钢矿周报基本面转好，成材偏强运行铁矿估值偏高，高位震荡黑色研究团队2021年07月19日 钢材：基本面转好，偏强运行，提防市场回调风险核心要点：供给：本周钢企开工率回升，螺纹产量小幅增加，但受压缩粗钢政策影响产量恢复有限；需求：螺纹表观消费量连续两周小幅反弹，受期价提振市场投机消费回升；库存：螺纹厂内连续两周去库，社库持续累加；利润：螺纹热卷利润大幅回升；价差：期螺持续升水，10基差有所收敛，10-1月差震荡综合看：本周现货市场成交活跃，成材价格普涨；在限产预期和去产能回头看的市场消息下，卷螺主力合约走势偏强，但周五工信部再提大宗商品保供稳价，黑色系整体回调。七月下游仍处季节性淡季，但表需连续两周反弹，供需趋紧的市场预期下，钢价偏强运行，需提防政策调控带来的回调风险。关注变量：需求端，压缩粗钢，政策回调 铁矿：高位震荡，提防市场回调风险核心要点：供需错配，需求利好：从供给来看，铁矿最新一期澳巴总发运量环比减少，到港量增加但疏港量小幅减少；钢企高炉开工率增加，日均铁水产量增加，铁矿需求恢复但受限，铁矿港口连续三周累库。在压缩粗钢的预期下，下半年需求有下滑的风险。矿价依然高估，铁矿主力期价震荡上行，现价高位震荡，基差有所修复，远月贴水收窄。总体上看，铁矿供需持续错配，再加高基差，长期利多矿价。但估值偏高，驱动不强，铁矿短期高位震荡，此外提防政策调控带来的回调风险。关注变量：限产政策，政策调控风险 钢材：基本面转好，偏强运行，提防市场回调风险 价格：螺纹现货价格上涨30003500400045005000550060006500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海201720182019202020212500300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津2017201820192020202130003500400045005000550060006500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州2017201820192020202125003000350040004500500055006000元/吨价格:方坯:Q235:唐山20172018201920202021 价格：热卷现货价格上行2800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津201720182019202020212800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海201720182019202020212800330038004300480053005800630068007300元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州2017201820192020202115002000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨唐山钢坯价格指数201620172018201920202021 价格：盘螺、高线、冷轧、中板价格上调300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:盘螺:Ф8-10:中天:杭州201620172018201920202021300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:中板:普20mm:上海201720182019202020213000350040004500500055006000650070007500元/吨价格:冷轧板卷:1.0mm:上海20172018201920202021300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨价格:高线:6.5:HPB300:杭州20172018201920202021 价格：废钢价格稳中有涨，水泥价格持续下跌10001500200025003000350040004500元/吨废钢价格201620172018201920202021120125130135140145150155160165170点水泥价格指数:全国201620172018201920202021 价格：螺纹和热卷主力合约价格偏强运行2000250030003500400045005000550060006500元/吨螺纹钢10合约季节性走势图RB1710RB1810RB1910RB2010RB211020002500300035004000450050005500600065007000元/吨热卷10合约季节性走势图HC1710HC1810HC1910HC2010HC2110 供给：钢厂开工率回升40455055606570758085%全国高炉开工率2016201720182019202020210102030405060708090100%唐山钢厂:高炉开工率20162017201820192020202130405060708090100%唐山钢厂:产能利用率201620172018201920202021 供给：五大品种钢材周度总产量环比小幅增加8008509009501000105011001150万吨五大品种钢材产量20172018201920202021200250300350400450螺纹钢周度产量201620172018201920202021260270280290300310320330340350360热卷周度产量201620172018201920202021 供给：进口小幅增加，出口大幅增加，净进出口提高050100150200250300350万吨进口数量:钢材:当月值201620172018201920202021020040060080010001200万吨出口数量:钢材:当月值201620172018201920202021020040060080010001200万吨净进出口数量:钢材：当月值201620172018201920202021 