2023年5月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房需求转弱，行业投资继续下降

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2023年6月20日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 梅芷菁 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：5月份30大中城市商品房成交面积环比上升3.74%，同比上升24.50%，但与过去10年均值水平相比仍下降24.12%；结合全国商品房销售数据看，30大中城市销售表现要好于全国平均水平。百城新建住宅平均价格环比下跌0.01%，同比下跌0.11%，百城新建住宅价格趋于稳定。 新开工面积：5月全国房屋新开工面积为8503万m2，同比下降28.48%，降幅较2022年全年39.40%的跌幅收窄。与历史数据相比，新开工面积仍处低位。 政策：央行货币政策执行报告提出要因城施策，支持刚性和改善性住房需求，推动行业重组并购，有效防范化解优质头部房企风险，改善资产负债状况。地方层面，多个城市逐步放松限购，通过上调贷款额度、降低首付比例、放宽贷款和提取条件等措施促进住房公积金购房，通过发放购房补贴促进改善性需求。 重点房企：5月份TOP100房企销售总额同比增长6.7%；荣盛发展为旗下公司新增34.39亿元担保，同时筹划增发股份购买资产；蓝光发展因股价连续20日低于1元从A股退市，此外数家房企也即将面值退市。 债券发行与到期：5月份房地产行业共发行债券329.03亿元，偿还债券604.88亿元，通过债市净融资-275.86亿元。 信用事件与级别调整：5月份新增5只债券违约，11只债券展期。有1家房地产企业信用级别被上调。 总结与展望：5月份房地产市场交易行情复苏放缓，尽管近期各地不断放松限购、鼓励住房公积金贷款、发放购房补贴，楼市促进政策不断加码，但未能扭转房地产需求下行趋势。在需求走弱背景下，房地产企业投资新项目也较为谨慎，行业债务融资规模下降。近日数家A股上市房企股价触发面值退市，反映出房企内部人士对经营前景预期悲观，相关企业债券偿付前景不佳，已逾期债券预计回收率很低。 相关研究报告： 1. 《商品房销售复苏放缓，各线城市分化加剧——2023年4月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.05.22 2. 《商品房销售明显复苏，境内债发行持续回温——2023年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.04.23 3. 《商品房销售有所复苏，债券发行继续回温——2023年2月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.03.20 商品房需求转弱，行业投资继续下降 ——2023年5月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China June 20th, 2023 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has increased by 3.74% month-on-month and 24.50% year-on-year in May, but it is still down 24.12% compared with the average level of the past 10 years. Combined with the national commercialized buildings sales data, the sales performance of 30 large and medium-sized cities is better than the national average. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has decreased by 0.01% month-on-month and 0.11% year-on-year, which tended to be stable. In terms of real estate started, the national floor space of real estate started in May was 85.03 million m², down 28.48% year-on-year, which is narrower than the 39.40% decline in the whole year of 2022. Compared with historical data, the floor space of real estate started is still low. In terms of policies, the central bank's monetary policy implementation report proposed that the city should implement policies to support rigid and improved housing demand, promote industry restructuring and mergers & acquisitions, effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality head real estate companies, and improve the balance sheet situation. At the local level, a number of cities have gradually relaxed purchase restrictions, promoted housing provident fund purchases by raising the loan limit, reducing the down payment ratio, relaxing loans and withdrawal conditions, and promoted improved demand by issuing house purchase subsidies. In terms of key real estate companies, the total sales of TOP100 housing companies in May increased by 6.7% year-on-year. Risesun added 3.439 billion yuan of guarantees for its subsidiaries, and planned to issue additional shares to purchase assets. Languang development was delisted from A shares because its stock price was below 1 yuan for 20 consecutive days, and several real estate companies are also about to delist from the market. In terms of bond issuance and maturity, the real estate industry issued a total of 32.903 billion yuan bonds, repaid 60.488 billion yuan bonds in May, and net financing through the bond market was -27.586 billion yuan. In terms of credit events and credit rating adjustment, 5 bonds defaulted and 11 rolled over in May. One real estate company had its credit rating upgraded. Looking ahead, the recovery of real estate market slowed down in May, although the recent loosening of purchase restrictions, encouraging housing provident fund loans, the issuance of housing subsidies, and the housing market promotion policies Demand for commercialized buildings weakened and investment of the industry continued to decline ——May 2023 real estate industry observation and bond market operation report Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China June 20th, 2023 continued to increase, but failed to reverse the downward trend of real estate demand. In the context of weakening demand, real estate companies are also more cautious in investing in new projects, and the amount of debt financing in the industry has declined. Recently, the share prices of several A-share listed real estate companies t