钢矿周报：供给逐步收缩，螺纹有望偏强震荡，弱供需下，铁矿宽幅震荡

钢矿周报供给逐步收缩，螺纹有望偏强震荡弱供需下，铁矿宽幅震荡黑色研究团队2021年10月11日 钢材：供给逐步收缩，螺纹有望偏强震荡核心要点：供给：国庆期间限产有所放松，钢企开工率回升，螺纹产量增加，但压减粗钢、限电、采暖季等多重背景下，供应预计进一步趋紧；需求：节假期间五大材表观消费量回落，十月旺季需求回补预期仍在；库存：假期期间五大材整体小幅累库；利润：螺纹利润再度冲高，热卷利润高位震荡；价差：卷螺主力基差走强，螺纹热卷1-5价差有所收敛综合看：国庆节假期间，多地现货价格不同程度上涨，钢材限产有所放松。但在压减粗钢、限电等多重背景下，供给依然延续偏紧格局，其中螺纹限产力度更强，对钢价有所支撑。同时十月旺季需求有回暖预期，近期多地房贷有所放松、下半年基建不宜悲观。短期看，供减需增背景下，螺纹有望偏强震荡，且相对强于热卷。操作建议：01合约多单持有，可关注RB1-5反套机会。关注变量：限产落地情况，旺季需求是否放量 铁矿：弱供需，短期宽幅震荡，可区间操作，关注I1-5正套机会核心要点：从供给来看，铁矿最新一期澳巴发运量环比降低，到港量回升，疏港量走高；需求端，钢企高炉开工率小幅回升，日均铁水产量小幅反弹，铁矿需求小幅修复，拉动矿价反弹。但铁矿港口库存持续高位且进一步累增。铁矿现价止跌回升，主力期价低位反弹，基差走弱，1-5价差仍处低位。在现实供需较弱背景下，矿价依然承压，操作建议：区间操作，可关注I1-5正套机会。关注变量：钢企限产情况 钢材 价格：螺纹多地现货价格冲高30003500400045005000550060006500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海201720182019202020212500300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津2017201820192020202130003500400045005000550060006500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州2017201820192020202125003000350040004500500055006000元/吨价格:方坯:Q235:唐山20172018201920202021 价格：热卷现货价格稳中有升2800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津201720182019202020212800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海201720182019202020212800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州2017201820192020202115002000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨唐山钢坯价格指数201620172018201920202021 价格：盘螺、中板、高线价格上调，冷轧持稳300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:盘螺:Ф8-10:中天:杭州201620172018201920202021300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:中板:普20mm:上海201720182019202020213000350040004500500055006000650070007500元/吨价格:冷轧板卷:1.0mm:上海20172018201920202021300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:高线:6.5:HPB300:杭州20172018201920202021 价格：废钢价格维持稳定，水泥价格继续冲高10001500200025003000350040004500元/吨废钢价格2016201720182019202020217090110130150170190210230点水泥价格指数:全国201620172018201920202021 价格：螺纹和热卷主力合约偏强震荡2000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨螺纹钢05合约季节性走势图RB1705RB1805RB1905RB2005RB2105RB220520002500300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨热卷01合约季节性走势图HC1701HC1801HC1901HC2001HC2101HC220115002000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨螺纹钢01合约季节性走势图RB1701RB1801RB1901RB2001RB2101RB2201200030004000500060007000元/吨热卷05合约季节性走势图HC1705HC1805HC1905HC2005HC2105HC2205 供给：国庆期间限产放松，全国钢厂开工率回升40455055606570758085%全国高炉开工率2016201720182019202020210102030405060708090100%唐山钢厂:高炉开工率20162017201820192020202130405060708090100%唐山钢厂:产能利用率201620172018201920202021 