需求：五大材表观需求量再度反弹200400600800100012001400万吨五大品种钢材表观需求20172018201920202021-200-1000100200300400500600螺纹钢表观需求量201620172018201920202021200220240260280300320340360380热卷周度表观消费量201620172018201920202021 需求：房地产增速降低但韧性仍较好01000200030004000500060007000800016/01/0317/01/0318/01/0319/01/0320/01/0321/01/03100大中城市成交土地建筑面积100大中城市:成交土地规划建筑面积:当周值4 per. Mov. Avg. (100大中城市:成交土地规划建筑面积:当周值)万平方米0200400600800100016/01/0317/01/0318/01/0319/01/0320/01/0321/01/0330大中城市商品房成交面积30大中城市:商品房成交面积:当周值4 per. Mov. Avg. (30大中城市:商品房成交面积:当周值)万平方米-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00房地产各项增速房屋施工面积:累计同比%房屋新开工面积:累计同比%房屋竣工面积:累计同比%商品房销售面积:累计同比% 库存：螺纹出现去库，钢坯持续累库050010001500200025003000350040004500万吨五大品种钢材总库存2017201820192020202105001000150020002500螺纹钢总库存2016201720182019202020210100200300400500600700热卷总库存201620172018201920202021020406080100120140万吨库存:钢坯:唐山:合计2018201920202021 利润：卷螺生产利润大幅回升-5000500100015002000万吨螺纹钢长流程钢厂利润-400-20002004006008001000120014001600元/吨热卷生产利润20172018201920202021 基差：卷螺主力期价升水，螺纹基差有所收窄，卷螺基差持续走扩-300-150015030045060075090010501200135015001650元/吨螺纹钢10合约基差：上海HRB400 20mmRB1410RB1510RB1610RB1710RB1810RB1910RB2010RB2110-200-1000100200300400500600700元/吨热卷10合约基差：上海Q235B 4.75mmHC1610HC1710HC1810HC1910HC2010HC2110 月差：螺纹10-1价差震荡，热卷10-1价差收窄，卷螺价差高位-150-75075150225300375450525600675元/吨螺纹钢跨期价差：RB10-RB01RB1510-RB1601RB1610-RB1701RB1710-RB1801RB1810-RB1901RB1910-RB2001RB2010-RB2101RB2110-RB2201-120-60060120180240300360420元/吨热卷跨期价差：HC10-HC01HC1710-HC1801HC1810-HC1901HC1910-HC2001HC2010-HC2101HC2110-HC2201-300-100100300500元/吨10卷螺价差HC-RB1610HC-RB1710HC-RB1810HC-RB1910HC-RB2010HC-RB2110 铁矿：高位震荡，提防市场回调风险 价格：铁矿绝对价格高位震荡，持续高估4090140190240290美元/吨铁矿石价格指数:62%Fe:CFR中国北方20162017201820192020202120040060080010001200140016001800元/吨车板价:青岛港:澳大利亚:金布巴粉:61%201620172018201920202021450650850105012501450165018502050元/吨车板价:日照港:澳大利亚:卡拉拉精粉:65%201620172018201920202021400600800100012001400160018002000元/吨车板价:青岛港:巴西:混合粉BRBF:62.5%201620172018201920202021 价格：铁矿主力期价震荡上行300500700900110013001500元/吨铁矿石09合约季节性走势图I1709I1809I1909I2009I21093004005006007008009001000110012001300元/吨铁矿石01合约季节性走势图I1701I1801I1901I2001I2101I2201 供给：澳巴铁矿总发货量环比减少20030040050060070080090010001100万吨铁矿石发货量—巴西201620172018201920202021100012001400160018002000220024002600万吨铁矿石发货量—澳洲+巴西201620172018201920202021020040060080010001200140016001800万吨铁矿石发货量—澳洲201620172018201920202021 港口：到港量增加，疏港量减少，港口铁矿持续累库60080010001200140016001800万吨铁矿石到货量201620172018201920202021200220240260280300320340万吨/天铁矿石日均疏港量（41港口）201620172018201920202021600080