钢矿周报：供给趋紧，驱动成材偏强震荡 铁矿回归产业逻辑，偏弱运行

钢矿周报供给趋紧，驱动成材偏强震荡铁矿回归产业逻辑，偏弱运行黑色研究团队2021年10月18日 钢材：供给逐步收缩，有望偏强震荡，01多单可继续持有核心要点：供给：钢企开工率转降，但五大材产量环比增加，其中螺增卷降，四季度采暖季背景下供应预计进一步趋紧；需求：节假之后五大材表观消费量回暖，但市场氛围较差，成交仍然偏淡库存：五大材整体去库；利润：螺纹和热卷利润回落，但仍维持1000元/吨左右的高利润；价差：螺纹主力基差走强，热卷主力基差震荡，螺纹热卷1-5价差均有所收敛综合看：上周多地现货价格不同程度下调，期价走势震荡。钢企限产持续加严，开工转降，且在采暖季背景下供给依然延续偏紧格局。同时需求有回暖预期，近期多地房贷有所放松、下半年基建不宜悲观。短期看，供减需增预期下，螺纹有望偏强震荡，且高基差下期价有向现货回归预期。操作建议：01合约多单持有。关注变量：限产情况 铁矿：回归产业逻辑，偏弱运行，建议区间操作核心要点：从供给来看，铁矿最新一期澳巴发运量环比降低，到港量回升，疏港量降低；需求端，钢企日均铁水产量回升，铁矿短期需求修复，支撑矿价。但铁矿港口库存持续高位累增。铁矿现价反弹企稳后回落，主力期价同样下挫，主力基差走弱，1-5价差收敛至低位。在现实供需较弱背景下，矿价依然承压，偏弱运行。操作建议：区间操作，可关注1-5正套机会。关注变量：钢企限产情况 钢材 价格：螺纹多地现货价格高位回落30003500400045005000550060006500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海201720182019202020212500300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津2017201820192020202130003500400045005000550060006500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州2017201820192020202125003000350040004500500055006000元/吨价格:方坯:Q235:唐山20172018201920202021 价格：热卷现货价格小幅下调2800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津201720182019202020212800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海201720182019202020212800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州2017201820192020202115002000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨唐山钢坯价格指数201620172018201920202021 价格：盘螺、中板、高线、冷轧现价小幅回调300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:盘螺:Ф8-10:中天:杭州201620172018201920202021300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:中板:普20mm:上海201720182019202020213000350040004500500055006000650070007500元/吨价格:冷轧板卷:1.0mm:上海20172018201920202021300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:高线:6.5:HPB300:杭州20172018201920202021 价格：废钢价格稳中有升，水泥价格继续冲高10001500200025003000350040004500元/吨废钢价格2016201720182019202020217090110130150170190210230点水泥价格指数:全国201620172018201920202021 价格：螺纹和热卷主力合约偏弱震荡2000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨螺纹钢05合约季节性走势图RB1705RB1805RB1905RB2005RB2105RB220520002500300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨热卷01合约季节性走势图HC1701HC1801HC1901HC2001HC2101HC220115002000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨螺纹钢01合约季节性走势图RB1701RB1801RB1901RB2001RB2101RB2201200030004000500060007000元/吨热卷05合约季节性走势图HC1705HC1805HC1905HC2005HC2105HC2205 供给：全国钢厂开工率转降40455055606570758085%全国高炉开工率2016201720182019202020210102030405060708090100%唐山钢厂:高炉开工率20162017201820192020202130405060708090100%唐山钢厂:产能利用率201620172018201920202021 供给：五大材产量环比增加，其中螺增卷降8008509009501000105011001150万吨五大品种钢材产量20172018201920202021200250300350400450螺纹钢周度产量201620172018201920202021260270280290300310320330340350360热卷周度产量201620172018201920202021 