2021年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：土地供应显著增加，行业债券信用利差逐步下降

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年4月9日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作 者：申学峰 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价方面：3月份30大中城市商品房成交面积显著高于2018和2019年同期水平，十大城市的商品库存去化周期大幅下降了2.45个月。百城新建住宅平均价格环比上涨了0.20%，一线城市房价上涨幅度继续高于二、三线城市。 土地市场方面：3月份300城市成交土地面积显著增加且高于过去四年同期平均水平。最近一个月土地供应虽增加，但一季度300城市成交土地楼面均价仍同比上涨了12%。 利率方面：3月份房贷利率继续上升，首套房和二套房贷款平均利率较2月份分别上升了0.02、0.01个百分点。新发行房地产信托平均利率下降了0.07个百分点。 政策方面：央行等部门加强对经营用途贷款违规流入房地产领域的监管，多个重点城市按照土地出让“两集中”政策的要求公布了2021年度的集中供地计划。 重点房企动态方面：金辉集团83.49亿元公司债券在上交所提交注册；3月底华夏幸福累计违约债务规模372.10亿元；协信远创首次出现债券违约。 债券市场运行动态方面：3月份，房地产行业共发行债券887.97亿元，到期债券1014.00亿元。共有7只债券发生违约，逾期本息156.71亿元。除已违约债券外，有26只债券被下调级别。行业债券信用利差（余额加权）月度下降了10.36bp。 展望未来，房地产行业整体的信用状况可能会提高，主要在重点城市经营的房企信用状况表现可能更好；房企的存量债券规模可能还会降低。未来需重点关注土地供应量及拿地成本的变动对房企盈利的影响。 相关研究报告： 1.《土地成交大幅减少，重点城市土地出让“两集中”——2021年2月房地产行业观察》，2021.3.9 2.《商品房成交热度不减，房企融资新规开始施行——2021年1月房地产行业观察》，2021.2.10 3.《政策频出规范住房租赁市场，一线城市楼市热度高——2020年11月房地产行业观察》，2020.12.11 4.《土地市场供求走低，“十四五”规划促住房消费——2020年10月房地产行业观察》，2020.11.16 5.《多地收紧调控稳房价，房企信用债频暴雷——2020年9月房地产行业观察》，2020.10.22 土地供应显著增加，行业债券信用利差逐步下降 ——2021年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China April 9th, 2021 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, in March, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities was significantly larger than in the same period of 2018 and 2019; the commercialized buildings’ destocking cycle in 10 major cities dropped significantly by 2.45 months; the average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” rose by 0.20% month-on-month, and the rate of rise in first-tier cities continued to be higher than in second- and third-tier cities. In the land market, the area of transacted land in 300 cities has increased sharply and was larger than the average of the past 4 years; while the supplies of new land projects have increased in the last month, the average floor price of land sold in “300 cities” in first quarter increased by 12% year-on-year. In terms of interest rate, mortgage interest rates continued to rise in March, and the average interest rates for first and second home loans increased by 0.02 and 0.01 percentage respectively from the previous month; the average interest rate of newly issued real estate trusts fell by 0.07 percent. In terms of policies, in March, the central bank and other departments have strengthened the supervision on the illegal flow of loans for business purposes into the real estate sector; a number of key cities announced their plans for centralized land supply for 2021 in accordance with the regulation that land sale should be centralized from two aspects. In terms of key real estate companies, Radiance Group Co., Ltd.'s RMB 8.349 billion corporate bonds were submitted for registration on the Shanghai Stock Exchange; at the end of March, China Fortune Land Co., Ltd.'s cumulative default debt rose to RMB 37.21 billion; Chongqing SINCERE Industrial Co., Ltd. had its first bond default. In terms of bond market operation, in March, the real estate industry has issued RMB 88.80 billion bonds, and RMB 101.4 billion bonds have matured; 7 bonds have defaulted with RMB 15.67 billion overdue principal and interest; except for defaulted bonds, 26 bonds have been downgraded; bond credit spreads of real estate industry has fell by 10.36bp monthly. Looking ahead, the overall credit status of the real estate industry companies may improve, and the real estate companies mainly operating in key cities may perform better in terms of credit status; the size of remaining bonds issued by real estate companies may continue to decrease. In the future, we need to focus on the impact of changes in land supply and land costs on the profitability of real estate companies. Land supplies has increased sharply, real estate industry bond credit spreads has been gradually decreasing -------February 2021 Real Estate Industry Observation and Bond Market Operation Report Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn oPsRrRpRnNsNmRqNrOwOmOaQdN7NtRmMtRqRfQoOqMlOmNrR7NmOmNxNnPyRNZoMsQ 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年4月9日 远东研究·行业研究 一、行业运行动态 （一）商品房量价 1. 一、二线城市商品房成交面积大幅增长 根据Wind数据，3月份30大中城市1商品房成交面积合计1829.58万平方米，环比增长86.30%（图1）。30城商品房成交面积在春节后的第一个月份快速上升，且高于2018年、2019年的3月水平，反映出大中城市商品房成交依然较活跃。 分城市类型看，一线城市商品房成交面积420.11万平方米，二线城市商品房成交面积915.78万平方米，三线城市商品房成交面积493.69万平方米（图1）。与2018年、2019年3月份的平均销售面积相比，一、二、三线城市分别增长50.58%、34.72%、9.75%。可以看出，核心大城市的购房需求增幅更大，原因可能是核心城市凭借经济优势更能吸引购房消费。 图1：30大中城市商品房成交面积（2015.01-2021.03，单位：万平方米） 资料来源：Wind，远东资信整理 2. 十大城市商品房库存显著下降 1 30大中城市包括一线城市（北京、上海、广州、深圳）、二线城市（