2021年4月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：住宅交易价格管控趋严，AA级债券信用利差上升

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年5月12日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作 者：申学峰 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价方面：4月份30大中城市商品房成交面积环比季节性下降4.90%，但降幅小于过去10年均值，显示出市场需求热度依旧不减。百城新建住宅平均价格环比上涨0.23%。 土地市场方面：4月份300城市成交土地面积高于过去四年同期平均水平。成交土地楼面均价同比上涨了14%，其中住宅用地同比大幅上涨了34%。 利率方面：4月份房贷利率继续上升，首套房和二套房贷款平均利率较3月份分别上升了0.03、0.02个百分点。新发行房地产信托平均利率下降了0.97个百分点。 政策方面：发改委印发《2021年新型城镇化和城乡融合发展重点任务》，政治局会议对“学区房价格”等问题作出指示，多个城市加强对房地产价格的备案管控。 重点房企动态方面：上海金茂50亿元中期票据获准注册；首创置业拟发行50亿元境内公司债；滨江集团累计为子公司提供担保达187.97亿元。 债券市场运行动态方面：4月份房地产行业共发行债券796.72亿元，到期债券617.09亿元。共有1只债券发生违约，逾期本息21.70亿元。除已违约案例外，分别有1个主体和1只债券的信用级别被下调。行业债券信用利差（余额加权）上升了5.25bp，其中AA级上升了30.94bp。 展望未来，房地产行业整体的信用状况可能会提高，但低财务杠杆房企与高财务杠杆房企之间的信用利差可能会扩大。房企的存量债券规模可能还会有所下降。未来需持续关注城市更新规模、土地供应量及拿地成本的变动对房企盈利的影响。 相关研究报告： 1.《土地供应显著增加，行业债券信用利差逐步下降——2021年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.4.9 2.《土地成交大幅减少，重点城市土地出让“两集中”——2021年2月房地产行业观察》，2021.3.9 3.《商品房成交热度不减，房企融资新规开始施行——2021年1月房地产行业观察》，2021.2.10 4.《政策频出规范住房租赁市场，一线城市楼市热度高——2020年11月房地产行业观察》，2020.12.11 5.《土地市场供求走低，“十四五”规划促住房消费——2020年10月房地产行业观察》，2020.11.16 住宅交易价格管控趋严，AA级债券信用利差上升 ——2021年4月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China May 12th, 2021 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, in April, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has declined seasonally by 4.90% month-on-month, but the decline is smaller than the average of past 10 years, showing that the market demand remained hot; the average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has risen by 0.23% month-on-month. In the land market, in April, the area of transacted land in “300 cities” was larger than the average of the past 4 years; the average floor price of land sold in “300 cities” has risen by 14% year-on-year, and average floor price of residential land has risen sharply by 34% year-on-year. In terms of interest rate, mortgage interest rates continued to rise in April, and the average interest rates for first and second home loans increased by 0.03 and 0.02 percentage respectively from the previous month; the average interest rate of newly issued real estate trusts fell by 0.97 percent. In terms of policies, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Key Tasks for New Urbanization and Urban-Rural Integration Development in 2021"; the Political Bureau meeting gave instructions on "school district housing prices" and other issues; many cities have strengthened the control on real estate transaction prices. In terms of key real estate companies, Shanghai Jinmao Investment Management Group's RMB 5 billion medium-term notes were approved for registration; Beijing Capital Land Ltd. intends to issue RMB 5 billion corporate bonds; Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group has provided a total of RMB 18.80 billion in guarantees for subsidiaries. In terms of bond market operation, in April, the real estate industry has issued RMB 79.67 billion bonds, and RMB 61.71 billion bonds have matured; one bond have defaulted with RMB 2.17 billion overdue principal and interest; except for defaulted cases, one corporate and one bond has been downgraded; bond credit spreads of real estate industry have increased by 5.25bp monthly, and AA bonds credit spreads has increased by 30.94bp. Looking ahead, the overall credit status of the real estate industry companies may improve, and the credit spread between low-financially leveraged and high-financially leveraged real estate companies may widen; the size of remaining bonds issued by real estate companies may decrease. In the future, we need to focus on the impact of changes in city renovation, land supply and land costs on the profitability of real estate companies. The price control of residential transactions has become stricter, and the credit spread of AA bonds has risen -------April 2021 Real Estate Industry Observation and Bond Market Operation Report Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn oPoNtQqNsRqPsRtNsOqOtMbR9R6MpNqQnPpOeRnNmRkPnMmO6MpOvNMYoNsNMYqMsN 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年5月12日 远东研究·行业研究 一、行业运行动态 （一）商品房量价 1. 30大中城市商品房成交面积小幅下降 根据Wind数据，4月份30大中城市1商品房成交面积合计1744.61万平方米，环比下降4.90%（图1）。而过去10年间4月份的平均环比降幅为5.36%，与历史同期平均水平相比，今年4月份的商品房成交环比降幅更小，商品房成交依旧保持了热度。分城市类型看，一线城市商品房成交面积环比下降13.79%，二线城市环比下降0.40%，三线城市环比下降5.58%。4月份一线城市如深圳、上海的楼市成交量受调控政策影响出现了较为明显的下降。 图1：30大中城市商品房成交面积（2014.01-2021.04，单位：万平方米） 资料来源：Wind，远东资信整理 2. 十大城市商品房库存量小幅增加 根据Wind数据，4月末十大城市2商品房可售面积合计8248.53万平方米，环比增加0.35%（图2）。十大城市商品房库存出现了小幅上升，库存的去化速度也略有下降。但从去年12月至今，十大城市的商品房去化周期3已大幅下降了2.71个月，整体的去库仍非常明显。 1 30大中城市包括一线城市（北京、上海、广州、深圳）、二线城市（天津、成都、杭州、