2021年5月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交有所降温，AAA级利差进一步下降

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年6月8日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作 者：申学峰 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：5月份30大中城市商品房成交面积环比下降1.83%，没有出现季节性上涨，显示市场需求有所降温。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨4.08%，延续平稳上涨趋势。 土地市场：5月份300城市成交土地面积与往年基本持平。受重点城市土拍价格上涨带动，300城市成交土地楼面均价环比大幅上涨了51%。 利率：5月份房贷利率继续上升，首套房和二套房贷款平均利率较4月份都上升了0.02个百分点。 政策：政治局出台三孩生育政策，央行货币政策报告重申“房住不炒”，各地严厉打击违规发放贷款流入房地产市场。 重点房企动态：阳光城、中南建设累计对外担保余额上升；广州合景控股拟发行不超过116亿元公司债；泰禾集团被深交所质询2020年年报。 债券发行与到期：5月份房地产行业共发行债券345.76亿元，偿还债券571.98亿元。AAA级主体发行规模占比为74.92%，优质主体占比不断上升。 信用事件与利差：5月份新增违约债券5只，合计逾期本息约66亿元。分别有1个主体和2只债券的信用级别被下调。房地产行业AAA级、AA+级信用利差（中位数）分别下降了5.63bp、9.76bp，而AA-级上升了3.78bp，高等级和低等级进一步分化。 展望未来，房地产行业整体的信用状况可能还会有所提高，但需关注部分尚未主动降负债、经营风格较激进的房企的风险。优质主体与高风险主体之间的债券信用利差可能还会扩大。房地产行业存量债券规模可能会企稳回升。 相关研究报告： 1.《住宅交易价格管控趋严，AA级债券信用利差上升——2021年4月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.5.12 2.《土地供应显著增加，行业债券信用利差逐步下降——2021年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.4.9 3.《土地成交大幅减少，重点城市土地出让“两集中”——2021年2月房地产行业观察》，2021.3.9 4.《商品房成交热度不减，房企融资新规开始施行——2021年1月房地产行业观察》，2021.2.10 商品房成交有所降温，AAA级利差进一步下降 ——2021年5月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China June 8th, 2021 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, in May, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has declined by 1.83% month-on-month, and there was no seasonal increase, indicating that market demand has cooled; the average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has risen by 4.08% year-on-year, continuing a steady upward trend. In the land market, in May, the area of transacted land in “300 cities” was basically the same as in previous years; driven by the increasing prices of land sold in key cities, the average floor price of land sold in “300 cities” has risen sharply by 51% month-on-month. In terms of interest rate, mortgage interest rates continued to rise in May, and the average interest rates for first and second home loans increased by 0.02 percentage respectively from the previous month. In terms of policies, the Political Bureau promulgated the three-child policy, the central bank’s monetary policy report reiterated that housing is not for speculation, and local governments severely cracked down on the inflow of illegal loans into the real estate market. In terms of key real estate companies, the cumulative external guarantees of Yango Group and Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group have increased; Guangzhou Hejing Holdings Limited intended to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 11.6 billion yuan; Tahoe Group was questioned by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for its 2020 annual report. In terms of bond issuance and maturity, in May, the real estate industry has issued 34.576 billion yuan bonds and repaid 57.198 billion yuan bonds; the issuance scale of AAA-level entities accounted for 74.92%, and the proportion of high-quality entities continued to increase. In terms of credit events and spreads, in May, 5 bonds have defaulted with 6.6 billion yuan overdue principal and interest; one corporate and two bonds have been downgraded; the AAA’s and AA+’s credit spreads have decreased by 5.63bp and 9.76bp, while the AA-’s have risen by 3.78bp, showing that the high-grade and low-grade were further differentiated. Looking ahead, the overall credit status of the real estate industry companies may still improve, but we need to pay attention to the risks of some real estate companies that have not actively reduced their debts yet and have more aggressive Commercialized building sales have cooled down, and the spreads of AAA bonds have further decreased -------April 2021 Real Estate Industry Observation and Bond Market Operation Report Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 June 8th, 2021 Monthly Industry Observation of China business operations; the bond credit spreads between high-quality entities and high-risk entities may continue to widen; the size of remaining bonds issued by real estate companies may stabilize and rise. 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年6月8日 远东研究·行业研究 一、行业运行动态 （一）商品房量价 1. 30大中城市商品房成交面积小幅下降 根据Wind数据，5月份30大中城市1商品房成交面积合计1744.44万平方米，环比下降1.83%（图1）。而过去10年间5月份平均环比上涨7.31%，与历史同期平均水平相比，今年5月份的商品房成交没有出现季节性上涨，商品房成交有所降温。分城市类型看，一线城市商品房成交面积环比下降19.03%，二线城市环比下降0.14%，而三线城市环比上涨8.27%。其中一线城市的成交量连续两个月出现了下降，近期的调控政策一定程度抑制了购房需求。 图1：30大中城市商品房成交面积（2011-2021，单位：万平方米） 资料来源：Wind，远东资