钢矿周报：钢材供需双降，受低估值和高基差保护，低位震荡 铁矿需求再度走弱，库存持续累增，弱势运行

钢矿周报钢材供需双降，受低估值和高基差保护，低位震荡铁矿需求再度走弱，库存持续累增，弱势运行黑色研究团队2021年11月08日 钢材：供需双降，受低估值和高基差保护，低位震荡核心要点：供给：钢企开工率大幅走低，五大材产量环比减少，采暖季攻坚战下供应预计维持偏紧；需求：五大材表观消费量大幅回落，低于往年同期水平；库存：五大材整体由增转降，其中螺纹库存整体去化但上下传导相对受阻；利润：螺纹和热卷利润持续回落；价差：螺纹热卷主力基差大幅走强，为历史极值，螺纹和热卷1-5价差震荡收敛综合看：上周成材期价下挫，多地现货价格不同程度补跌。纵观，螺纹表观需求量环比下降，仍处同期低位，此外受疫情和本周寒潮影响，或再度拖累；但在政策管控下，钢企产能利用率环比大幅走低。并且在秋冬季采暖季攻坚战影响下，供给依然偏紧。因此，产业层面目前面临供需双降，驱动不强，但受低估值和高基差保护，向下空间不大，短期低位震荡。可关注基差收敛机会。关注变量：限产情况，终端房地产需求 铁矿：需求再度走弱，港口和钢厂库存持续累增，弱势运行核心要点：从供给来看，铁矿最新一期澳巴发运量环比降低，到港量降低，疏港量微降。需求端，钢企日均铁水产量大幅降低，仅为204.89万吨，再创年内新低，部分钢厂现货商面临亏损，叠加政策管控下，使得铁矿需求再度走弱。铁矿港口库存持续高位，钢材库存同样累增。上周铁矿现价走低，主力期价下挫，主力01基差走弱，1-5价差收敛，几近平水。在现实供需较弱背景下，矿价依然承压，弱势运行，但钢厂补库动作下或有阶段性反弹。操作建议：区间操作，逢高沽空。关注变量：钢企限产情况 钢材 价格：螺纹多地现货价格高位回落30003500400045005000550060006500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海201720182019202020212500300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津2017201820192020202130003500400045005000550060006500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州2017201820192020202125003000350040004500500055006000元/吨价格:方坯:Q235:唐山20172018201920202021 价格：热卷现货价格下调2800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津201720182019202020212800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海201720182019202020212800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州2017201820192020202115002000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨唐山钢坯价格指数201620172018201920202021 价格：盘螺、中板、高线、冷轧现价均回落300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:盘螺:Ф8-10:中天:杭州201620172018201920202021300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:中板:普20mm:上海201720182019202020213000350040004500500055006000650070007500元/吨价格:冷轧板卷:1.0mm:上海20172018201920202021300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:高线:6.5:HPB300:杭州20172018201920202021 价格：废钢价格小幅下调，水泥价格稳中有降10001500200025003000350040004500元/吨废钢价格2016201720182019202020217090110130150170190210230点水泥价格指数:全国201620172018201920202021 价格：螺纹和热卷主力合约下挫2000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨螺纹钢05合约季节性走势图RB1705RB1805RB1905RB2005RB2105RB220520002500300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨热卷01合约季节性走势图HC1701HC1801HC1901HC2001HC2101HC220115002000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨螺纹钢01合约季节性走势图RB1701RB1801RB1901RB2001RB2101RB2201200030004000500060007000元/吨热卷05合约季节性走势图HC1705HC1805HC1905HC2005HC2105HC2205 供给：全国钢厂开工率再度走低40455055606570758085%全国高炉开工率2016201720182019202020210102030405060708090100%唐山钢厂:高炉开工率20162017201820192020202130405060708090100%唐山钢厂:产能利用率201620172018201920202021 