请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2022年4月11日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：3月份30大中城市商品房成交面积同比减少47.33%，成交量仍明显低于往年同期。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨1.72%，涨幅较上月回落0.17个百分点。 房地产贷款：3月份103个监测城市的首套房贷平均利率为5.34%，二套房贷平均利率为5.60%，分别较上月下降13个、15个BP。房贷平均放款周期为34天，较上月缩短4天。 政策：“两会”期间政府工作报告提出要因城施策促进房地产业良性循环和健康发展，财政部负责人表示新一轮房产税改革试点暂缓，多个金融相关部委密集表态强调防范化解房地产金融风险。多个城市放宽购房政策以促进住房消费，部分地区出台措施纾解房企困难。 重点房企：3月份百强房企销售操盘金额同比下降52.7%；多家房企获得银行并购融资额度；多家房企对外新增提供担保，且担保余额占净资产比例偏高。 债券发行与到期：3月份房地产行业共发行债券887.37亿元，通过债市净融资-127.35亿元。2020年9月至2022年3月，国内房地产行业债券存量规模压降了约3349.58亿元。 信用事件与利差：3月份有9只债券违约、3只债券展期。无主体和债券的信用级别被下调。3月末兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）较2月末上升8.06BP，AA级的信用利差向AAA、AA+级靠拢。 总结与展望：商品房销售减少影响了房企回款进度，一些房企资金链承受了很大压力。尽管近期购房政策一直在放宽，但当前购房者有观望情绪，且疫情反复削弱了居民购房能力，相关政策的效果可能有限。因此对于部分存量项目积压、负债较高的房企来说，未来销售回款可能仍面临需求端的压力。销售回款对现金流支撑有限的情况下，如果房企又面临债务的集中到期，就仍可能出现资金链断裂。 相关研究报告： 1.《2022年2月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交面积下降，4家主体信用级别下调》，2022.3.10 2.《2022年1月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交面积下降，房企债市融资持续净流出》，2021.2.16 3.《2021年12月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：个人住房贷款发放加快，9家主体信用级别下调》，2021.01.12 商品房成交面积下滑，房企债券融资继续净流出 ——2022年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China April 11th, 2022 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has declined by 47.33% year-on-year in March, which was still significantly lower than in the same period of previous years. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has increased by 1.72% month-on-month, and the increase was down 0.17 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of real estate loans, the average interest rate of first-home loans in “103 cities” was 5.34% in March, and the average interest rate of second-home loans was 5.60%, down 13BP and 15 BP from the previous month respectively. The average lending cycle in “103 cities” is 34 days, 4 days shorter than the previous month. In terms of policies, the government work report proposed to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry by implementing policies based on the city. The Ministry of Finance said that the new round of real estate tax reform pilots has been suspended. A number of financial-related ministries and commissions have intensively expressed their emphasis on preventing and resolving real estate financial risks. Several cities have relaxed home purchase policies to boost housing consumption. Some areas have introduced measures to ease the difficulties of real estate companies. In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies in March has decreased by 52.7% year-on-year. A number of real estate companies have obtained bank M&A financing quotas. A number of real estate companies have provided new guarantees, and the balance of guarantees accounts for a relatively high proportion of net assets. In terms of bond issuance and maturity, the real estate industry has issued 88.74 billion yuan bonds in March, and has received -12.74 billion yuan of net financing through bond market. From September 2020 to March 2022, the bond balance of the domestic real estate industry has dropped by about 334.95 billion yuan. In terms of credit events and spreads, 9 bonds have defaulted and 3 bonds have been rolled over in March. No credit ratings for entities and bonds were downgraded. At the end of March, the bond credit spread (median) of real estate industry has increased by 8.06BP compared with the end of February, and the credit spreads of AA grades have moved closer to AAA and AA+ grades. Looking ahead, the reduction in the sales of commercialized buildings has affected the progress of real estate companies in their payment collection, and some companies’ capital chains have come under great pressure. Although the housing purchase policy has been relaxed recently, the current home buyers are in a wait-and-see mood, and the epidemic has repeatedly The sales of commercialized buildings declined, and the bond financing of real estate companies continued to have a net outflow ——March 2022 real estate industry observation and bond market operation report Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China April 11th, 2022 weakened the ability of residents to buy a house, the effect of the relevant policies may be limited. Therefore, for some real estate companies with a backlog of