月份有1只债券违约、15只债券展期,无主体和债券的信用级别调整情况。7月末兴业房地产行业债券信用利差(中位数)较上月末下降了9.69BP。总结与展望:7月份商品房销售市场复苏承压,土地市场持续低迷,债券发行市场回暖。行业债券信用利差有所收窄,但仍需防范部分高负债且下半年债务集中到期的中小规模房企风险。未来更多“保交楼”、支持刚性及改善性需求的政策急需落地,从供需两侧帮助市场恢复信心,促进房企销售回款以缓解部分流动性压力。相关研究报告:1.《2022年6月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态:商品房销售市场回暖,房企债券融资继续净流出》,2022.07.142.《2022年5月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态:房地产调控政策不断放松,行业信用暂时稳定》,2022.06.083.《2022年4月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态:房地产开发投资与销售双降,行业步入新常态》,2022.05.10土地销售市场热度双降,行业债券信用利差收窄——2022年7月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明MonthlyIndustryObservationofChinaAug11th,2022SummaryIntermsofsalesvolumeandpricesofcommercialhousing,thetransactionareaofcommercialhousingin30largeandmedium-sizedcitiesdeclinedby30.05%month-on-monthanddeclinedby33.73%year-on-yearinJuly.Theaveragepriceofnewlybuiltresidentialbuildingsin“100cities”increasedby0.52%year-on-year,andtheincreasewas0.36percentagepointslowerthanthatofthepreviousmonth.Intermsofrealestatelandpurchase,thelandtransactionpriceandlandpurchaseareaofrealestateenterprisesdecreasedby65.13%and52.81%year-on-yearrespectively,andtheaveragelandpurchasepricedecreasedby26.10%year-on-yearinJune.Investmentinnewlandprojectsbyrealestatecompaniesslowedmarkedly.Intermsofpolicies,inJuly,theChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionrespondedtothe"loansuspension"incident,thePolitburomeetingproposedthe"guaranteeexchangebuilding"forthefirsttimeandemphasizedsupportforrigidandimprovedhousingdemandagain.Manycitieshavemoderatelyrelaxedrealestatecontrolpolicies,includingeasingloansfromtheprovidentfund,relaxingpurchaserestrictions,providinghousingsubsidies,andeasingpressureonhousingenterprises.Intermsofkeyrealestatecompanies,thesalesamountofTOP100realestatecompaniesinJulydecreasedby28.6%month-on-monthanddecreasedby39.7%year-on-year.YunnanMetropolitanRealEstateDevelopment,LanguangDevelopmentandYangoGroupprovidedexternalguarantees,andtheyallhavehighguaranteedbalancesrelativetotheirnetassets;SkyfameRealtytriggeredthecrossdefaultofallitsoverseasdebtsandfiledaliquidationpetition;Theexemptionandextensionof10USdollarbondsofR&FProperty'soverseaswholly-ownedsubsidiarieswereapproved;ChinaSouthCitysolditspropertyassets.Intermsofbondissuanceandmaturity,therealestateindustryissued101.169-billion-yuanbondsinJuly,andreceived-18.108billionyuanofnetfinancingthroughbondmarket.FromSeptember2020toJuly2022,thebondbalanceofthedomesticrealestateindustrydroppedby387.049billionyuan.Intermsofcrediteventsandspreads,1bonddefaultedand15bondswereextendedinJulyandthereisnoentityandbondcreditratingadjustment.AttheendofJuly,thebondcreditspread(median)ofrealestateindustryincreasedby9.69BPfromtheendofthepreviousmonth.Intermsofsummaryandprospect,thecommercialhousingsalesmarketrecoverywasunderpressure,thelandmarketcontinuedtobedepressedandthebondissuancemarketrecoveredinJuly.Industrybondcreditspreadsnarrowed,buttheTheheatoflandmarketandsalesmarketbothdeclined,theindustrybondcreditspreadsnarrowed——July2022realestateindustryobservationandbondmarketoperationreportAuthor:CaoXiaojingE-mail:research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明MonthlyIndustryObservationofChinaAug11th,2022riskpreventionofsomesmallandmedium-sizedhousingenterpriseswithhighdebtandconcentrateddebtmaturinginthesecondhalfoftheyearwasstillimportant.Inthefuture,morepoliciesto"guaranteedeliveryofbuildings"andsupportrigidandimproveddemandneedtobeimplementedurgently,whichwillhelpthemarketrestoreconfidencefromboththesupplyanddemandsides,andpromotethesalesofrealestateenterprisestorelievesomeliquiditypressure. 1/17请务必阅读正文后的免责声明2022年8月11日远东研究·行业研究目录一、行业运行动态...........................................................................................................................................................2(一)商品房量价.......................................................................................................................................................2(二)房企土地购置...................................................................................................................................................4(三)房地产贷款.......................................................................................................................................................6二、行业政策动态...........................................................................................................................................................6(一)中央政策动态...................................................................................................................................................6(二)地方政策动态.....................