供给：五大材产量环比降低，卷增螺降8008509009501000105011001150万吨五大品种钢材产量20172018201920202021200250300350400450螺纹钢周度产量201620172018201920202021250270290310330350370热卷周度产量201620172018201920202021 需求：五大材表观需求量回落，卷增螺降200400600800100012001400万吨五大品种钢材表观需求20172018201920202021-200-1000100200300400500600螺纹钢表观需求量201620172018201920202021200220240260280300320340360380热卷周度表观消费量201620172018201920202021 需求：房地产增速降低020004000600080001000016/01/0317/01/0318/01/0319/01/0320/01/0321/01/03100大中城市成交土地建筑面积100大中城市:成交土地规划建筑面积:当周值4 per. Mov. Avg. (100大中城市:成交土地规划建筑面积:当周值)万平方米0200400600800100016/01/0317/01/0318/01/0319/01/0320/01/0321/01/0330大中城市商品房成交面积30大中城市:商品房成交面积:当周值4 per. Mov. Avg. (30大中城市:商品房成交面积:当周值)万平方米-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00房地产各项增速房屋施工面积:累计同比%房屋新开工面积:累计同比%房屋竣工面积:累计同比%商品房销售面积:累计同比% 库存：五大材库存由降转增050010001500200025003000350040004500万吨五大品种钢材总库存2017201820192020202105001000150020002500螺纹钢总库存2016201720182019202020210100200300400500600700热卷总库存201620172018201920202021020406080100120140万吨库存:钢坯:唐山:合计2018201920202021 利润：卷螺利润高位回落-5000500100015002000万吨螺纹钢长流程钢厂利润-400-20002004006008001000120014001600元/吨热卷生产利润20172018201920202021 基差：螺纹热卷主力基差大幅走强-500-300-1001003005007009001100元/吨螺纹钢01合约基差：上海现货RB1701RB1801RB1901RB2001RB2101RB2201-250-50150350550元/吨热卷01合约基差：上海现货HC1701HC1801HC1901HC2001HC2101HC2201-35015065011501650元/吨螺纹05合约基差：上海现货RB1605RB1705RB1805RB1905RB2005RB2105RB2205-300-100100300500700元/吨热卷05合约基差：上海现货HC1605HC1705HC1805HC1905HC2005HC2105HC2205 月差：螺纹热卷1-5价差震荡收敛-150-75075150225300375450525600元/吨螺纹钢跨期价差：RB01-RB05RB1701-RB1705RB1801-RB1805RB1901-RB1905RB2001-RB2005RB2101-RB2105RB2201-RB2205-300-200-1000100200300400500600元/吨01卷螺价差HC-RB1501HC-RB1601HC-RB1701HC-RB1801HC-RB1901HC-RB2001HC-RB2101HC-RB2201-150-75075150225300375450元/吨热卷跨期价差：HC01-HC05HC1701-HC1705HC1801-HC1805HC1901-HC1905HC2001-HC2005HC2101-HC2105HC2201-HC2205 铁矿 价格：内外铁矿绝对价格均走低4090140190240290美元/吨铁矿石价格指数:62%Fe:CFR中国北方20162017201820192020202120040060080010001200140016001800元/吨车板价:青岛港:澳大利亚:金布巴粉:61%201620172018201920202021450650850105012501450165018502050元/吨车板价:日照港:澳大利亚:卡拉拉精粉:65%201620172018201920202021400600800100012001400160018002000元/吨车板价:青岛港:巴西:混合粉BRBF:62.5%201620172018201920202021 价格：铁矿主力期价震荡偏弱运行300500700900110013001500元/吨铁矿石09合约季节性走势图I1709I1809I1909I2009I21093004005006007008009001000110012001300元/吨铁矿石01合约季节性走势图I1701I1801I1901I2001I2101I2201300500700900110013001500元/吨铁矿石05合约季节性走势图I1705I1805I1905I2005I2105I2205 供给：巴西铁矿发货量降低，澳洲铁矿发货量稳定，整体宽松偏中性20030040050060070080090010001100万吨铁矿石发货量—巴西201620172018201920202021100012001400160018002000220024002600万吨铁矿石发货量—澳洲+巴西201620172018201920202021020040060080010001200140016001800万吨铁矿石发货量—澳洲201620172018201920