供给：五大材产量环比增加，其中螺增卷降8008509009501000105011001150万吨五大品种钢材产量20172018201920202021200250300350400450螺纹钢周度产量201620172018201920202021260270280290300310320330340350360热卷周度产量201620172018201920202021 需求：节假期间五大材表观需求量回落200400600800100012001400万吨五大品种钢材表观需求20172018201920202021-200-1000100200300400500600螺纹钢表观需求量201620172018201920202021200220240260280300320340360380热卷周度表观消费量201620172018201920202021 需求：房地产增速降低但仍有韧性020004000600080001000016/01/0317/01/0318/01/0319/01/0320/01/0321/01/03100大中城市成交土地建筑面积100大中城市:成交土地规划建筑面积:当周值4 per. Mov. Avg. (100大中城市:成交土地规划建筑面积:当周值)万平方米0200400600800100016/01/0317/01/0318/01/0319/01/0320/01/0321/01/0330大中城市商品房成交面积30大中城市:商品房成交面积:当周值4 per. Mov. Avg. (30大中城市:商品房成交面积:当周值)万平方米-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00房地产各项增速房屋施工面积:累计同比%房屋新开工面积:累计同比%房屋竣工面积:累计同比%商品房销售面积:累计同比% 库存：五大材库存转降为增050010001500200025003000350040004500万吨五大品种钢材总库存2017201820192020202105001000150020002500螺纹钢总库存2016201720182019202020210100200300400500600700热卷总库存201620172018201920202021020406080100120140万吨库存:钢坯:唐山:合计2018201920202021 利润：螺纹利润高位，热卷利润冲高回落-5000500100015002000万吨螺纹钢长流程钢厂利润-400-20002004006008001000120014001600元/吨热卷生产利润20172018201920202021 基差：螺纹热卷基差走强-500-300-1001003005007009001100元/吨螺纹钢01合约基差：上海现货RB1701RB1801RB1901RB2001RB2101RB2201-250-50150350550元/吨热卷01合约基差：上海现货HC1701HC1801HC1901HC2001HC2101HC2201-35015065011501650元/吨螺纹05合约基差：上海现货RB1605RB1705RB1805RB1905RB2005RB2105RB2205-300-100100300500700元/吨热卷05合约基差：上海现货HC1605HC1705HC1805HC1905HC2005HC2105HC2205 月差：卷螺1-5价差高位，可关注反套-150-75075150225300375450525600元/吨螺纹钢跨期价差：RB01-RB05RB1701-RB1705RB1801-RB1805RB1901-RB1905RB2001-RB2005RB2101-RB2105RB2201-RB2205-300-200-1000100200300400500600元/吨01卷螺价差HC-RB1501HC-RB1601HC-RB1701HC-RB1801HC-RB1901HC-RB2001HC-RB2101HC-RB2201-150-75075150225300375450元/吨热卷跨期价差：HC01-HC05HC1701-HC1705HC1801-HC1805HC1901-HC1905HC2001-HC2005HC2101-HC2105HC2201-HC2205 铁矿 价格：铁矿绝对价格回升4090140190240290美元/吨铁矿石价格指数:62%Fe:CFR中国北方20162017201820192020202120040060080010001200140016001800元/吨车板价:青岛港:澳大利亚:金布巴粉:61%201620172018201920202021450650850105012501450165018502050元/吨车板价:日照港:澳大利亚:卡拉拉精粉:65%201620172018201920202021400600800100012001400160018002000元/吨车板价:青岛港:巴西:混合粉BRBF:62.5%201620172018201920202021 价格：铁矿主力期价低位反弹300500700900110013001500元/吨铁矿石09合约季节性走势图I1709I1809I1909I2009I21093004005006007008009001000110012001300元/吨铁矿石01合约季节性走势图I1701I1801I1901I2001I2101I2201300500700900110013001500元/吨铁矿石05合约季节性走势图I1705I1805I1905I2005I2105I2205 供给：巴西铁矿发货量降低，澳洲铁矿发货量降低，整体宽松偏中性20030040050060070080090010001100万吨铁矿石发货量—巴西201620172018201920202021100012001400160018002000220024002600万吨铁矿石发货量—澳洲+巴西201620172018201920202021020040060080010001200140016001800万吨铁矿石发货量—澳洲201620172018201920202021 港口：到港量增加，疏港量提高，港口铁