钢矿周报：螺纹，供需双弱，驱动不强，宽幅震荡，铁矿，库存再度累积，向上突破乏力，面临回吐

钢矿周报 螺纹：供需双弱，驱动不强，宽幅震荡 铁矿：库存再度累积，向上突破乏力，面临回吐 黑色研究团队 2022年01月17日 钢材：供需双弱，驱动不强，宽幅震荡 核心要点： 供给：五大产量环比增加，但增幅从3%下降至1%，其中螺纹同样环比增加1% 需求：五大材周消费量再度环比增加，其中螺纹表需由增转降，降幅达2% 库存：五大材整体小幅累库，其中冬储进程开启，厂库向社库转移 利润：螺纹和热卷高炉利润回落至中性水平，华东电炉利润小幅亏损 价差：螺纹热卷主力基差大幅走弱，螺纹和热卷5-10价差震荡 综合看：上周，上半周盘面延续偏强震荡运行，下半周上方受到阻力高位震荡。供给端，复产进程继续但预计力度减持，且目前高炉利润已高位回落至中性水平，电炉面临亏损。需求端，表观需求量环比小幅波动，节前维持弱势运行。库存整体小幅累库，呈现上游向中游传输的正金字塔型结构。供需整体依然双弱，前期原料端行情支撑价格。目前驱动不强，延续宽幅震荡。 风险点：钢厂复工进程 mWmVjZdWnWaXmVpPyQpOnN8OaO8OpNqQnPpNfQnNqRkPmNyQ9PnMoQxNpMxPxNoPwP铁矿：库存再度累积，向上突破乏力，下周面临回吐 核心要点： 本周最新一期澳巴海外发运环比减少560.5万吨，其中澳洲环比减少407万吨，巴西环比减少153.5万吨，到港量减少72.4万吨，疏港量环比减少5.48万吨。需求端，钢企复产持续，日均铁水产量连续三周回升至213.69万吨。铁矿港口库存持续高位，共计15697.19万吨，环比小幅累库92.09万吨。 上周铁矿主力盘面先扬后抑。钢厂复产，需求持续回升。钢厂阶段性补库下，港口库存连续四周高位环比波动，再度累至十二月中旬的库存水平。目前价位再向上突破缺乏动力，下周预计面临连续上涨后的回吐。 关注变量：钢厂复产 钢材 价格：螺纹多地现货价格基本持稳 30003500400045005000550060006500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海2017201820192020202120222500300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津2017201820202021202230003500400045005000550060006500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州20172018201920202021202225003000350040004500500055006000元/吨价格:方坯:Q235:唐山201720182019202020212022 价格：热卷现货价格窄幅震荡 2800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津2017201820192020202120222800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海201720182020202120222800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州20172018201920202021202215002000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨唐山钢坯价格指数201720182019202020212022 价格：盘螺、中板、高线、冷轧小幅下调 300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:盘螺:Ф8-10:中天:杭州201720182019202020212022300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格20mm:上海201720182020202120223000350040004500500055006000650070007500元/吨价格:冷轧板卷:1.0mm:上海201720182019202020212022300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:高线:6.5:HPB300:杭州201720182019202020212022 价格：废钢价格维稳，水泥价格下行 10001500200025003000350040004500元/吨废钢价格2017201820192020202120227090110130150170190210230点水泥价格指数全国201720182020202120221000150020002500300035004000元/吨市场价(不含税):废钢:6-8mm:张家港20172018201920202021202280100120140160180200220240点水泥价格指数:华东201720182019202020212022 价格：螺纹和热卷主力合约偏强震荡 2000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨螺纹钢05合约季节性走势图RB1805RB1905RB2005RB2105RB2205200030004000500060007000元/吨热卷05合约季节性走势图HC1805HC1905HC2005HC2105HC220520002500300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨热卷10合约季节性走势图HC1810HC1910HC2010HC2110HC22102000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨螺纹钢10合约季节性走势图RB1810RB1910RB2010RB2110RB2210 