需求：节假过后五大材表观需求量回升200400600800100012001400万吨五大品种钢材表观需求20172018201920202021-200-1000100200300400500600螺纹钢表观需求量201620172018201920202021200220240260280300320340360380热卷周度表观消费量201620172018201920202021 需求：房地产增速降低但仍有韧性020004000600080001000016/01/0317/01/0318/01/0319/01/0320/01/0321/01/03100大中城市成交土地建筑面积100大中城市:成交土地规划建筑面积:当周值4 per. Mov. Avg. (100大中城市:成交土地规划建筑面积:当周值)万平方米0200400600800100016/01/0317/01/0318/01/0319/01/0320/01/0321/01/0330大中城市商品房成交面积30大中城市:商品房成交面积:当周值4 per. Mov. Avg. (30大中城市:商品房成交面积:当周值)万平方米-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00房地产各项增速房屋施工面积:累计同比%房屋新开工面积:累计同比%房屋竣工面积:累计同比%商品房销售面积:累计同比% 库存：五大材库存去化050010001500200025003000350040004500万吨五大品种钢材总库存2017201820192020202105001000150020002500螺纹钢总库存2016201720182019202020210100200300400500600700热卷总库存201620172018201920202021020406080100120140万吨库存:钢坯:唐山:合计2018201920202021 利润：卷螺利润高位回落-5000500100015002000万吨螺纹钢长流程钢厂利润-400-20002004006008001000120014001600元/吨热卷生产利润20172018201920202021 基差：螺纹主力基差走强（+91），热卷主力基差震荡（+3）-500-300-1001003005007009001100元/吨螺纹钢01合约基差：上海现货RB1701RB1801RB1901RB2001RB2101RB2201-250-50150350550元/吨热卷01合约基差：上海现货HC1701HC1801HC1901HC2001HC2101HC2201-35015065011501650元/吨螺纹05合约基差：上海现货RB1605RB1705RB1805RB1905RB2005RB2105RB2205-300-100100300500700元/吨热卷05合约基差：上海现货HC1605HC1705HC1805HC1905HC2005HC2105HC2205 月差：卷螺1-5价差收敛-150-75075150225300375450525600元/吨螺纹钢跨期价差：RB01-RB05RB1701-RB1705RB1801-RB1805RB1901-RB1905RB2001-RB2005RB2101-RB2105RB2201-RB2205-300-200-1000100200300400500600元/吨01卷螺价差HC-RB1501HC-RB1601HC-RB1701HC-RB1801HC-RB1901HC-RB2001HC-RB2101HC-RB2201-150-75075150225300375450元/吨热卷跨期价差：HC01-HC05HC1701-HC1705HC1801-HC1805HC1901-HC1905HC2001-HC2005HC2101-HC2105HC2201-HC2205 铁矿 价格：铁矿绝对价格反弹后回落4090140190240290美元/吨铁矿石价格指数:62%Fe:CFR中国北方20162017201820192020202120040060080010001200140016001800元/吨车板价:青岛港:澳大利亚:金布巴粉:61%201620172018201920202021450650850105012501450165018502050元/吨车板价:日照港:澳大利亚:卡拉拉精粉:65%201620172018201920202021400600800100012001400160018002000元/吨车板价:青岛港:巴西:混合粉BRBF:62.5%201620172018201920202021 价格：铁矿主力期价偏弱运行300500700900110013001500元/吨铁矿石09合约季节性走势图I1709I1809I1909I2009I21093004005006007008009001000110012001300元/吨铁矿石01合约季节性走势图I1701I1801I1901I2001I2101I2201300500700900110013001500元/吨铁矿石05合约季节性走势图I1705I1805I1905I2005I2105I2205 供给：巴西铁矿发货量降低，澳洲铁矿发货量降低，整体宽松偏中性20030040050060070080090010001100万吨铁矿石发货量—巴西201620172018201920202021100012001400160018002000220024002600万吨铁矿石发货量—澳洲+巴西201620172018201920202021020040060080010001200140016001800万吨铁矿石发货量—澳洲201620172018201920202021 港口：到港量增加，疏港量降低，港口铁矿累库60080010001200140016001800万吨铁矿石到货量20162017