供给：全国钢厂开工率低位运行，唐山地区环比大幅增加404550556065707580%全国高炉开工率2017201820192020202120220102030405060708090100%唐山钢厂高炉开工率2017201820202021202230405060708090100%唐山钢厂:产能利用率201720182019202020212022 供给：五大材产量环比增加，螺卷双增 8008509009501000105011001150万吨五大品种钢材产量201720182019202020212022200250300350400450螺纹钢周度产量20172018202020212022250270290310330350370热卷周度产量201720182019202020212022 需求：五大材表观需求量环比回升，螺降卷增 200400600800100012001400万吨五大品种钢材表观需求201720182019202020212022-200-1000100200300400500600螺纹钢表观需求量20172018202020212022200220240260280300320340360380热卷周度表观消费量201720182019202020212022 需求：房地产维持负增速，商品房成交面积周环比回落0200040006000800010000120001400016/01/0317/01/0318/01/0319/01/0320/01/0321/01/03100大中城市成交土地建筑面积100大中城市:成交土地规划建筑面积:当周值4 per. Mov. Avg. (100大中城市:成交土地规划建筑面积:当周值)万平方米0200400600800100030大中城市商品房成交面积Wi nd 中国房地产交易数据:30大中城市30大中城市:商品...4 per. Mov. Avg. (Wi nd 中国房地产交易数据:30大中城市...万平方米-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00房地产各项增速房屋施工面积:累计同比%房屋新开工面积:累计同比%房屋竣工面积:累计同比%商品房销售面积:累计同比% 库存：五大材整体累库 10001500200025003000350040004500万吨五大品种钢材总库存201720182019202020212022400900140019002400螺纹钢总库存20172018202020212022200250300350400450500550600热卷总库存201720182019202020212022020406080100120140万吨库存:钢坯:唐山:合计201720182019202020212022 利润：高炉即期利润继续回落，华东电炉利润小幅亏损-5000500100015002000元/吨螺纹钢长流程钢厂利润201720182019202020212022-400-20002004006008001000120014001600元/吨热卷生产利润20172018202020212022-500050010001500200001000200030004000500060007000华东电炉螺纹钢生产利润华东螺纹钢利润上海螺纹钢价格华东电炉成本元/吨元/吨-1000-50005001000150001000200030004000500060007000华北电炉螺纹钢生产利润华北螺纹钢利润天津螺纹钢价格华北电炉成本元/吨元/吨 基差：螺纹热卷主力基差大幅走弱 -35015065011501650元/吨螺纹05合约基差：上海现货RB1605RB1705RB1805RB1905RB2005RB2105RB2205-300-100100300500700元/吨热卷05合约基差：上海现货HC1605HC1805HC1905HC2005HC2205-300-150015030045060075090010501200135015001650元/吨螺纹钢10合约基差：上海HRB400 20mmRB1710RB1810RB1910RB2010RB2110RB2210-200-10001002003004005006007008009001000元/吨热卷10合约基差：上海Q235B 4.75mmHC1710HC1810HC1910HC2010HC2110HC2210 月差：螺纹热卷价差震荡 -200-1000100200300400500元/吨螺纹钢跨期价差：RB05-RB10RB1705-RB1710RB1805-RB1810RB1905-RB1910RB2005-RB2010RB2105-RB2110RB2205-RB2210-150-100-50050100150200250300350400450500元/吨热卷跨期价差：HC05-HC10HC1705-HC1710HC1805-HC1810HC1905-HC1910HC2005-HC2010HC2105-HC2110HC2205-HC2210-200-1000100200300400500元/吨05卷螺价差HC-RB1705HC-RB1805HC-RB1905HC-RB2005HC-RB2105HC-RB2205 铁矿 价格：内外铁矿绝对价格上涨 4090140190240290美元/吨铁矿石价格指数:62%Fe:CFR中国北方20172018201920202021202220040060080010001200140016001800元/吨车板价:青岛港澳大利亚:金布巴粉:61%20172018202020212022450650850105012501450165018502050元/吨车板价:日照港:澳大利亚:卡拉拉精粉:65%202020212022200400600800100012001400160018002000元/吨车板价:青岛港:巴西:混合粉BRBF:62.5%20172018201920